Predicting and visualizing cost propagation due to engineering design changes

Abstract

During product development changes in the initial design are ubiquitous. The ability to predict such changes, along with the expected costs, is a challenge on its own. This challenge increases exponentially when a single design change on one element of the system propagates to other components. As change propagates, so does the cost associated with it; where cost is more than just financial. A number of knowledge-based methods have been developed in the past that assist in the prediction of how change propagates through a system, and the impact that it can have on other components. None of the methods developed, however, considers how cost propagates due to design changes. This paper presents a novel methodology for predicting, visualizing, and assessing the propagation of change and the cost associated with it. As part of the methodology, a new method, CP2, has been developed to calculate the propagated costs. The methodology has been applied to a conceptual example of a simple system to demonstrate the procedure and the use of the methods. The visualization of the results arising from this methodology is also demonstrated as a mechanism for design decision-making.