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Item Open Access An adaptable integrated modelling platform to support rapidly evolving agricultural and environmental policy(Elsevier, 2023-09-17) Harrison, Paula A.; Beauchamp, Kate; Cooper, Joe; Dickie, Ian; Fitch, Alice; Gooday, Richard; Hollaway, Michael; Holman, Ian P.; et al.he utility of integrated models for informing policy has been criticised due to limited stakeholder engagement, model opaqueness, inadequate transparency in assumptions, lack of model flexibility and lack of communication of uncertainty that, together, lead to a lack of trust in model outputs. We address these criticisms by presenting the ERAMMP Integrated Modelling Platform (IMP), developed to support the design of new “business-critical” policies focused on agriculture, land-use and natural resource management. We demonstrate how the long-term (>5 years), iterative, two-way and continuously evolving participatory process led to the co-creation of the IMP with government, building trust and understanding in a complex integrated model. This is supported by a customisable modelling framework that is sufficiently flexible to adapt to changing policy needs in near real-time. We discuss how these attributes have facilitated cultural change within the Welsh Government where the IMP is being actively used to explore, test and iterate policy ideas prior to final policy design and implementation.Item Open Access Advocacy and the search for truth in management scholarship: can the twain ever meet?(SAGE, 2023-10-03) Wright, Thomas A.; Emich, Kyle; Pearce, Jone L.; [...]; Denyer, David; et al.Scholars have long debated the merits of advocacy-based research versus research considered from the quest for objective truth. Building upon reflections from multiple sources, a set of 11 brief reflections on three posed questions are presented. Tsang concludes our discussion with additional insights on how moving beyond the “interestingness” advocacy will be beneficial to the continued professional development of the management discipline.Item Open Access Ancient marine sediment DNA reveals diatom transition in Antarctica(Springer Nature, 2022-10-02) Armbrecht, Linda; Weber, Michael E.; Raymo, Maureen E.; Fogwill, Chris; et al.Antarctica is one of the most vulnerable regions to climate change on Earth and studying the past and present responses of this polar marine ecosystem to environmental change is a matter of urgency. Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) analysis can provide such insights into past ecosystem-wide changes. Here we present authenticated (through extensive contamination control and sedaDNA damage analysis) metagenomic marine eukaryote sedaDNA from the Scotia Sea region acquired during IODP Expedition 382. We also provide a marine eukaryote sedaDNA record of ~1 Mio. years and diatom and chlorophyte sedaDNA dating back to ~540 ka (using taxonomic marker genes SSU, LSU, psbO). We find evidence of warm phases being associated with high relative diatom abundance, and a marked transition from diatoms comprising <10% of all eukaryotes prior to ~14.5 ka, to ~50% after this time, i.e., following Meltwater Pulse 1A, alongside a composition change from sea-ice to open-ocean species. Our study demonstrates that sedaDNA tools can be expanded to hundreds of thousands of years, opening the pathway to the study of ecosystem-wide marine shifts and paleo-productivity phases throughout multiple glacial-interglacial cycles.Item Open Access Antiphased dust deposition and productivity in the Antarctic Zone over 1.5 million years(Nature, 2022-04-19) Belt, Simon T.; Smik, Lukas; Vogel, Hendrik; Peck, Victoria L.; Armbrecht, Linda; Cage, Alix; Cardillo, Fabricio G.; Du, Zhiheng; Fauth, Gerson; Fogwill, Christopher J.; et al.The Southern Ocean paleoceanography provides key insights into how iron fertilization and oceanic productivity developed through Pleistocene ice-ages and their role in influencing the carbon cycle. We report a high-resolution record of dust deposition and ocean productivity for the Antarctic Zone, close to the main dust source, Patagonia. Our deep-ocean records cover the last 1.5 Ma, thus doubling that from Antarctic ice-cores. We find a 5 to 15-fold increase in dust deposition during glacials and a 2 to 5-fold increase in biogenic silica deposition, reflecting higher ocean productivity during interglacials. This antiphasing persisted throughout the last 25 glacial cycles. Dust deposition became more pronounced across the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT) in the Southern Hemisphere, with an abrupt shift suggesting more severe glaciations since ~0.9 Ma. Productivity was intermediate pre-MPT, lowest during the MPT and highest since 0.4 Ma. Generally, glacials experienced extended