Abstract:
Different levels of congesti'on are 'encountered in ports all over the
world and particularly in developing countries. Depending on the
volume of traffic flow over time, the changes of development in the
economy and industrial activity and the random arrival and service
pattern of ships; the optimum berthing capacity resulting in minimum
cost at any future time period has to be determined to avoid undesirable
repercussions.
The existing methods fail to provide the links between the aggregate
economy, demand and optimal berthing capacity for all time periods
of the planning horizon, and conventional techniques based on static
frameworks are used to arrive at optimal strategies for specific times
into the future.
This study is an attempt to remedy those difficulties and relate
future demand to optimal berthing capacity in an interactive dynamic
fashion.
Three models are developed: a forecasting model linking seaborne
trade to gross domestic product, population, productions consumption
and elasticity of demand;, a simulation model relating the various
demand levels to different port configurations; and an investment
model relating the resulting congestion cost to capital cost, where
an optimal strategy in berthing capacity is achieved for the years
19859 19909 1995 and 2000.
The last model has been extended using the above mentioned points in
time to result in an optimal berthing capacity for any future time
period within the planning horizon 1985 - 2000. This model is
validated through forecasting, simulating and appraising the 1992
and 1998 results and reducing the amount, costs and time of work by
75 per cent.
