Abstract:
Future water resource management is of primary importance to society, economy and the
environment. Planning for climate change and adapting to those changes, which requires an
understanding of the complex consequences of climate change for the hydrology and human
and environmental uses of water, is important for a sustainable future. This research study
holistically explored possible implications of global climate change and regional socioeconomic
change on water resource management in the contrasting regions of East Anglia and
North West England. A model was developed to estimate the impacts on the catchment
hydrology and on the robustness of the regional water resources system as a consequence of
future changes. For a range of plausible futures, the hydrological responses are mainly
affected by changes in climate, whereas the impacts on water resources are primarily
determined by socio-economic factors that can exacerbate or ameliorate the impacts of
climate. Under economically-focused futures, water demand increases at the expense of the
environment’s allocation of water, and the water quality is deteriorated, which compromises
current environmental legislative requirements. Under environmentally-focused futures the
environment is protected but at the expense of society and the economy. East Anglia is
generally more vulnerable than North West England because water supply is scarcer, river
flows are lower and it has a much larger arable agricultural area; e.g. under most futures there
is a deficit between the water supply and demand. Anticipatory adaptation options within the
context of the storylines of each socio-economic scenario were generally successful in
managing water demand and supply and avoiding conflicts between the water users. This
study illustrates the importance of regional integrated assessments which allow for future
socio-economic changes in evaluating the impacts of climate change on the hydrology, water
environment and water resources.
