A simple drought risk analysis procedure to supplement water resources management planning in England and Wales

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author Turner, Sean W. D.
dc.contributor.author Jeffrey, Paul J.
dc.date.accessioned 2020-10-16T15:38:25Z
dc.date.available 2020-10-16T15:38:25Z
dc.date.issued 2020-10-23
dc.identifier.citation urner SW, Jeffrey PJ. (2020) A simple drought risk analysis procedure to supplement water resources management planning in England and Wales. Water and Environment Journal, Available online 23 September 2020. en_UK
dc.identifier.issn 1747-6585
dc.identifier.uri https://doi.org/10.1111/wej.12639
dc.identifier.uri http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/15896
dc.description.abstract The current ‘Deployable Output’ approach for assessing water resources system performance in England and Wales is a practical, communicable means for assessing the adequacy of a water supply system and determining the relative benefits of proposed system enhancements. A recognised flaw with this approach is that it fails to characterise the severity of potential supply shortfalls, leading to mischaracterisation of risks and benefits associated with alternative candidate investments. Here, we propose a Monte Carlo procedure that could supplement the existing process by exposing the magnitude (% water demand unserved) and duration (number of days) of supply curtailments under a range of drought scenarios. The method is demonstrated using a realistic, stylised water resources system and a discrete number of infrastructure investments. Results demonstrate that vulnerability assessments can expose previously unidentified risks that might radically alter a planner’s estimate of the cost‐effectiveness of a particular investment. en_UK
dc.language.iso en en_UK
dc.publisher Wiley en_UK
dc.rights Attribution 4.0 International *
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ *
dc.subject water resources systems analysis en_UK
dc.subject vulnerability en_UK
dc.subject stochastic hydrology en_UK
dc.subject risk assessment en_UK
dc.title A simple drought risk analysis procedure to supplement water resources management planning in England and Wales en_UK
dc.type Article en_UK


Files in this item

The following license files are associated with this item:

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Attribution 4.0 International Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 4.0 International

Search CERES


Browse

My Account

Statistics