Browsing by Author "Taffler, Richard J."
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Item Open Access Comparing the performance of market-based and accounting-based bankruptcy prediction models(Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z) Agarwal, Vineet; Taffler, Richard J.Recently developed corporate bankruptcy prediction models adopt a contingent claims valuation approach. However, despite their theoretical appeal, tests of their performance compared with traditional simple accounting-ratio-based approaches are limited in the literature. We find the two approaches capture different aspects of bankruptcy risk, and while there is little difference in their predictive ability in the UK, the z-score approach leads to significantly greater bank profitability in conditions of differential decision error costs and competitive pricing regime. (C) 2007 Published by Elsevier B.V.Item Open Access Does Financial Distress Risk Drive the Momentum Anomaly?(Financial Management Association -- J S Rader, 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z) Agarwal, Vineet; Taffler, Richard J.This paper brings together the evidence on two asset pricing anomalies-continuation of prior returns (momentum) and the market mispricing of distressed firms-using UK data. Our analysis demonstrates both these effects are driven by market underreaction to financial distress risk. In particular, we find momentum is proxying for distress risk, and is largely subsumed by our distress risk factor. We also find, as with US studies, no evidence that size and book-to-market (B/M) effects in stock returns are linked to financial distress.Item Open Access Internet stocks as “phantastic objects”: A psychoanalytic interpretation of shareholder valuation during dot.com mania.(European Asset Management Association, 2003) Taffler, Richard J.; Tuckett, David A.Item Open Access The shadow in the balance sheet: The spectre of Enron and how accountants use the past as a psychological defence against the future(2004-01-01T00:00:00Z) Cooper, David; James, Kim; Kwiatkowski, Richard; Taffler, Richard J.Accounting frameworks play a crucial role in enabling us to make sense of business. These frameworks provide a common language for individuals, organizations and broader economic groupings to understand and make decisions about the commercial realm in which they operate. From a psychodynamic perspective, the language of accounting also plays an important role. On the one hand it offers a way to tame the uncertainty and unknowability of the future by representing it in the same comforting terms as it does the past, thus reducing anxiety. Accounting provides a ‘shorthand’, which achieves a balance between positive and negative, debit and credit, asset and liability. On the other hand, accounting can also provide an arena in which fantasies about the future can be staged. However, the use of accounting language is problematic, particularly when it comes to dealing with the future. First, accounting frameworks are inherently backward looking and second, the reassuring sense of clarity and predictability they give are bought at the price of unrealistic simplification. The shadow is never far away and is a constant source of surprises in the unfolding future of a business. Rationalizing and sanitizing the shadow through accounting language may alleviate anxiety but fails to provide an escape from its effects, and echoes from the shadow side of business are capable of shaking the world in the form of accounting scandals. Governments and businesses have reacted to scandals such as Enron and Worldcom by tightening legislation and refining accounting standards but little, if anything, has been done to bring us any closer to confronting the shadow of business where these scandals have their ro