Probabilistic risk assessment modelling for passenger aircraft fire safety

Abstract

This thesis describes the development of a computer simulation model for the investigation of airliner fire accident safety. The aim of the work has been to create a computer-based analysis tool that generates representative aircraft accident scenarios and then simulates their outcome in terms of passenger injuries and fatalities. The details of the accident scenarios are formulated to closely match the type of events that are known to have occurred in aircraft accidents over the last 40 years. This information has been obtained by compiling a database and undertaking detailed analysis of approximately 200 airliner fire accidents. In addition to utilising historical data, the modelling work has incorporated many of the key findings obtained from experimental research undertaken by the world's air safety community. An unusual feature of the simulation process is that all critical aspects of the accident scenario have been analysed and catered for in the formative stages of the programme development. This has enabled complex effects, such as cabin crash disruption, impact trauma injuries, fire spread, smoke incapacitation and passenger evacuation to be simulated in a balanced and integrated manner. The study is intended to further the general appreciation and understanding of the complex events that lead to fatalities in aircraft fire accidents. This is achieved by analysing all contributory factors that are likely to arise in real fire accident scenarios and undertaking quantitative risk assessment through the use of novel simulation methods. Future development of the research could potentially enable the undertaking of a systematic exploration and appraisal of the effectiveness of both current and future aircraft fire safety policies.