Facilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modelling

Show simple item record

dc.contributor.author Hassall, Kirsty L.
dc.contributor.author Dailey, Gordon
dc.contributor.author Zawadzka, Joanna
dc.contributor.author Milne, Alice E.
dc.contributor.author Harris, Jim A.
dc.contributor.author Corstanje, Ron
dc.contributor.author Whitmore, Andrew P.
dc.date.accessioned 2019-10-09T11:30:23Z
dc.date.available 2019-10-09T11:30:23Z
dc.date.issued 2019-10-01
dc.identifier.citation Hassall KL, Dailey G, Zawadzka J, Milne AE, Harris JA, Corstanje R and Whitmore AP. Facilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modelling. Environmental Modelling and Software, Volume 122, December 2019, Article number 104539 en_UK
dc.identifier.issn 1364-8152
dc.identifier.uri https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104539
dc.identifier.uri http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/14598
dc.description.abstract Expert opinion is increasingly being used to inform Bayesian Belief Networks, in particular to define the conditional dependencies modelled by the graphical structure. The elicitation of such expert opinion remains a major challenge due to both the quantity of information required and the ability of experts to quantify subjective beliefs effectively. In this work, we introduce a method designed to initialise conditional probability tables based on a small number of simple questions that capture the overall shape of a conditional probability distribution before enabling the expert to refine their results in an efficient way. These methods have been incorporated into a software Application for Conditional probability Elicitation (ACE), freely available at https://github.com/KirstyLHassall/ACE Hassall (2019) en_UK
dc.language.iso en en_UK
dc.publisher Elsevier en_UK
dc.rights Attribution 4.0 International *
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ *
dc.subject Bayes nets en_UK
dc.subject Belief networks en_UK
dc.subject Expert elicitation en_UK
dc.subject Conditional probability tables en_UK
dc.title Facilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modelling en_UK
dc.type Article en_UK


Files in this item

The following license files are associated with this item:

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record

Attribution 4.0 International Except where otherwise noted, this item's license is described as Attribution 4.0 International

Search CERES


Browse

My Account

Statistics