Citation:
Elmar Kutsch, Harvey Maylor, Birgit Weyer, Jonathan Lupson, Performers, trackers, lemmings and the lost: Sustained false optimism in forecasting project outcomes — Evidence from a quasi-experiment, International Journal of Project Management, Volume 29, Issue 8, December 2011, Pages 1070-1081
Abstract:
The consistently successful delivery of projects remains an ambition that many
organisations do not achieve. Whilst the reasons behind project failure are
many, one recognised factor is the ‘planning fallacy’ – over-optimism in the
planning phase of a project. Whilst the planning phase of a project may be a
battle for acceptance and resource allocation, the execution phase is a battle
for delivery. Based on both qualitative and quantitative data gathered from a
project management simulation, this study set out to establish whether optimism
bias persists beyond the planning phase and into the execution phase, and, if
so, to explore the reasons why. The results confirm the extent and impact of
optimism bias in initial project planning. More importantly, the contribution of
this study is to demonstrate on-going or sustained false opt
