Browsing by Author "Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier"

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    A cost estimating framework for electronic, electrical and electromechanical (EEE) components obsolescence within the use-oriented product-service systems contracts
    (Professional Engineering Publishing, 2012-01-31T00:00:00Z) Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Roy, Rajkumar; Shehab, Essam; Cheruvu, Kalyan; Mason, Phil
    This paper provides a cost estimating framework for electrical, electronic and electromechanical (EEE) components obsolescence, which represents the main source of obsolescence issues, owing to the increasingly short life cycle of these types of component. The framework comprises several areas: component complexity levels, obsolescence management levels, obsolescence resolution profiles and obsolescence cost metrics. Several studies, based on the literature and on interaction with numerous obsolescence management experts from industry, have been employed in this research, following a systematic approach. The framework is able to estimate the non-recurring cost of obsolescence during the contracted period within the inservice phase. This is based on the information available at the bidding stage concerning the product breakdown structure (PBS) and the obsolescence management strategy deployed. This framework has been validated at four different UK organizations in the defence and aerospace sectors using seven case studies, one of which is presented in this paper in detail.
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    Development of a framework for obsolescence resolution cost estimation
    (Cranfield University, 2011-03) Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Roy, Rajkumar; Shehab, Essam
    Currently, manufacturing organisations worldwide are shifting their business models towards Product-Service Systems (PSS), which implies the development of new support agreements such as availability-based contracts. This transition is shifting the responsibilities for managing and resolving obsolescence issues from the customer to the prime contractor and industry work share partners. This new scenario has triggered a new need to estimate the Non-Recurring Engineering (NRE) cost of resolving obsolescence issues at the bidding stage, so it can be included in the support contract. Hence, the aim of this research is to develop an understanding about all types of obsolescence and develop methodologies for the estimation of NRE costs of hardware (electronic, electrical and electromechanical (EEE) components and materials) obsolescence that can be used at the bidding stage for support contracts in the defence and aerospace sectors. For the accomplishment of this aim, an extensive literature review of the related themes to the research area was carried out. It was found that there is a lack of methodologies for the cost estimation of obsolescence, and also a lack of understanding on the different types of obsolescence such as materials and software obsolescence. A systematic industrial investigation corroborated these findings and revealed the current practice in the UK defence sector for cost estimation at the bidding stage, obsolescence management and obsolescence cost estimation. It facilitated the development of an understanding about obsolescence in hardware and software. Further collaboration with experts from more than 14 organisations enabled the iterative development of the EEEFORCE and M-FORCE frameworks, which can be used at the bidding stage of support contracts to estimate the NRE costs incurred during the contracted period in resolving obsolescence issues in EEE components and materials, respectively. These frameworks were implemented within a prototype software platform that was applied to 13 case studies for expert validation.
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    A Methodology for Variability Reduction in Manufacturing Cost Estimating in the Automotive Industry based on Design Features
    (Cranfield University Press, 2009-03-31) Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Roy, Rajkumar; Shehab, Essam; Rajkumar Roy; Essam Shehab
    Small to medium manufacturing companies are coming to realise the increasing importance of performing fast and accurate cost estimates at the early stages of projects to address customers’ requests for quotation. However, they cannot afford the implementation of a knowledge-based cost estimating software. This paper explains the development and validation of a consistent methodology for the cost estimating of manufactured parts (focused on pistons) based on the design features. The research enabled the identification of the sources of variability in cost estimates, and the main one is the lack of formal procedures for the cost estimates in manufacturing SMEs. Finally, a software prototype was developed that reduces the variability in the cost estimates by defining a formal procedure, following the most appropriate cost estimating techniques.
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    Obsolescence Challenges for Product-Service Systems in Aerospace and Defence Industry
    (Cranfield University Press, 2009-04-01) Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Roy, Rajkumar; Shehab, Essam; Wardle, P. J.; Rajkumar Roy; Essam Shehab
    The aerospace and defence industries are moving towards new types of agreement such as availability contracts based on Product-Service System (PSS) business models. Obsolescence has become one of the main problems that will impact on many areas of the system during its life cycle. This paper presents the major challenges to managing obsolescence for availability contracts, identified by means of a comprehensive literature review and several interviews and forums with experts in obsolescence management. It is observed that there is a lack of understanding of the impact of obsolescence on whole life cost. Experts agree that the development of a framework to support estimation, management, and mitigation of these costs is desirable, but the difficulty in forecasting future obsolescence issues constrains industry to a reactive approach rather than proactive.
