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Item Open Access What are the Critical Success Factors Required for Supporting an Information Security Incident Reporting Maturity Model?(Cranfield University, 2017-01-05 11:37) Humphrey, MikePoster presentation at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium.It could be argued that in today’s world information is ubiquitous and, increasingly for individuals, organisations and nations, seen as an asset which has value. It may be the case that information has always been considered of value, as evidenced by early iterations of cyphers and encryption in Egyptian times, as well as Caesar cyphers and biblical cyphers (Singh, 1999). The main difference between then and today is the sheer volume of information available and the numerous methods and devices that access that information. An ever increasing proportion of that information is now stored, processed and accessed via technology. Terms such as ‘the cloud’, ‘bring your own device and ‘smart phone’ are part of everyday language. A collective noun ‘Cyberspace’ commonly describes the widespread use and reliance upon computer networks and it may be possible to consider cyberspace as an increasing element of a new engine of economic growth and, to some extent, a contributory factor to the modern industrial revolution as described by Jenson, (1993). To counter the threats to information in cyberspace, and to exploit the benefits the internet can bring, requires a greater understanding of the threats and risks. Unfortunately, with the growth of technology there are those who seek to exploit that information for financial gain and organised crime, “If there is a single cross-cutting issue that has changed the landscape for serious and organised crime and our response against it, it is the growth in scale and speed of internet communication technologies.”(www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk) Although high profile events involving cyberspace are reported in the media; it is strongly suspected many others are not. Due to the uncertain nature of the true scale of information security incidents through under reporting, there is a subsequent lack of sufficient empirical data to make reasoned judgements for risk assessment and risk management.It is the author’s belief that due to the uncertain nature of the true scale of information security incidents through under reporting, there is a subsequent lack of sufficient empirical data to make reasoned judgements for risk assessment and risk management. 1. The cloud definition is described in NIST Special Publication 800-146 Sept 2011. Cloud computing is a model for enabling ubiquitous, convenient, on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computing resources (e.g., networks, servers, storage, applications, and services) that can be rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort or service provider interaction. This cloud model is composed of five essential characteristics, three service models, and four deployment models. http://csrc.nist.gov/publications/nistpubs/800-145/SP800-145.pdf.…viewed 8/3/15. 2. Bring your Own Device. The practice of allowing the employees of an organization to use their own computers, smartphones, or other devices for work purposes: http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/BYOD last viewed 2/5/15 3. Smart phone. A mobile phone that performs many of the functions of a computer, typically having a touchscreen interface, internet access and an operating system capable of running downloaded apps. http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/smartphone 8/3/15 4. Cyberspace. The notional environment in which communication over computer networks occurs. http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/cyberspace viewed 8/3/15 Extract References: Great Britain (2014) National Crime Agency Strategic Assessment of Serious and Organised Crime http://www.nationalcrimeagency.gov.uk/publications/207-nca-strategic-assessment-of-serious-and-organised-crime/file National Strategic Assessment 1st of May 2014, p4 Jensen, M. C. (1993), The Modern Industrial Revolution, Exit, and the Failure of Internal Control Systems. The Journal of Finance, 48: 831–880. doi:10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04022.x http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/enhanced/doi/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1993.tb04022.x/last viewed 9/3/15 Singh, S. (1999). The Code Book. The Secret History of Codes and Code-Breaking. Fourth Estate, Harper Collins LondonItem Open Access Modelling Ultraviolet Missile Seekers(Cranfield University, 2017-01-11 14:32) James, Itor3MT presentation at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium. Surface to Air Missile (SAM) seekers are beginning to make use of wavebands other than the traditional Infrared (IR). One of the wavebands they are beginning to use is the Ultraviolet (UV). This study aims to prove that modelling of typical missile seekers utilising UV is possible and to investigate the variables which influence the performance. The study will also investigate methods by which the aircraft targets can protect themselves by controlling their signature.Item Open Access Enhanced CASSI Snapshot Imager Using Dual Prism