Browsing by Author "Snary, E. L."

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    Impact assessment of an independent agency for animal health in England
    (Taylor & Francis, 2013-07-04T00:00:00Z) Gormley, Aine Marie; Snary, E. L.; Rocks, Sophie A.; Pollard, Simon J. T.
    The applicability of a stochastic model was explored to assess the impact of a new independent agency for animal health in England in terms of the cost of animal disease outbreaks. The new agency was proposed to take responsibility for animal disease management in England. The stochastic model estimates the likelihood that the proposed new agency would face animal disease outbreaks of major and minor magnitude; and how many outbreaks of each magnitude, within its first 30 years of operation. Large variability in the potential total cost of the new agency was attributable to the possibility of an outbreak of an unknown major disease, although Bluetongue, Foot and Mouth Disease, and Avian Influenza were also influential. The results show that if the new agency reduces disease costs by even 0.5%, this could benefit society by an estimated £21 million per year. The stochastic approach offers a method for dealing with uncertainties in any continuing deliberations regarding the proposed new agency, resulting in a potential annual gain of £73 million ranging to an annual loss of £144 million.
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    A systems approach to the policy-level risk assessment of exotic animal diseases: network model and application to classical swine fever.
    (Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2013-08-31T00:00:00Z) Delgado, Joao Pedro Correa; Pollard, Simon J. T.; Snary, E. L.; Black, Edgar; Prpich, George; Longhurst, Philip J.
    Exotic animal diseases (EADs) are characterized by their capacity to spread global distances, causing impacts on animal health and welfare with significant economic consequences. We offer a critique of current import risk analysis approaches employed in the EAD field, focusing on their capacity to assess complex systems at a policy level. To address the shortcomings identified, we propose a novel method providing a systematic analysis of the likelihood of a disease incursion, developed by reference to the multibarrier system employed for the United Kingdom. We apply the network model to a policy-level risk assessment of classical swine fever (CSF), a notifiable animal disease caused by the CSF virus. In doing so, we document and discuss a sequence of analyses that describe system vulnerabilities and reveal the critical control points (CCPs) for intervention, reducing the likelihood of U.K. pig herds being exposed to the CSF virus.