What can scenario modelling tell us about future European scale agricultural land use, and what not?

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dc.contributor.author Audsley, Eric -
dc.contributor.author Pearn, Kerry R. -
dc.contributor.author Simota, C. -
dc.contributor.author Cojocaru, G. -
dc.contributor.author Koutsidou, E. -
dc.contributor.author Rounsevell, M. D. A. -
dc.contributor.author Trnka, M. -
dc.contributor.author Alexandrov, V. -
dc.date.accessioned 2011-10-20T23:22:22Z
dc.date.available 2011-10-20T23:22:22Z
dc.date.issued 2006-04-01T00:00:00Z -
dc.identifier.citation E. Audsley, K.R. Pearn, C. Simota, G. Cojocaru, E. Koutsidou, M.D.A. Rounsevell, M. Trnka and V. Alexandrov, What can scenario modelling tell us about future European scale agricultural land use, and what not?, Environmental Science & Policy, Volume 9, Issue 2, Assessing Climate Change Effects on Land Use and Ecosystems in Europe, April 2006, Pages 148-162. -
dc.identifier.issn 1462-9011 -
dc.identifier.uri http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2005.11.008 -
dc.identifier.uri http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/1867
dc.description.abstract Given scenarios describing future climates and socio-techno-economics, this study estimates the consequences for agricultural land use, combining models of crop growth and farm decision making to predict profitability over the whole of Europe, driven solely by soil and climate at each location. Each location is then classified by its profitability as intensive or extensive agriculture or not suitable for agriculture. The main effects of both climate and socio- economics were in the agriculturally marginal areas of Europe. The results showed the effect of different climates is relatively small, whereas there are large variations when economic scenarios are included. Only Finland's agricultural area significantly responds to climate by increasing at the expense of forests in several scenarios. Several locations show more difference due to climate model (PCM versus HadCM3) than emission scenario, because of large differences in predicted precipitation, notably the Ardennes switching to arable in HadCM3. Scenario modelling has identified several such regions where there is a need to be watchful, but few where all of the scenario results agree, suggesting great uncertainty in future projections. Thus, it has not been possible to predict any futures, though all results agree that in Central Europe, changes are likely to be relatively small. en_UK
dc.language.iso en_UK -
dc.publisher Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. en_UK
dc.subject Climate change en_UK
dc.subject Agricultural land use en_UK
dc.subject Scenarios en_UK
dc.subject Crop model en_UK
dc.subject Farm decision model en_UK
dc.title What can scenario modelling tell us about future European scale agricultural land use, and what not? en_UK
dc.type Article -


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