Dispersion(Cranfield University, 2017-01-06 10:53) Ding, MengjiaPoster and 3MT presentation at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium. Snapshot Multispectral Imaging has been a highly-efficient technique for remote sensing application in great contrast to the conventional scanning system on the aspect of military target detection, agricultural monitoring and medical examination. Among many snapshot multispectral imagers, Coded Aperture Snapshot Spectral Imager(CASSI) has been introduced for a decade with the exploitation of a simple combination of coded aperture mask and dispersive element to acquire spatial and spectral data simultaneously. My work is to use an adjustable dual-prism structure rather than the conventional single prism/double amici prism to extend the image reconstruction ability of the current CASSI system in terms of tuneable spectral channels. The simulations are carried out by ray tracing software TracePro and the performance of the system is assessed by Matlab.Item Open Access Multi-Function RF Seeker Based on 3D Phased Array(Cranfield University, 2017-01-11 14:33) Kocjancic, Leon3MT presentation at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium.Current RF seekers in use today have mechanical steerable antennas. In order to reduce the cost of the mechanical system and to significantly improve the performance of the missile seeker, the electrically controlled 3D antenna array is proposed. Given solution will result in a much more robust antenna which will be capable of steering much faster and more accurately than existing solutions. Furthermore, the proposed antenna will provide an increased coverage and dwell time as a result of flexible beam steering. Additional degrees of freedom will allow it to carry out multiple tasks.The main aim of proposed PhD is to investigate theoretical background and realization of multiple beams that will conduct different tasks, such as radio-altimetry, target seeking, proximity activation and radar imaging. By using 3D antenna as a co-located multiple-input multiple-output system and by using suitable orthogonal waveforms the novel seeker will be capable of generating multiple beams.Item Open Access Anomaly Detection for Security Imaging(Cranfield University, 2017-01-24 15:26) Andrews, JeroneTechnical paper presented at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium.Non-intrusive inspection systems are increasingly used to scan intermodal freight shipping containers, at national ports, to ensure cargo conformity with customs regulations. Initially, each container is risk assessed based on shipping information such as origin, destination, and manifest. If the risk is deemed sufficiently high the container is imaged, typically by non-intrusive X-ray radiography. Finally, on the basis of the X-ray image, a human operator must make a shrewd decision, as to whether a container then necessitates physical inspection. These processes aim to minimise the number of false searches, whilst maximising the number of true searches, thus facilitating the detection of suspicious cargoes with negligible interference to the flow of commerce. However, due to the large number of containers being transported yearly, the number of X-ray transmission images to be visually inspected is high. Moreover, the heterogeneity within and between the X-ray images provides an appreciable visual challenge to human operators, exacerbated by overlapping, semi-transparent cargo. Previous approaches to automated security image analysis focus on the detection of particular classes of threat. However, this mode of inspection is ineffectual when dealing with mature classes of threat, for which adversaries have refined effective concealment techniques. To detect these hidden threats, customs officers often observe anomalies of shape, texture, weight, feel or response to perturbation. Inspired by the practice of customs officers, we are developing algorithms to discover visual anomalies in X-ray images. This paper investigates an anomaly detection framework, at X-ray image patch-level, for the automated discovery of absolute-, positional-, and relative-anomalies. The framework consists of two main components: (i) image features, and (ii) the detection of anomalies relative to those features.The development of discriminative features is problematic, since we have no a prior knowledge of the underlying, generating distribution of anomalies. Therefore, we pursue features that have been optimised for a related, very general, task, on similar data, which we found to be useful in previous works [1,2]. The features, for each patch, are then scored using a Forest of Isolation Trees – a recently proposed machine learning algorithm for general-purpose anomaly detection in data. The Forest is constructed under the working assumption that anomalies are ‘few and different’. Therefore, patches that are more readily separated from the main cluster, by randomly selected criteria, give rise to higher anomaly scores. The patch-level results are then fused into an overall anomaly heat map of the entire container, to facilitate human inspection. Lastly, our system is evaluated qualitatively using illustrations of example outputs and test cases with real and contrived anomalies.