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Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/6856

Document Type: Article
Title: Performers, trackers, lemmings and the lost: Sustained false optimism in forecasting project outcomes - Evidence from a quasi-experiment
Authors: Kutsch, Elmar
Maylor, Harvey
Weyer, Birgit
Lupson, Jonathan
Issue Date: 2011
Citation: Elmar Kutsch, Harvey Maylor, Birgit Weyer, Jonathan Lupson, Performers, trackers, lemmings and the lost: Sustained false optimism in forecasting project outcomes — Evidence from a quasi-experiment, International Journal of Project Management, Volume 29, Issue 8, December 2011, Pages 1070-1081
Abstract: The consistently successful delivery of projects remains an ambition that many organisations do not achieve. Whilst the reasons behind project failure are many, one recognised factor is the ‘planning fallacy’ – over-optimism in the planning phase of a project. Whilst the planning phase of a project may be a battle for acceptance and resource allocation, the execution phase is a battle for delivery. Based on both qualitative and quantitative data gathered from a project management simulation, this study set out to establish whether optimism bias persists beyond the planning phase and into the execution phase, and, if so, to explore the reasons why. The results confirm the extent and impact of optimism bias in initial project planning. More importantly, the contribution of this study is to demonstrate on-going or sustained false opt
URI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijproman.2011.01.010
http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/6856
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