Browsing by Author "Tanguy, Maliko"

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    Indicator-to-impact links to help improve agricultural drought preparedness in Thailand
    (EGU: European Geophysical Union, 2023-07-06) Tanguy, Maliko; Eastman, Michael; Magee, Eugene; Barker, Lucy J.; Chitson, Thomas; Ekkawatpanit, Chaiwat; Goodwin, Daniel; Hannaford, Jamie; Holman, Ian P.; Pardthaisong, Liwa; Parry, Simon; Rey Vicario, Dolores; Visessri, Supattra
    Droughts in Thailand are becoming more severe due to climate change. Developing a reliable drought monitoring and early warning system (DMEWS) is essential to strengthen a country's resilience to droughts. However, for a DMEWS to be valuable, the drought indicators provided to stakeholders must have relevance to tangible impacts on the ground. Here, we analyse drought indicator-to-impact relationships in Thailand, using a combination of correlation analysis and machine learning techniques (random forest). In the correlation analysis, we study the link between meteorological drought indicators and high-resolution remote sensing vegetation indices used as proxies for crop yield and forest growth impacts. Our analysis shows that this link varies depending on land use, season and region. The random forest models built to estimate regional crop productivity allow a more in-depth analysis of the crop- and region-specific importance of different drought indicators. The results highlight seasonal patterns of drought vulnerability for individual crops, usually linked to their growing season, although the effects are somewhat attenuated in irrigated regions. Integration of the approaches provides new, detailed knowledge of crop- and region-specific indicator-to-impact links, which can form the basis of targeted mitigation actions in an improved DMEWS in Thailand and could be applied to other parts of Southeast Asia and beyond.
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    Regional variations in the link between drought indices and reported agricultural impacts of drought
    (Elsevier, 2019-02-26) Parsons, David J.; Rey, Dolores; Tanguy, Maliko; Holman, Ian P.
    Drought has wide ranging impacts on all sectors. Despite much effort to identify the best drought indicator to represents the occurrence of drought impacts in a particular sector, there is still no consensus among the scientific community on this. Using a more detailed and extensive impact dataset than in previous studies, this paper assesses the regional relationship between drought impacts occurrence in British agriculture and two of the most commonly used drought indices (SPI and SPEI). The largest qualitative dataset on reported drought impacts on British agriculture for the period 1975–2012 spanning all major recent droughts was collated. Logistic regression using generalised additive models was applied to investigate the association between drought indices and reported impacts at the regional level. Results show that SPEI calculated for the preceding six months is the best indicator to predict the probability of drought impacts on agriculture in the UK, although the variation in the response to SPEI6 differed between regions. However, this variation appears to result both from the method by which SPEI is derived, which means that similar values of the index equate to different soil moisture conditions in wet and dry regions, and from the variation in agriculture between regions. The study shows that SPEI alone has limited value as an indicator of agricultural droughts in heterogeneous areas and that such results cannot be usefully extrapolated between regions. However, given the drought sensitivity of agriculture, the integration of regional predictions within drought monitoring and forecasting would help to reduce the large on-farm economic damage of drought and increase the sector's resilience to future drought.
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    Stakeholder perceptions of drought resilience using government drought compensation in Thailand
    (Elsevier, 2025-04-15) Chengot, Rishma; Goodwin, Daniel; Tanguy, Maliko; Armitage, Rachael; Pardthaisong, Liwa; Jha, Srinidhi; Holman, Ian; Rey Vicario, Dolores; Visessri, Supattra; Ekkawatpanit, Chaiwat; Hannaford, Jamie
    In the context of escalating climate challenges in Southeast Asia, this study investigates the dynamics of disaster budget allocation in Thailand and examines farmers' perceptions of drought compensation, focusing on the Ping catchment situated in the Northwest of the country. The main objective of the study was to gauge stakeholders' awareness and views on government drought compensation and evaluate its effectiveness. Using government budget data, drought indicators, and a comprehensive survey in Chiang Mai and Tak provinces, the study explores correlations between budget allocation, drought indicators, and farmers' experiences. A correlation analysis unveils stronger links between compensation and Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) as compared to Drought Severity Index (DSI), with regional variations and the impact of irrigation practices. Compensation shows positive correlations with drought severity, suggesting support to farmers occurs when they suffer severe crop damage. We investigate drought occurrences and their impacts along with farmer's awareness and experiences of drought compensation schemes to uncover disparities in awareness, application rates, and satisfaction levels, providing insights into farmers' views on compensation effectiveness. The study concludes by proposing policy adjustments, tailored regional approaches, and feedback mechanisms to enhance the effectiveness of drought compensation strategies. Despite limitations in sample size and potential biases, this study contributes valuable insights into the complex dynamics of disaster budget allocation, drought compensation, and farmers' perspectives in Thailand, laying a foundation for refining policies and fostering sustainable agricultural practices amidst increasing climate challenges.