[1] Andrews, J. T., Morton, E. J., & Griffin, L. D. (2016). Detecting Anomalous Data Using Auto-Encoders. International Journal of Machine Learning and Computing, 6(1), 21.[2] Andrews, J. T., Morton, E. J., & Griffin, L. D. (2016). Transfer Representation-Learning for Anomaly Detection. International Conference on Machine Learning Anomaly Detection Workshop.Biographical Notes:Jerone Andrews has an MSc in Mathematics from King’s College London, and an MRes in Security Science from University College London. He is currently a PhD candidate in Applied Mathematics at University College London, jointly supervised by Computer Science and Statistical Science. His main topic of interest is representation-learning for anomaly detection in computer vision.This work was supported by the Department for Transport (DfT), the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) under CASE Award Grant 157760, and Rapiscan Systems.Item Open Access Passive Bistatic Radar Detection Using Non-Stationary Transmitters of Opportunity(Cranfield University, 2017-01-12 09:50) Ghazalli, Nasyitah3MT presentation at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium.Passive Bistatic Radar (PBR) systems use non-cooperative illuminations of opportunity to detect, localise and track targets. They have attracted a lot of interest in recent years because 1) they can be operated and deployed at a relatively low cost 2) they are difficult to detect and hence allow covert operations in a hostile environment and 3) because of the proliferation of illuminators of opportunity.Various illuminators of opportunity from analogue signal sources to digital ones, have been studied and exploited in recent years, and these include commercial broadcast systems, cellular base stations and local area networks. The aim of this research is to investigate the potential of PBR target detection in the presence of non-random signals emitted by a moving transmitter of opportunity and without the use of a reference channel. Typical transmitters of opportunity could be, for example, satellites carrying a SAR system. This research will include a study of the waveform properties, an assessment of target tracking performance and a set of experimental trials to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed solution.Item Open Access A Thin and Structured Acoustic Metamaterial for Absorption of Airborne Sound(Cranfield University, 2017-01-24 16:22) Starkey, TimPoster presented at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium.Achieving precise control over the propagation of sound energy has far reaching implications in both airborne and underwater environments. Obtaining a high level of control in the reflection, transmission, and absorption characteristics of sound is a significant challenge in the realisation of the next generation of sonar, acoustic imaging, acoustic cloaking, and sound attenuating devices.Traditionally the control of sound through a medium is governed by the bulk material properties of the fluid or the solid with which the sound is interacting. The bulk modulus and mass density are often the key parameters, but also the limiting factors in many acoustic engineering problems; for instance, it is impossible to absorb low frequency sound with a traditional (bulk) thin lightweight material.One route to overcome these limitations is to design and fabricate bespoke acoustic ‘metamaterials’ to control, guide, or otherwise manipulate the propagation of acoustic energy. These metamaterials are usually composite materials that comprise structured elements that exhibit periodic or geometric features with physical dimensions that are smaller than the wavelength of sound. The collective behaviour of the structured ensemble can be tuned to produce completely artificial behaviours that would not otherwise be seen using naturally occurring materials. At present there is a rapid expansion in acoustic metamaterial research, with studies demonstrating the potential utility these materials will have in a variety of technological applications.In this poster, I will show how sound absorption by an acoustic metamaterial can be achieved by exploiting the thermos-viscous boundary layer. This boundary layer is created at the interface between air and a solid material due to the ‘non-slip’ boundary condition for sound propagating in the direction tangential to the interface. Our metamaterial comprises a perforated (holey) metal plate separated from a flat surface by a small air gap. The sound attenuation in this structure is strongly dependent on the thickness of the air gap. By using this approach, sound absorbers that are significantly thinner and lighter than conventional sound absorbing panels may be realised.Item Open Access Accurate, fast and stable solver for electromagnetic scattering of absorbing layer materials(Cranfield University, 2016-12-06 11:26) Dély, AlexandrePoster presentation at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium. The boundary element method is an efficient and flexible tool for the modelling of scattering of electromagnetic waves by conducting and penetrable objects. It finds applications in the solution of forward and inverse problems in e.g. radar footprint determination, stealth technology, and imaging for diagnostics and security. To model scattering by objects that are for almost