Citation:
Holman IP, Nicholls RN, Berry PM, et al., (2005) A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: Part II. Results. Climatic Change, Volume 71, Issue 1-2, July 2005, pp. 43-73
Abstract:
The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and
North West England’ (RegIS) integrated assessment (IA) investigated climate and
socio-economic impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions
between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity,
coastal zones and water resources). The baseline and two contrasting climate
change scenarios (with and without regional socio-economic change scenarios)
were investigated. RegIS showed that climate change, without policy adaptation,
could lead to severe flood impacts in East Anglia, and significant agricultural
abandonment. Despite yield changes, cropping is generally insensitive to
climate, but very sensitive to socio-economic change. There is increased
seasonality to river flows, compounded by increased urbanisation and irrigation
demand. The responses of biodiversity to climate change are regional, habitat
and species-specific, but much of the future of biodiversity in these regions
will depend on planned adaptation in the other sectors. Numerous examples of
public engagement with the global change sphere represent the real outward value
of RegIS, due to the significant uncertainties and limitations to knowledge in
this first regional IA which prevented results of the detail, specificity and
confidence that decision-makers required. However, with further investment and
refinement, regional IA’s will increasingly provide such o
