Meta-analysis of climate impacts and uncertainty on crop yields in Europe

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dc.contributor.author Knox, Jerry W.
dc.contributor.author Daccache, Andre
dc.contributor.author Hess, Tim M.
dc.contributor.author Haro Monteagudo, David
dc.date.accessioned 2016-12-06T10:00:43Z
dc.date.available 2016-12-06T10:00:43Z
dc.date.issued 2016-11-11
dc.identifier.citation Knox J., Daccache A., Hess T., Haro D. (2016) Meta-analysis of climate impacts and uncertainty on crop yields in Europe, Environmental Research Letters, Volume 11, Number 11 Article 113004 en_UK
dc.identifier.issn 1748-9326
dc.identifier.uri http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/11/113004
dc.identifier.uri http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/11085
dc.description.abstract Future changes in temperature, rainfall and soil moisture could threaten agricultural land use and crop productivity in Europe, with major consequences for food security. We assessed the projected impacts of climate change on the yield of seven major crop types (viz wheat, barley, maize, potato, sugar beet, rice and rye) grown in Europe using a systematic review (SR) and meta-analysis of data reported in 41 original publications from an initial screening of 1748 studies. Our approach adopted an established SR procedure developed by the Centre for Evidence Based Conservation constrained by inclusion criteria and defined methods for literature searches, data extraction, meta-analysis and synthesis. Whilst similar studies exist to assess climate impacts on crop yield in Africa and South Asia, surprisingly, no comparable synthesis has been undertaken for Europe. Based on the reported results (n = 729) we show that the projected change in average yield in Europe for the seven crops by the 2050s is +8%. For wheat and sugar beet, average yield changes of +14% and +15% are projected, respectively. There were strong regional differences with crop impacts in northern Europe being higher (+14%) and more variable compared to central (+6%) and southern (+5) Europe. Maize is projected to suffer the largest negative mean change in southern Europe (−11%). Evidence of climate impacts on yield was extensive for wheat, maize, sugar beet and potato, but very limited for barley, rice and rye. The implications for supporting climate adaptation policy and informing climate impacts crop science research in Europe are discussed. en_UK
dc.language.iso en en_UK
dc.publisher IOP en_UK
dc.rights Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence. Any further distribution of this work must maintain attribution to the author(s) and the title of the work, journal citation and DOI. You are free to: Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially. The licensor cannot revoke these freedoms as long as you follow the license terms. Under the following terms: Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use. No additional restrictions — You may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
dc.title Meta-analysis of climate impacts and uncertainty on crop yields in Europe en_UK
dc.type Article en_UK


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