Abstract:
The potential impact of climate change by the year 2050 on intensive livestock
systems in Britain is assessed through the use of simulation models of farming
systems. The submodels comprise livestock feeding, livestock thermal balance and
the thermal balance of controlled environment buildings and a stochastic weather
generator. These are integrated to form system models for growing pigs and
broiler chickens. They are applied to scenarios typical of SE England, which is
the warmest region of the country and represents the worst case. For both
species the frequency of severe heat stress is substantially increased, with a
consequent risk of mortality. To offset this, it would be necessary to reduce
stocking densities considerably, or to invest in improved ventilation or cooling
equipment. Other effects on production are likely to be small.
