Browsing by Author "Rounsevell, M. D. A."

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    Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions
    (Nature Publishing Group, 2016-05-23) Harrison, P. A.; Dunford, Robert W.; Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
    Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single-sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation, which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.
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    The concepts and development of a participatory regional integrated assessment tool.
    (Springer Science Business Media, 2008-09-01T00:00:00Z) Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Cojacaru, G.; Shackley, S.; McLachlan, C.; Audsley, Eric; Berry, P. M.; Fontaine, C.; Harrison, P. A.; Henriques, C.; Mokrech, M.; Nicholls, R. J.; Pearn, Kerry R.; Richards, J. A.
    This paper provides an overview of the development of the ‘Regional Impact Simulator’ – a user friendly software tool designed to allow stakeholders to perform integrated assessments of the effects of climate and/or socio-economic change on the important sectors and resources of two contrasting UK regions. This includes the assessment of agriculture, water resources, biodiversity and coastal and river flooding. The tool arose from the need to further develop the methods applied in the earlier RegIS project, which was the first local to regional integrated assessment in the UK. The limitations of RegIS included very long run times, a limited number of simulations, incomplete linkages between models and no allowance for scenario uncertainty. Based upon the stakeholder needs identified within RegIS, a series of guiding principles were developed with Steering Committee stakeholders, which informed the concept of the ‘Regional Impact Simulator’ including functionality, appearance and complexity. An Integrated Assessment Methodology based upon the Drivers-Pressure-State- Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework facilitated the integration of multiple models, scenarios and datasets within the software interface. The development of the ‘Regional Impact Simulator’ provides a test-bed for further studies of stakeholder-led, regional, integrated assessment, and provides an opportunity to learn the many lessons in undertakin
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    Development and application of participatory integrated assessment software to support local/regional impact and adaptation assessment.
    (Springer Science Business Media, 2008-09-01T00:00:00Z) Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Berry, P. M.; Nicholls, R. J.
    Guest Editorial
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    A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: Part I. Methodology
    (Springer Science Business Media, 2005-07-01T00:00:00Z) Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Shackley, S.; Harrison, P. A.; Nicholls, R. J.; Berry, P. M.; Audsley, Eric
    Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climate change. The 'Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England' (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder- led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross- sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The 'Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response' (DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5x5 km grid was chosen for numerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution (10x10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role of scenarios, error propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability as well as the use of integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments.
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    A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: Part II. Results
    (Springer Science Business Media, 2005-07-01T00:00:00Z) Holman, Ian P.; Nicholls, R. J.; Berry, P. M.; Harrison, P. A.; Audsley, Eric; Shackley, S.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
    The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England’ (RegIS) integrated assessment (IA) investigated climate and socio-economic impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coastal zones and water resources). The baseline and two contrasting climate change scenarios (with and without regional socio-economic change scenarios) were investigated. RegIS showed that climate change, without policy adaptation, could lead to severe flood impacts in East Anglia, and significant agricultural abandonment. Despite yield changes, cropping is generally insensitive to climate, but very sensitive to socio-economic change. There is increased seasonality to river flows, compounded by increased urbanisation and irrigation demand. The responses of biodiversity to climate change are regional, habitat and species-specific, but much of the future of biodiversity in these regions will depend on planned adaptation in the other sectors. Numerous examples of public engagement with the global change sphere represent the real outward value of RegIS, due to the significant uncertainties and limitations to knowledge in this first regional IA which prevented results of the detail, specificity and confidence that decision-makers required. However, with further investment and refinement, regional IA’s will increasingly provide such o
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    What can scenario modelling tell us about future European scale agricultural land use, and what not?
    (Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2006-04-01T00:00:00Z) Audsley, Eric; Pearn, Kerry R.; Simota, C.; Cojocaru, G.; Koutsidou, E.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Trnka, M.; Alexandrov, V.
    Given scenarios describing future climates and socio-techno-economics, this study estimates the consequences for agricultural land use, combining models of crop growth and farm decision making to predict profitability over the whole of Europe, driven solely by soil and climate at each location. Each location is then classified by its profitability as intensive or extensive agriculture or not suitable for agriculture. The main effects of both climate and socio- economics were in the agriculturally marginal areas of Europe. The results showed the effect of different climates is relatively small, whereas there are large variations when economic scenarios are included. Only Finland's agricultural area significantly responds to climate by increasing at the expense of forests in several scenarios. Several locations show more difference due to climate model (PCM versus HadCM3) than emission scenario, because of large differences in predicted precipitation, notably the Ardennes switching to arable in HadCM3. Scenario modelling has identified several such regions where there is a need to be watchful, but few where all of the scenario results agree, suggesting great uncertainty in future projections. Thus, it has not been possible to predict any futures, though all results agree that in Central Europe, changes are likely to be relatively small.