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Item Open Access COVID-19 and terrorism: Assessing the short-and long-term impacts(Pool Re and Cranfield University, 2020-05-05) Silke, AndrewThe COVID-19 pandemic is already having a significant impact on terrorism in a variety of ways. There is a mixed picture on the level of attacks in the short-term – lockdown measures will tend to inhibit attacks but terrorist propaganda calling for attacks (while authorities are distracted, etc.) will incite some incidents. Much propaganda – and particularly that connected to far-right extremism – is focusing on conspiracy theories connected to COVID-19 and this has already inspired plots and attacks. Islamist extremist propaganda is focusing more on the vulnerability of government opponents distracted by the pandemic and the opportunity this presents for attacks. There is a significant current increase in online extremist activity, raising the risk of increasing short-to-medium term radicalisation. There are strong long-term concerns that states weakened by the serious economic consequences of the pandemic will be more vulnerable to the emergence/resurgence of terrorist groups in many parts of the world.Item Open Access From the Diasporisation to the Transnationalisation of Exile Politics - The Case of Sri Lanka, 1983-2016 : Thematic Report Three. Asylum, Security and Extremism(Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats, 2018-06) McDowell, Christopher; Aronica, Valentina; Collantes-Celador, Gemma; DeSilva, NatashaThis is the final of three Thematic Reports published as part of a CREST-funded project carried out by a team of researchers at City, University of London, and Cranfield University at the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom. With the objective of better understanding Tamil diaspora communities’ attitudes and engagement in the Sri Lankan civil conflict (1983-2009) and its aftermath, the project explores diaspora and refugee communities’ relationship with the changing socio-political environment in the homeland, exploring what shapes and influences processes of radicalisation or moderation among these communities. It recognises that the socio-political circumstances in which these processes develop are often crucial to understanding why a community or individuals within that community abroad act in a certain way; this includes analysis of different scales and levels of engagement, both in home and host countries, as well as different ‘areas’ of engagement, which can include social, economic and political interactions. The three thematic reports produced as part of this project cumulatively build a comprehensive picture of the state of knowledge on political action among diaspora, refugee and asylum populations. The theoretically-informed, literature-and evidence-grounded conclusions arising from these three thematic reports are therefore of relevance beyond the case of Sri Lanka. Thematic Report One discussed how four analytical concepts, diaspora, transnationalism, cosmopolitanism, and translocalism, have come to frame the academic discussion on overseas politics and the potential of these concepts to shed light on the relationship between mobility and political action. Thematic Report Two complements the previous report’s broad conceptual discussion by specifically focusing on an analysis of the context and drivers of political action among diaspora and refugee populations, and engaging with the term ‘refugee politics’. The current paper – the final Thematic Report – analyses the growing ‘securitisation’ of refugees and other forcibly displaced populations and calls for greater consideration of structural vulnerabilities in the forced migration and displacement cycle that increase the risk of radicalisation, extremism and related political behaviours.Item Open Access From the Diasporisation to the Transnationalisation of Exile Politics - The Case of Sri Lanka, 1983-2016: Thematic Report Two. The Engagement of Refugees in Transnational Politics: Lessons from the Migration, Diaspora and Refugee Studies Literature(Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats, 2018-06) McDowell, Christopher; Aronica, Valentina; Collantes-Celador, Gemma; DeSilva, NatashaThis is the second of three CREST-funded Thematic Reports published by a team of researchers at City, University of London, and Cranfield University at the Defence Academy of the United Kingdom, that cumulatively build a comprehensive picture of the state of knowledge on political action among diaspora and refugee populations. The research team is specifically interested in applying the theoretically-informed, literature and evidence grounded conclusions arising from these reports to understand the attitudes towards and involvement in the Sri Lankan civil conflict (1983-2009) and its aftermath by Tamil diaspora communities, but with a broader application. The CREST project is exploring diaspora and refugee communities’ relationship with the changing socio-political environment in the homeland and how this influences processes of radicalisation or moderation. It recognises that the socio-political circumstances in which these processes develop are often crucial to understanding why a community or individuals within that community abroad act in a certain way; this includes analysis of different scales and levels of engagement, both in home countries and in host countries, as well as different ‘areas’ of engagement, which can include social, economic and political interactions. Thematic Report One discussed how four analytical concepts, diaspora, transnationalism, cosmopolitanism, and translocalism, have come to frame the academic discussion of overseas politics and the potential of the concepts to shed light on the relationship between mobility and political action. The current paper – Thematic Report Two – complements the previous report’s broad conceptual discussion by specifically focusing on an analysis of the context and drivers of political action among diaspora and refugee populations, and engaging with the term ‘refugee politics’. It considers if the available diaspora and migration literature sheds light on whether the processes and dynamics of forced migration are likely to generate identifiable forms of political engagement.Item Open Access How dangerous are released terrorist prisoners and what is being done to manage this risk?