sea-ice cover, reduced bottom-water export and Weddell Gyre dynamics, which helped lower atmospheric CO2 levels.Item Open Access Climate change: strategies for mitigation and adaptation(Innovation Press, 2023-06-23) Wang, Fang; et al.The sustainability of life on Earth is under increasing threat due to human-induced climate change. This perilous change in the Earth's climate is caused by increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, primarily due to emissions associated with burning fossil fuels. Over the next two to three decades, the effects of climate change, such as heatwaves, wildfires, droughts, storms, and floods, are expected to worsen, posing greater risks to human health and global stability. These trends call for the implementation of mitigation and adaptation strategies. Pollution and environmental degradation exacerbate existing problems and make people and nature more susceptible to the effects of climate change. In this review, we examine the current state of global climate change from different perspectives. We summarize evidence of climate change in Earth’s spheres, discuss emission pathways and drivers of climate change, and analyze the impact of climate change on environmental and human health. We also explore strategies for climate change mitigation and adaptation and highlight key challenges for reversing and adapting to global climate change.Item Open Access DAFNI: a computational platform to support infrastructure systems research(Institution of Civil Engineers - ICE, 2023-04-14) Matthews, Brian; Hall, Jim; Batty, Michael; [...]; Hallett, Stephen; et al.Research into the engineering of infrastructure systems is increasingly data intensive. Researchers build computational models to explore scenarios such as investigating the merits of infrastructure plans, analysing historical data to inform system operations or assessing the impacts of infrastructure on the environment. Models are more complex, at higher resolution and with larger coverage. Researchers also require a ‘multi-systems’ approach to explore interactions between systems, such as energy and water with urban development, and across scales, from buildings and streets to regions or nations. Consequently, researchers need enhanced computational resources to support cross-institutional collaboration and sharing at scale. The Data and Analytics Facility for National Infrastructure (DAFNI) is an emerging computational platform for infrastructure systems research. It provides high-throughput compute resources so larger data sets can be used, with a data repository to upload data and share these with collaborators. Users’ models can also be uploaded and executed using modern containerisation techniques, giving platform independence, scaling and sharing. Further, models can be combined into workflows, supporting multi-systems modelling and generating visualisations to present results. DAFNI forms a central resource accessible to all infrastructure systems researchers in the UK, supporting collaboration and providing a legacy, keeping data and models available beyond the lifetime of a project.Item Open Access Integrated multimodal airport operations for efficient passenger flow management: Two case studies(Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences, 2022-12-06) Rothe, Henrik; Jimenez Perez, Edgar; Moxon, Rich; Ellis, Darren; et al.Predictive models and decision support tools allow information sharing, common situational awareness and real-time collaborative decision-making between airports and ground transport stakeholders. To support this general goal, IMHOTEP has developed a set of models able to anticipate the evolution of an airport’s passenger flows within the day of operations. This is to assess the operational impact of different management measures on the airport processes and the ground transport system. Two models covering the passenger flows inside the terminal and of passengers accessing and egressing the airport have been integrated to provide a holistic view of the passenger journey from door-to-gate and vice versa. This paper describes IMHOTEP’s application at two case study airports, Palma de Mallorca (PMI) and London City (LCY), at Proof of Concept (PoC-level) assessing impact and service improvements for passengers, airport operators and other key stakeholders. For the first time one measurable process is created to open up opportunities for better communication across all associated stakeholders. Ultimately the successful implementation will lead to a reduction of the carbon footprint of the passenger journey by better use of existing facilities and surface transport services, and the delay or omission of additional airport facility capacities.Item Open Access Knowledge priorities on climate change and water in the