Understanding factors that influence energy saving campaigns using theory and agent based modelling.

Utilising data from a sample of UK HEI students, this study investigates factors that influence informational interventions for energy saving. It makes an original contribution by developing an original method for testing theory and explaining how known persuasion and behavioural variables can interact to influence behavioural outcomes. It achieves this by integrating two empirically established theories—the Theory of Planned Behaviour and the Elaboration Likelihood Model—and using these, develops an agent-based model based for explaining behavioural response to an energy saving intervention. In a first phase, questionnaire surveys based on the stated theories are used to elicit essential information relating to energy use among students. Findings demonstrate that both theories can be used successfully as a framework for understanding how information-based interventions influence energy use. The second phase involving agent-based modelling demonstrated that although the adoption of energy saving behaviour is time-dependent, it is neither proportional to population size nor to time. Further findings show that subjective norms such as the opinions of important others, significantly influence students’ intentions to save energy; and maximum levels of peripheral cues, personal relevance and cognitive ability are individual factors which determine the highest levels of aggregate energy saving. Interrelationships observed among variables indicate that the degree to which cognitive, social, environmental, and situational factors etc. interact in the face of persuasive information, may be more instrumental to achieving desirable energy behaviours than the communication of useful information or even, the information itself. Ideas and findings from the study will be useful for informing the design of behavioural interventions. Further research to investigate the affective tendencies of subjective norms and any effects on attitude and the intention-behaviour gap will be useful for gaining more insight which may help extend the Theory of Planned Behaviour.