perfectly conducting, the classic equations are augmented with a so called impedance boundary condition (IBC). The IBC specifies a relationship between the electric field and the magnetic field on the surface of the scatterer, or equivalently between the magnetic and electric currents. IBC applications are numerous: especially they are well suited to simulate metals coated by a dielectric/absorbing layer which is the base of stealth technologies. In this contribution, an IBC enabled electric field integral equation will be introduced that can provide accurate results in linear time complexity at arbitrarily low frequency. The starting point of this work is the classic IBC formulation. Unfortunately, this suffers from low frequency and dense grid breakdowns. This means that the accuracy of the solution deteriorates and/or the computation time increases, when the frequency is low and/or when the number of unknown of the problem is high, because the iterative solvers used to solve the linear system require more iterations. The new IBC-EFIE introduced in this work does not suffer from these problems and can deliver highly accurate solutions at arbitrary frequency in near linear computational complexity. The formulation is based on quasi Helmholtz decomposition techniques and multiplicative preconditioners and yields a system whose condition number is independent of both the frequency and the discretization density.Item Open Access Solubility and chemical interaction of nitrocellulose in plasticisers(Cranfield University, 2016-11-07 09:10) Flood, Nathan; Parker, MatthewTechnical paper presented at the 2016 Defence and Doctoral Symposium. Abstract: Nitrocellulose (NC) is commonly used as an energetic binder in explosive and propellant formulations. During the formulation and casting stages NC can be mixed with a variety of plasticisers with the aim of tuning the mechanical properties of the charge to suit the specified requirements. Historically there have been issues with the solubility of NC in various plasticisers which has created manufacturing problems leading to failures of missiles.The research presented from two programmes of work funded by the WSTC, Propellant Bonding and Nitrocellulose: Degrees of Freedom, has investigated how NC interacts with three plasticisers; Triacetin (TA), Diallyl Phthalate (DAP) and Nitroglycerine (NG). The solubility was investigated using time-lapse microscopy and the chemical interaction was investigated using Attenuated Total Reflectance Infrared Spectroscopy (ATR-FT-IR) and compared with the five modes describing the swelling and dissolution mechanisms of wood and cellulose fibres.The mechanisms observed for nitrocellulose follow the dissolution modes described for wood and cotton fibres. It was found that TA had the highest solubility with respect to NC whilst NG had the lowest; variation in the swelling and gelation of NC has been rationalised by the crystallinity within the sample. Changes in the cellulosic fibrillar substructure of NC due to nitration and processing results in changes in its crystallinity. This variation of crystallinity subsequently affects the chemical interactions of solvent and plasticiser molecules with NC and the bulk movement of these molecules through the material. ATR-FT-IR demonstrates the presence of constructive bonding interactions between NC and TA or DAP, which manifests as swelling and gelation at the bulk-level. NG exhibits no apparent molecular bonding by IR measurement, and sorption only into the NC fibre, without the extensive swelling and gelation observed in the other regimes.Item Open Access Baseband version of the bat-inspired spectrogram correlation and transformation receiver(Cranfield University, 2016-12-06 14:47) Georgiev, KrasinPoster presentation at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium. Echolocating bats have evolved an excellent ability to detect, resolve and discriminate targets in highly challenging environments. They have had more than 50 million years of evolution to optimise their echolocation system and behavioural experiments have shown their exceptional ability to detect and classify targets even in highly cluttered surroundings. Behavioural experiments have demonstrated that bats are able to resolve closely located scatterers: •a two-point resolution of 2÷10 μs with waveforms of a bandwidth of 85 kHz (Eptesicus fuscus) • discriminate between two phantom target echoes separated by a time-delay of about 1 μs with waveforms of a bandwidth of up to 100 kHz (Megaderma lyra) •higher range resolution performance with respect to the conventional matched filter. The way bats process target echoes is different from the standard processing techniques used in radar and sonar, and there may be lessons to learn by investigating differences and similarities. The Spectrogram Correlation And Transformation receiver (SCAT) is an existing model of the bat auditory system that takes into account the physiology and underlying neural organisation in bats that emit chirped signals. The aims of this work are: •develop a baseband receiver equivalent to the SCAT to - allow the application of biologically inspired signal processing to radar baseband signals - enable further theoretical analysis of the key concepts, advantages and limitations of the “bat