Upper Indus Basin: a horizon scanning exercise to identify the top 100 research questions in social and natural sciences(Wiley: American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2022-03-24) Orr, Andrew; Ahmad, Bashir; Alam, Undala; Appadurai, Arivudai Nambi; Bharucha, Zareen P.; Biemans, Hester; Bolch, Tobias; Chaulagain, Narayan P.; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Dimri, A. P.; Dixon, Harry; Fowler, Hayley J.; Gioli, Giovanna; Halvorson, Sarah J.; Hussain, Abid; Jeelani, Ghulam; Kamal, Simi; Khalid, Imran S.; Liu, Shiyin; Lutz, Arthur; Mehra, Meeta K.; Miles, Evan; Momblanch, Andrea; et al.River systems originating from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are dominated by runoff from snow and glacier melt and summer monsoonal rainfall. These water resources are highly stressed as huge populations of people living in this region depend on them, including for agriculture, domestic use, and energy production. Projections suggest that the UIB region will be affected by considerable (yet poorly quantified) changes to the seasonality and composition of runoff in the future, which are likely to have considerable impacts on these supplies. Given how directly and indirectly communities and ecosystems are dependent on these resources and the growing pressure on them due to ever-increasing demands, the impacts of climate change pose considerable adaptation challenges. The strong linkages between hydroclimate, cryosphere, water resources, and human activities within the UIB suggest that a multi- and inter-disciplinary research approach integrating the social and natural/environmental sciences is critical for successful adaptation to ongoing and future hydrological and climate change. Here we use a horizon scanning technique to identify the Top 100 questions related to the most pressing knowledge gaps and research priorities in social and natural sciences on climate change and water in the UIB. These questions are on the margins of current thinking and investigation and are clustered into 14 themes, covering three overarching topics of “governance, policy, and sustainable solutions”, “socioeconomic processes and livelihoods”, and “integrated Earth System processes”. Raising awareness of these cutting-edge knowledge gaps and opportunities will hopefully encourage researchers, funding bodies, practitioners, and policy makers to address them.Item Open Access A multidisciplinary investigation of a mummified Egyptian head and analysis of its associated resinous material from the Salinas Regional Archaeological Museum in Palermo (Sicily)(Elsevier, 2024-04-13) Squires, Kirsty; Davidson, Alison; Cooper, Simon; Viner, Mark; et al.Among the 70 items donated by the abbot Antonio Pietro Paternostro to the former National Museum of Palermo (now Salinas Regional Archaeological Museum) in 1870, an ancient Egyptian mummified human head stands out. In 2022 the finding was submitted for a multidisciplinary investigation that relied upon non-invasive or minimally invasive approaches. Investigations revealed that this is a possible female head, which was likely subjected to trans-nasal craniotomy, and dated to the Egyptian Graeco-Roman period. The head was packed with an abundant amount of resin which was analysed using thermogravimetric analysis, infrared spectroscopy, and gas chromatography with mass spectrometry. The analysis suggested that the resin was most likely comprised of a natural resin, pitch, or tar, from the Pinaceae family of conifers, and mixed with other materials including a fat, oil, or wax. The use of multiple sample preparation techniques for the chromatographic analysis provided a high level of confidence in the identification of a wide variety of compounds, including a range of himachalene derivatives, which indicate the inclusion of cedar tar or oil.Item Open Access OxyCAP UK: Oxyfuel Combustion - academic Programme for the UK(Elsevier, 2014-12-31) Chalmers, H.; Al-Jeboori, M.; Anthony, B.; [...]; Darabkhani, Hamidreza Gohari; et al.The OxyCAP-UK (Oxyfuel Combustion - Academic Programme for the UK) programme was a £2 M collaboration involving researchers from seven UK universities, supported by E.On and the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. The programme, which ran from November 2009 to July 2014, has successfully completed a broad range of activities related to development of oxyfuel power plants. This paper provides an overview of key findings arising from the programme. It covers development of UK research pilot test facilities for oxyfuel applications; 2-D and 3-D flame imaging systems for monitoring, analysis and diagnostics; fuel characterisation of biomass and coal for oxyfuel combustion applications; ash transformation/deposition in oxyfuel combustion systems; materials