Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces

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dc.contributor.author Fronzek, Stefan
dc.contributor.author Carter, Timothy R.
dc.contributor.author Pirttioja, Nina
dc.contributor.author Alkemade, Rob
dc.contributor.author Audsley, Eric
dc.contributor.author Bugmann, Harald
dc.contributor.author Florke, Martina
dc.contributor.author Holman, Ian
dc.contributor.author Honda, Yasushi
dc.contributor.author Ito, Akihiko
dc.contributor.author Janes-Bassett, Victoria
dc.contributor.author Lafond, Valentine
dc.contributor.author Leemans, Rik
dc.contributor.author Mokrech, Marc
dc.contributor.author Nunez, Sarahi
dc.contributor.author Sandars, Daniel
dc.contributor.author Snell, Rebecca
dc.contributor.author Takahashi, Kiyoshi
dc.contributor.author Tanaka, Akemi
dc.contributor.author Wimmer, Florian
dc.contributor.author Yoshikawa, Minoru
dc.date.accessioned 2018-11-06T16:41:22Z
dc.date.available 2018-11-06T16:41:22Z
dc.date.issued 2018-10-02
dc.identifier.citation Stefan Fronzek, Timothy R. Carter, Nina Pirttioja, et al., Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces. Regional Environmental Change, March 2019, Volume 19, Issue 3, pp. 679–693 en_UK
dc.identifier.issn 1436-3798
dc.identifier.uri https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1421-8
dc.identifier.uri http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/13622
dc.description.abstract Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use. en_UK
dc.language.iso en en_UK
dc.publisher Springer en_UK
dc.rights Attribution 4.0 International *
dc.rights.uri http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ *
dc.subject Impact model en_UK
dc.subject Sensitivity analysis en_UK
dc.subject Temperature en_UK
dc.subject Precipitation en_UK
dc.subject Population en_UK
dc.subject Gross domestic product (GDP) en_UK
dc.title Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces en_UK
dc.type Article en_UK


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