signal processing” •carry out simulations and experimen ts to investigate differences and similarities between the output (the frequency interference pattern for two closely located scatterers) of the original SCAT and that of the proposed baseband version.Item Open Access Crowdsourcing with serious games for defence procurement: reducing 'In-Service' modifications through early mass-user engagement(Cranfield University, 2016-12-06 11:32) Oates, EdPoster presentation at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium. This study takes a novel approach to Human-Computer Interface design within defence procurement. Through the use of a Serious Game, developed using Open Source coding techniques and internally Crowdsourced, the detailed design of defence equipment is developed through a wider than usual range of user perspectives. Initial results show a quantitative and qualitative link between user designed features and mission success.Item Open Access Software vulnerability discovery and disclosure system: a systems dynamics approach(Cranfield University, 2016-12-06 16:39) Lewis, Paul3MT (three minute thesis) presented at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium. This research investigates this critical issue of software vulnerabilities within commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) software. More specifically, what are the dynamics and structures of the system that is driving the increased rate of discovery, and furthermore, what impact do new innovations, policy or otherwise, have in both upon the system and in decreasing the risk organisations face. The ultimate aim of this research is to evolve the underlying theory and models, ground it in real empirical data and provide a framework to increase the understanding of the vulnerability discovery and disclosure system.Item Open Access 'Taking the heat' - developing propellants for high-temperature applications(Cranfield University, 2016-12-06 16:15) Mohammed, Yahaya3MT (three minute thesis) presented at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium. Since the early 1800s, nitrocellulose (NC) based propellants have gained popularity due to their low cost, ease of manufacture, and good ballistics. Vehicle airbags, small arms ammunition, aircraft ejection seat, tactical missiles and short to medium range rockets are some of the areas where NC propellants have been applied. Typical homogenous NC-based propellants depending on the energetic constituents are classified as single, double or triple base. Sometimes these propellants are further modified using high explosive additives depending on the performance requirements. The problem with NC, like other nitrate esters, is its poor thermal stability due to the weak RO-NO2 bonds especially, when exposed to high temperature and high humidity conditions as found in sub-Saharan Africa. Similarly, in deep-lying oil wells, NC propellants are problematic due to the high likelihood of ‘cook off'. Several accelerated ageing studies involving the exposure of propellants to high temperatures for the purpose of determining their failure mechanism and stability over time have been conducted. However, few of these studies were focused on the behaviours of NC propellants in tropical, sub-Saharan African climate. This research is aimed at understanding the degradation mechanism of NC propellants (double base) in a typical West African climate. The thesis will be focused on formulating alternative propellant compositions with better performance and thermal resilience. On the completion of the research, it is expected that a new surveillance technique suitable for sub-Saharan African climate will be developed. The first phase of the research will cover the thermal and mechanical analysis of NC propellants in high-temperature environments leading to the design of a bespoke propellant surveillance method for this climate. While the second the phase will cover formulation, characterization and testing of new binder and filler compositions as possible substitutes to NC-based propellants.Item Open Access Modelling the effects of temperature-dependent material properties in shear melt layers(Cranfield University, 2016-12-08 11:03) Timms, RobertTechnical paper presented at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium. This paper won second place in the Technical Paper category. The mechanisms responsible for ignition of explosive materials in response to low energy stimuli, known as “insults" in the literature, are still not well understood. It is in general believed that explosive ignition is of thermal origin, with mechanical energy being converted into heat energy in localised regions, forming so-called "hot spots". When an explosive sample is subject to a mechanical insult pre-existing, or new, microcracks will be in compression and shear. It is possible for such microcracks to grow in size if the local stress is great enough and, due to friction between solid surfaces, heat is released during the growth process. Subsequent to sufficient heat release, the crack surface temperature will be raised to the solid melting point and a thin sheared melt layer will be formed, separating the solid surfaces. This thin melt layer will continue to be heated through viscous dissipation and subsequent chemical