The strategic context of the three major Gulf carriers

This paper investigates the still evolving strategic trajectories and context of the three major Gulf carriers Emirates Airline, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways. The paper utilizes data from a Delphi study conducted by the author in 2013 and 2014 which looked in part at the likely strategic future prospects of these three carriers. The study findings are considered in the current strategic context of all three carriers five years later in mid-2019. The findings of this analysis reveal that the wild card scenario of a blockage of Qatar by its neighbors was not identified in the study; however, many of the key findings and forecasts around liberalization, protectionism, alliance membership and global industry impacts all retain valuable and salient insights into their strategic contexts. This paper helps to illustrate the inherent challenges that accompany strategic forecasting, particularly for a dynamic industry like global aviation where geopolitics plays a central role. This is particularly true of emerging air markets that are not data rich, static or readily predictable. This paper concludes that the key industry insights gained from a strategic forecasting exercise such as this study outweigh concerns and issues of forecast accuracy. Much can be learned when forecast accuracy is placed into a secondary position behind industry insights gained. This is certainly the case when the three major Gulf carriers are the prime focus.