On the underlying dynamics of traffic conflicts related to stochastic behaviour

The aim of this paper is to analyse why and how air traffic conflicts occur as a result of the stochastic behaviour of both the ownship and the intruder and to show how system-level characteristics can be derived from such an analysis. Ensemble dynamics in a given traffic scenario have already been analysed using multi-agent simulations by many; however, such an analysis is hardly ever backed up and interpreted in terms of an analytical study. By making use of directional conflict probability maps, characteristics of integral, system-level quantities can be explained, providing further insight into the relationship of speed distribution parameters and system performance quantities, namely, safety and throughput.