reaction, and is thought to be a prime location for so-called hot spot generation. Mechanical insults, resulting from low-speed impacts which shear an explosive, have been identified as a possible ignition source. However, modelling such an ignition mechanism numerically with hydrocodes proves to offer some considerable challenges. To supplement the numerical approach, we develop an analytical model of the shearing, melting and subsequent ignition of an explosive material. We consider the melting of a thin viscous layer of explosive material due to an applied shear in an idealised planar geometry. The model accounts for self-heating due to mechanical dissipation, and a single-step Arrhenius reaction is used to describe the heating of the explosive due to subsequent chemical reaction. A solution is sought by considering perturbations from a melt layer of uniform width. In particular, we consider the effects of modelling the temperature dependence of the liquid viscosity and specific heat are studied. In contrast to previous work which does not account for the temperature dependence of material properties, it is shown that allowing the viscosity to vary with temperature can lead to non-uniform mechanical heating in the layer to leading order. Such localised heating may be associated with generation of localised hot spots which give rise to ignition.Item Open Access Nonlinear vibration analysis of a complex aerospace structure(Cranfield University, 2016-12-08 11:03) Cooper, SamsonTechnical paper presented at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium. Complex shaped aerodynamic structures such as deployable missiles are prone to exhibit some level of nonlinear phenomena due to their aerodynamic tailored design and application. Aside from the aeroelastic control challenges experienced by a missile, a fundamental challenge encountered by a deployable missile is the inevitable concentrated structural nonlinearities which are observed around the hinge of its fins. Due to the current design and manufacturing process, the hinge of the fin of a missile often consist of complex configurations, such as joints, friction and other nonlinear features which may lead to concentrated structural nonlinearities. Some of the nonlinearities encountered includes piecewise linearity, bilinear nonlinearity, hysteresis, coulomb friction and nonlinear damping mechanisms. These nonlinearities are frequently triggered at large vibration amplitudes, caused by high pressure loads during operational flight. Activation of these nonlinearities often affect the dynamic response of the missile and in some cases lead to structural failures in the major components of the air vehicle. In this context, identifying and predicting the vibration response of such aerodynamic structures with nonlinearities, may be of great advantage to the present structural dynamic community. In this paper, the nonlinear dynamic behaviour of a B61 prototype missile has been examined. A two-step methodology for integrating nonlinear system identification for estimating nonlinear stiffness and damping mechanism and nonlinear finite element modelling has been adopted in this investigation. The first step made use of acquired input and output data from random and sine sweep vibration test to derive a nonlinear experimental model for the missile, where the nonlinear experimental model was developed using a white box identification process, namely (detection, characterisation and parameter estimation). The second step implements the parameters of the identified nonlinear system into a finite element model (FEM) of the missile to develop a nonlinear FEM. The nonlinear dynamic response of the FEM was computed using the Harmonic balance method (HB) and pseudo-arclength continuation in the frequency domain. In addition, Force controlled stepped sine experiments at several excitation levels were conducted to validate the numerical solution obtained from the nonlinear FEM computation. The results obtained were used to understand the amplitude dependant behaviour of the missile under a vibration controlled environment and in addition predict the dynamic response of the missile in the existence of deployable hinge nonlinearity.Item Open Access Nuclear arms control: optimising verification processes through formal modelling(Cranfield University, 2016-12-09 11:15) Beaumont, PaulTechnical paper presented at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium. Arms control verification processes do not in practice allow for the parties involved to gather complete information about each other. Instead, each must make decisions about whether or not other parties are complying with their obligations on the basis of limited information. They must also make decisions during negotiation of a verification regime about the measures to be used, and during implementation of that regime about how and when to use the tools at their disposal. Decision-making under uncertainty is therefore a core element of the arms control verification problem. Our work aims to extend and combine mathematical modelling and verification approaches such that they can cope with the inherent lack of available data in this domain, and potentially be used to support policy-makers in practice. Our approach is to model the beliefs of each