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    Obsolescence management for long-life contracts: State of the art and future trends
    (Springer Science Business Media, 2009-08-31T00:00:00Z) Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Roy, Rajkumar; Shehab, Essam
    This paper provides a comprehensive literature review on the problem of obsolescence in “sustainment-dominated systems” that require support for many decades. Research on this topic continues to grow as a result of the high impact of obsolescence on the in-service phase of long-term projects. Research on obsolescence also seeks to understand how it can be managed, mitigated and resolved. The paper aims to clarify and classify the different activities that may be included in an obsolescence management planning, taking into account not only electronic components but also other aspects of the system such as mechanical components, software, materials, skills and tooling. The literature review shows that although there are many commercial tools available that support the obsolescence management during the in-service phase of the life cycle of a system, little research has been done to forecast the costs incur
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    Obsolescence Risk Assessment Process Best Practice
    (Institute of Physics (IoP), 2013-01-22) Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Roy, Rajkumar; Kelly, S.
    A component becomes obsolete when it is no longer available from the original manufacturer to the original specification. In long-lifecycle projects, obsolescence has become a major problem as it prevents the maintenance of the system. This is the reason why obsolescence management is now an essential part of the product support activities in sectors such as defence, aerospace, nuclear and railway; where systems need to be supported for several decades. The obsolescence risk assessment for the Bill of Materials is a paramount activity in order to manage obsolescence proactively and cost-effectively. This is the reason why it was necessary to undertake a benchmarking study to develop best practice in this process. A total of 22 obsolescence experts from 13 different organisations/projects from across UK and USA have participated in this study. Their current processes and experience have been taken into account in the development of the best practice process for obsolescence risk assessment. The key factors that have to be analysed in the risk assessment process for each component in the Bill of Materials are: number of manufacturers, years to end of life, stock available, consumption rate and operational impact criticality. For the very high risk components, a more detailed analysis is required to inform the decisions regarding the most suitable mitigation strategies. On the contrary, for the low risk components, a fully proactive approach is neither appropriate nor cost effective. Therefore, it is advised for these components that obsolescence issues are dealt with reactively. This process has been validated using case studies with several experts from industry and is currently being implemented by the UK Ministry of Defence as technical guidance within the JSP 886 Volume 7 Part 8.13 standards.
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    A study on obsolescence resolution profiles
    (Professional Engineering Publishing, 2012-01-31T00:00:00Z) Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Roy, Rajkumar; Shehab, Essam; Cheruvu, Kalyan
    This paper presents a study assessing the probability of selecting a resolution approach to tackle an obsolescence issue. First, the Delphi method was applied across an industry expert panel to derive a set of 15 obsolescence resolution profiles (ORPs). The ORPs represent the probability of using each obsolescence resolution approach to tackle an obsolescence issue. Each ORP is characterized by the complexity level of the obsolete component and the level of proactiveness for obsolescence management, which have been identified as the two major factors that influence the probability of using each resolution approach. Second, the results were enhanced by means of a definitions refinement workshop. Finally, the ORPs were refined and validated by means of a workshop with experts based on the theoretical trends expected for each resolution probability. More than 40 experts in obsolescence from across the UK from the defence, aerospace, railway and nuclear sectors have participated in the study.
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    TOMCAT: An Obsolescence Management Capability Assessment Framework
    (Institute of Physics (IoP), 2013-01-22) Romero Rojo, Francisco Javier; Baguley, Paul; Shaikh, N.; Roy, Rajkumar; Kelly, S.
    As the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) moves away from the traditional support contracts to contracting for availability/capability, it is essential that the MoD has confidence in Industry’s capability to manage the risk of obsolescence. For this purpose, it was necessary to develop a set of metrics to demonstrate it. The eight key elements identified are as follows: obsolescence management governance; supplier; design for obsolescence; risk assessment; obsolescence monitoring; communication; and obsolescence resolution process. Each one was assessed, ranked, and was further broken down into major constituents. They formed the basis of the final 25 metrics, which were then ranked and weighted accordingly. These metrics are embedded into the Total Obsolescence Management Capability Assessment Tool (TOMCAT), which provides a mean for contractors to perform self-assessment and for the MoD to set obsolescence management capability improvement targets. This tool was subjected to rigorous industry scrutiny through different means, including workshops and piloting sessions, which led to refining the TOMCAT tool and the way in which the metrics are formulated. This tool has been developed as a web based application. The MoD is planning to standardise its usage by incorporating it to the obsolescence management policy for defence contracting.