(Pool Reinsurance (PoolRe), 2022-05) Silke, AndrewThe past decade has seen a general increase in the number of people convicted for terrorism-related offences in England and Wales, with an accompanying rise in the number of terrorist prisoners. This year, between 90-100 terrorist prisoners will be considered for release in England and Wales and, if recent trends hold, approximately half of these prisoners will be released. Between 2013 and 2021, 443 terrorist prisoners were released,1averaging roughly 50 former prisoners back on the streets each year.Item Open Access How terrorists think about the economic impact of attacks(Pool Reinsurance (PoolRe), 2019-11-20) Silke, AndrewIt has long been recognised that terrorism can be a remarkably effective low cost form of conflict. For modest outlays on the part of perpetrators, terrorist violence can inflict disproportionately high economic costs. The potential for heavy economic impacts was a key factor behind the formation of Pool Re in the UK and other terrorism reinsurance schemes internationally.Item Open Access The Phoenix Model: disengagement and deradicalisation(Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats, 2021-10-15) Silke, Andrew; Morrison, John; Maiberg, Heidi; Slay, Chloe; Stewart, RebeccaThis article provides an introduction to the Phoenix Model of Disengagement And Deradicalisation. In a review of disengagement and deradicalisation literature from 2017 to 2020, we identified 11 major themes: Opportunity, Disillusionment, (Dis)trust, Family and friends, Prison, Identity, Programme interventions, Formers, Security, Mental health, and Reintegration. Many of these themes have been flagged as significant factors in disengagement and deradicalisation before, though this is the first time they’ve been identified as a collective. This systematic approach allowed further analysis to develop a new model for understanding disengagement and deradicalisation processes which is outlined here.Item Open Access Re-offending by released terrorist prisoners: Separating hype from reality(International Centre for Counter-Terrorism, 2020-09-02) Silke, Andrew; Morrison, JohnRecent cases of attacks by released terrorist prisoners highlight issues around the risk of re-offending posed by former terrorist prisoners. What are the appropriate processes and systems for managing and risk assessing such individuals, and to what extent is rehabilitation possible in the context of terrorist offending? This Policy Brief will explore these and related issues to help inform wider discussion and debates on appropriate policy in this area. In this Policy Brief, the authors critically analyse the definition of ‘recidivism’, and demonstrate the need for a concrete operational definition before one is able to truly analyse recidivist activity. Following this, the authors discuss terrorist recidivism in a range of international contexts, ranging from Northern Ireland to Sri Lanka, the United States to Israel. By taking this broader perspective it allows the reader to gain a greater understanding of what factors related to recidivism rates may be context-specific, and which are universal.Item Open Access The role of (dis)trust in disengagement and deradicalisation(Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats, 2021-07-23) Morrison, John; Silke, Andrew; Maiberg, Heidi; Slay, Chloe; Stewart, RebeccaWhen designing a disengagement or deradicalisation programme, who delivers it and how much they are trusted needs careful consideration. A systematic review of the disengagement and deradicalisation literature identified (dis)trust as playing a key filtering role in the disengagement and deradicalisation decision-making processes. It was found that the opportunities to leave a terrorist organisation are more likely to be successful when they are offered by an individual, organisation, or entity that is perceived by the would-be defector as being trustworthy. The same opportunity provided by a distrusted or less trusted entity is significantly less likely to lead to an organisational exit. Trust is most important at the initial stages of disengagement. However, if one is to have a sustained exit, these and other trusting relationships must be maintained.Item Open Access A systematic review of post-2017 research on disengagement and deradicalisation(Centre for Research and Evidence on Security Threats, 2021-08-02) Morrison, John F.; Silke, Andrew; Maiberg, Heidi; Slay, Chloe; Stewart, RebeccaAn urgent need exists for an empirically grounded understanding of the processes that lead individuals to disengage and deradicalise from terrorism and violent extremism. It is only with such empirically driven knowledge that appropriate interventions and programmes to assist in the successful reintegration of former terrorists and violent extremists can be designed, validated, updated and implemented. This report provides a systematic review of the post-2017 research on disengagement and deradicalisation (see Appendix A for methodology). After screening more than 83,000 documents, we found 95 reports which met the criteria for coding. This sample of reports was coded across eight core coding themes and a total of 123 individual variables (see Appendix B). Through the process of a systematic quality review, 29 articles were identified as meeting the criteria for full thematic analysis. In addition to this, the 30 most heavily cited pre-2017 papers (see Appendix C) on disengagement and deradicalisation were identified to be used as a comparative sample for the post-2017 publications. The analysis of that collection has allowed us to identify the major factors involved in these processes and to assess the extent to which knowledge and understanding is progressing in this critical field. Overall, the review found clear evidence of progress in our understanding of disengagement and deradicalisation. Comparison with the pre-2017 literature illustrates that valuable research is being conducted and published in the recent period using more robust research methods and which is providing new data for analysis and insight. The review found that research had identified a range of facilitative causes and barriers for disengagement and deradicalisation, though work is still needed to determine the weighting of these. Encouragingly, the review also found that the available evidence suggests that many interventions examined appear to have positive impacts. Relapse and recidivism occur but appears to be uncommon. Eleven major themes across the post-2017 research were identified and analysedItem Open Access The violent dissident republican threat(Pool Reinsurance (PoolRe), 2019-07-01) Silke, AndrewThough often overlooked in recent years, terrorism related to Northern Ireland is still a possible threat to the UK. Since the signing of the Good Friday Peace Agreement in 1998, over 150 people have been killed as a result of security-related violence in the region. 1 A young journalist, Lyra McKee, became the latest fatality when she was shot and killed by violent dissident republicans (VDRs) during a riot in Derry in April. On average between 15-40 shootings and bombings take place each year though media coverage of the incidents outside of Northern Ireland is very limited and wider awareness of the violence is low. In the 12 months up to March 2019, the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) recorded 15 bombings and 38 security-related shootings in the province. 2 While there is no denying that the level of violence has declined massively compared to that seen before the Good Friday Agreement, it is still vital to realise that a variety of terrorist organisations remain active.