party and the various inspection control processes in a type of software known as a Satisfiability Modulo Theories (SMT) solver. This offers a general purpose approach to the automated analysis of mathematical models; in our case we use SMT to deal with uncertainty in (or absence of) data by expressing them as under-specifications of parameters in model verification processes. In other words, we don’t have to choose values for parameters – such as the number of nuclear weapons that tne of the parties holds, for example – if we don’t know them: we can pick a range of possible values, or leave the value totally unconstrained. We demonstrate the capabilities of this approach by exploring a representative, quantitative model of an arms control process in which two parties engage in mutual nuclear arms reduction and verification activities. We show that we are able to answer pertinent questions such as “given uncertainty in our treaty partners’ initial weapon stockpile, with scheduled inspections every 6 months and 2 other unscheduled inspections per year, what timing for unscheduled inspections leads to the minimum difference between our partners’ declaration and our assessment of their actual arsenal?” These new modelling and analysis methods allow for a much more sophisticated approach to modelling arms control: we have harnessed a supercomputer to analyse over 134 million possible inspection timelines, allowing the software to compute an inspection schedule over a treaty lifespan of 2 years for which performance against one or more measures of interest is optimised. The models and results can then be studied and their expected outcomes assessed to assist in decision-making regarding proposed arms control regimes. Biographical Notes: Paul Beaumont is a final year Postgraduate Research student in the Department of Computing at Imperial College London. His PhD focusses on understanding and solving mathematical models in the absence of data, and follows on from a Masters and undergraduate in Mathematics, also at Imperial. He works with colleagues from AWE and is applying his PhD techniques to the problem of nuclear arms verification.Item Open Access UAV Susceptibility and self-protection measures(Cranfield University, 2016-12-15 09:59) Vagias, IoannisPoster presentation at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium. The use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) has proliferated in the defence, security and scientific communities. Although still immature, the UAV market is the fastest growing sector of the defence industry, as senior and junior tactical military commanders request frequently both Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) and Close Air Support from unmanned aerial platforms. This increased dependence on UAVs, the associated attrition rate due to hostile fire and the high cost of sensors, communication equipment and weaponry will drive the requirement for UAV survivability. There is a need to develop background on the potential for UAVs to be equipped with self-protection systems. The aims of the research are to:· Investigate the threats to High and Medium Altitude Long Endurance (HALE and ALE) UAS and the spectrum, under which they operate.· Study where such protection systems can be installed and under which restrictions.· Research payload capability, dispenser installation as well as countermeasure ejection geometry, to understand how the UAS can be better asked.· Run simulation of individual and sophisticated scenarios where UAS will employ self-protection dispensing and non-dispensing techniques against threats. · Extract practical and feasible techniques for UAS protection.Item Open Access Searching for High Density Material in Cargo Containers Using Gravity Gradiometry(Cranfield University, 2017-02-06 09:34) Leahy, DavidPoster presented at the 2016 Defence and Security Doctoral Symposium.Imaging cargo containers at ports in this country is an important task, especially if they are being checked for possible fissile material. Some detection methods cannot be used as they are too destructive. A possible alternative is the use of gravity gradiometry - a non-destructive sensing technique which can provide better resolution than straightforward gravity readings, with the trade-off being less penetration power. The resulting inverse problem becomes an underdetermined system of linear equations. This poster looks at applying both a level set method and a genetic algorithm. In its simplest form a level set method uses a level set function to define two distinct regions based on the sign of the function at each point, the boundary being where the function is zero. It then uses a gradient-based iterative method to allow the shape to deform (including splitting and merging) to better fit the data. I explore the use of the colour level set method, which uses more than one level set function to describe many domains. Genetic algorithms are methods which draw inspiration from the process of natural selection using steps such as crossover and mutation. By limiting the population size and by use of a reparameterisation the algorithm can work at the speed required for the time-constraints we have. Both methods have their strengths and weaknesses when applied to this real-life problem. Crown copyright.