and corrosion in oxyfuel combustion systems; and development of advanced simulation based on CFD modelling.Item Open Access Research and innovation identified to decarbonise the maritime sector(Pivot Science Publications Corporation, 2024-03-27) Ling-Chin, Janie; Simpson, Rachel; Cairns, Alasdair; Wu, Dawei; Xie, Ying; et al.The maritime sector requires technically, environmentally, socially, and economically informed pathways to decarbonise and eliminate all emissions harmful to the environment and health. This is extremely challenging and complex, and a wide range of technologies and solutions are currently being explored. However, it is important to assess the state-of-the-art and identify further research and innovation required to accelerate decarbonisation. The UK National Clean Maritime Research Hub have identified key priority areas to drive this process, with particular focus on marine fuels, power and propulsion, vessel efficiency, port operations and infrastructure, digitalisation, finance, regulation, and policy.Item Open Access Scoping potential routes to UK civil unrest via the food system: results of a structured expert elicitation(MDPI, 2023-10-12) Jones, Aled; Bridle, Sarah; Katherine, Denby; [...]; Burgess, Paul; et al.We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning.Item Open Access Ten millennia of hepatitis B virus evolution(American Association for the Advancement of Science, 2021-10-07) Kocher, Arthur; Papac, Luka; Barquera, Rodrigo; Key, Felix M.; Spyrou, Maria A.; Hübler, Ron; Rohrlach, Adam B.; Aron, Franziska; Stahl, Raphaela; Wissgott, Antje; et al.Hepatitis B virus (HBV) has been infecting humans for millennia and remains a global health problem, but its past diversity and dispersal routes are largely unknown. We generated HBV genomic data from 137 Eurasians and Native Americans dated between ~10,500 and ~400 years ago. We date the most recent common ancestor of all HBV lineages to between ~20,000 and 12,000 years ago, with the virus present in European and South American hunter-gatherers during the early Holocene. After the European Neolithic transition, Mesolithic HBV strains were replaced by a lineage likely disseminated by early farmers that prevailed throughout western Eurasia for ~4000 years, declining around the end of the 2nd millennium BCE. The only remnant of this prehistoric HBV diversity is the rare genotype G, which appears to have reemerged during the HIV pandemic.Item Open Access Urban heat mitigation by green and blue infrastructure: drivers, effectiveness, and future needs(Elsevier, 2024-02-28) Kumar, Prashant; Debele, Sisay E.; Khalili, Soheila; [...]; Coulon, Frederic; et al.The combination of urbanization and global warming leads to urban overheating and compounds the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events due to climate change. Yet, the risk of urban overheating can be mitigated by urban green-blue-grey infrastructure (GBGI), such as parks, wetlands, and engineered greening, which have the potential to effectively reduce summer air temperatures. Despite many reviews, the evidence bases on quantified GBGI cooling benefits remains partial and the practical recommendations for implementation are unclear. This systematic literature review synthesizes the evidence base for heat mitigation and related co-benefits, identifies knowledge gaps, and proposes recommendations for their implementation to maximize their benefits. After screening 27,486 papers, 202 were reviewed, based on 51 GBGI types categorized under 10 main divisions. Certain GBGI (green walls, parks, street trees) have been well researched for their urban cooling capabilities. However, several other GBGI have received negligible (zoological garden, golf course, estuary) or minimal (private garden, allotment) attention. The most efficient air cooling was observed in botanical gardens (5.0 ± 3.5°C), wetlands (4.9 ± 3.2°C), green walls (4.1 ± 4.2°C), street trees (3.8 ± 3.1°C), and vegetated balconies (3.8 ± 2.7°C). Under changing climate conditions (2070–2100) with consideration of RCP8.5, there is a shift in climate subtypes, either within the same climate zone (e.g., Dfa to Dfb and Cfb to Cfa) or across other climate zones (e.g., Dfb [continental warm-summer humid] to BSk [dry, cold semi-arid] and Cwa [temperate] to Am [tropical]). These shifts may result in lower efficiency for the current GBGI in the future. Given the importance of multiple services, it is crucial to balance their functionality, cooling performance, and other related co-benefits when planning for the future GBGI. This global GBGI heat mitigation inventory can assist policymakers and urban planners in prioritizing effective interventions to reduce the risk of urban overheating, filling research gaps, and promoting community resilience.