Abstract:
A methodology has been developed for predicting aircraft safety and reliability
incorporating both C.C.F.s(Common-Cause Failures), and phased missions. Failure
behaviour of an aircraft, or its systems due to both independent failures and C.C.F.s
are modelled by the Markov process, and simulated using Monte Carlo method with
the robust variance reduction techniques. Prediction of safety and reliability is made
through discrete-event simulation of aircraft operations.
Validation was made by comparing the predicted safety and reliability results of
B767 ETOPS aircraft propulsion system, using the developed methodology, to those
obtained from the analysis of real operation data. The credibility and the accuracy of
the developed methodology are shown through the comparison of results.
A case study was conducted for investigating the safety and reliability of the
propulsion system of two-, three- and four-engined aircraft using the developed
methodology. The case study produced valuable results concerning the safety of
ETOPS flight, which were not previously known. These results were able to be used
for further trade studies of aircraft design to decide the number of engines, and also
for establishing new regulations for ETOPS flights.
