Abstract:
This thesis is concerned with understanding the role and utilisation of cost
engineering knowledge for generating cost estimates with respect to long life
cycle, complex hardware products. lt examines whether there is a formal
structure to the
reasoning process of experts as they use judgement and
whether this process can be represented within a model. The aim is to develop
a framework that formalises cost engineering knowledge to facilitate its reuse.
A literature review examines the role of expert knowledge and judgement for
generating cost estimates. The review identifies that there are mixed views on
how
knowledge is used and managed. Using an industrial case study
approach, the author identifies the cost estimation practices for a new military
air system. The study establishes that it is essential to capture assumptions
and associated rationale to facilitate knowledge reuse. Experts use an analogy
based reasoning process to make judgments and assumptions. The reasoning
process became the focus of detailed studies using experts from across
industry, resulting in a generic model. The model, known as an inference
structure, was implemented within a software tool. This provided a formalised
framework to
represent, capture, and reuse assumptions and associated
rationale.
The thesis concludes that assumptions and rationale need to be captured
during the development of cost estimates to facilitate knowledge reuse. There
is a formal, generic reasoning process that experts use when applying their
judgement. The results provide industry with a structured, consistent approach
to the formalisation and reuse of cost engineering knowledge. By adopting this
approach, companies can develop consistent estimates that will in turn improve
decision-making across industry.
