Stochastic prediction of offshore wind farm LCOE through an integrated cost model

Show simple item record Ioannou, Anastasia Angus, Andrew Brennan, Feargal P. 2017-03-27T13:41:52Z 2017-03-27T13:41:52Z 2017-03-09
dc.identifier.citation Ioannou A, Angus A, Brennan F, Stochastic prediction of offshore wind farm LCOE through an integrated cost model, Energy Procedia, Volume 107, February 2017, Pages 383-389. en_UK
dc.identifier.issn 1876-6102
dc.description.abstract Common deterministic cost of energy models applied in offshore wind energy installations usually disregard the effect of uncertainty of key input variables – associated with OPEX, CAPEX, energy generation and other financial variables – on the calculation of levelized cost of electricity (LCOE). The present study aims at expanding a deterministic cost of energy model to systematically account for stochastic inputs. To this end, Monte Carlo simulations are performed to derive the joint probability distributions of LCOE, allowing for the estimation of probabilities of exceeding set thresholds of LCOE, determining certain confidence intervals. The results of this study stress the importance of appropriate statistical modelling of stochastic variables in order to reduce modelling uncertainties and contribute to a better informed decision making in renewable energy investments. en_UK
dc.language.iso en en_UK
dc.publisher Elsevier en_UK
dc.rights Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0) You are free to: Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format, Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially. The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms. Under the following terms: Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. Information: No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
dc.subject Offshore wind farm en_UK
dc.subject probabilistic cost model en_UK
dc.subject Monte Carlo simulation en_UK
dc.subject levelised cost of electricity en_UK
dc.subject stochastic inputs en_UK
dc.title Stochastic prediction of offshore wind farm LCOE through an integrated cost model en_UK
dc.type Article en_UK

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