Abstract:
This thesis investigates the benefit
of risk-based
decision
methods
in
engineering
decisions. A thorough literature
review
identified the major
issues and
limitations in
current methods. Consequently a more comprehensive model was
developed to account
for the complexities of real
life decision-making. The
enhancements introduced to the
model
include identifying
and evaluating stakeholder
influences, decision
objectives,
criteria and preferences
between
criteria and
decision
outcomes.
Monitoring
and
controlling
important
parameters
during implementation is
also
included to ensure
objectives are met and risks controlled.
Tools
and techniques were
identified to support
decision-making
within the new model.
The
research
focuses
on
how
available
techniques can improve
engineering decision-making.
The
model was applied to four
case studies analysing real
life, "live" decision
problems
in bridge
management and pipeline management. These
confirmed the relevance and
importance of the model enhancements. The
practicality of the methods, their benefits
and limitations
were evaluated such that the proposed model was enhanced further. The
enhanced model was shown to bring
enhanced understanding to all
four
case studies and
made the decisions
more rational, thorough and auditable.
The fifth
case study
reviewed
how
unsupported
decisions
are currently made within the sponsoring
company. This involved
a
detailed desktop analysis of past projects and interviews
with
senior engineers and provided
further
evidence, which emphasised the value of using
the decision model.
General
guidelines were
developed based
on the case study experiences to help the
decision-maker identify the level
of analysis required
for different types of
decision
problems. These were
defined
as applicability matrices.
The benefit
of using a third
party
facilitator in
each of the case studies was
identified in terms of the roles of
leader,
liaison, disseminator, spokesman and
disturbance handler. The balance between these
five
roles through the stages of the decision process was
found to be important to ensure
the facilitator does not
dominate the decision.
