Browsing by Author "Pedde, Simona"
Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
Results Per Page
Sort Options
Item Open Access Advancing the use of scenarios to understand society’s capacity to achieve the 1.5 degree target(Elsevier, 2019-04-15) Pedde, Simona; Kok, Kasper; Hölscher, Katharina; Frantzeskaki, Niki; Holman, Ian P.; Dunford, Rob; Smith, Alison; Jäger, JillWith a range of potential pathways to a sustainable future compatible with the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C target, scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool in studies of climate change mitigation and adaptation. A wide range of alternative scenarios have been created, and core amongst these are five socio-economic scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways or SSPs) and four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs). Whilst mitigation scenarios (the Shared Policy Assumptions, or SPAs) have been developed for each SSP-RCP combination, describing the actions necessary to match the climate pathway of the RCP, there has not yet been a systematic approach to address whether and how these actions can be enabled in practice. We present a novel and transferable framework to understand society’s capacity to achieve the 1.5 °C target, based on four participatory case studies using the SSP-RCP scenarios. The methodology builds on a framework for categorising different types of societal capitals and capacities and assessing their impact on the potential to implement different types of mitigation actions. All four case studies show that SSP1 has the highest potential to reach the target. Although environmental awareness is high in both SSP1 and SSP4, continued social inequalities in SSP4 restrict society’s capacity to transform, despite economic growth. In the two least environmentally-aware SSPs, SSP3 and SSP5, the transformation potential is low, but the view on capitals and capacities nonetheless helps identify opportunities for actors to develop and implement mitigation actions. The study highlights that techno-economic assessments of climate strategies need to be complemented by consideration of the critical role played by social and human capital, and by societal capacity to mobilise and create these capitals despite different socio-economic trends. These capitals and capacities are essential to enable the rapid innovation, behavioural change and international co-ordination needed to achieve the 1.5 °C target.Item Open Access Bridging uncertainty concepts across narratives and simulations in environmental scenarios(2018-05-11) Pedde, Simona; Kok, Kasper; Onigkeit, Janina; Brown, Calum; Holman, Ian P.; Harrison, Paula A.Uncertainties in our understanding of current and future climate change projections, impacts and vulnerabilities are structured by scientists using scenarios, which are generally in qualitative (narrative) and quantitative (numerical) forms. Although conceptually strong, qualitative and quantitative scenarios have limited complementarity due to the lack of a fundamental bridge between two different concepts of uncertainty: linguistic and epistemic. Epistemic uncertainty is represented by the range of scenarios and linguistic variables within them, while linguistic uncertainty is represented by the translation of those linguistic variables via the fuzzy set approach. Both are therefore incorporated in the models that utilise the final quantifications. The application of this method is demonstrated in a stakeholder-led development of socioeconomic scenarios. The socioeconomic scenarios include several vague elements due to heterogeneous linguistic interpretations of future change on the part of stakeholders. We apply the so-called ‘Centre of Gravity’ (CoG) operator to defuzzify the quantifications of linguistic values provided by stakeholders. The results suggest that, in these cases, uniform distributions provide a close fit to the membership functions derived from ranges of values provided by stakeholders. As a result, the 90 or 95% intervals of the probability density functions are similar to the 0.1 or 0.05 degrees of membership of the linguistic values of linguistic variables. By bridging different uncertainty concepts (linguistic and epistemic uncertainties), this study offers a substantial step towards linking qualitative and quantitative scenarios.Item Open Access Co-producing transformative visions for Europe in 2100: A multi-scale approach to orientate transformations under climate change(Elsevier, 2022-09-05) Hölscher, Katharina; Frantzeskaki, Niki; Jäger, Jill; Holman, Ian P.; Pedde, SimonaAchieving sustainability and resilience transformations under climate change requires transformative and multi-scale visions to stimulate coherent thinking and action towards radically alternative futures. We present our approach to co-produce transformative visions contextualised in different regions across Europe, while exploring emergent ‘pan-European’ vision elements to guide transformative climate action across scales. We co-produced visions with stakeholders in four case studies: European, national (Scotland), transboundary river basin (Iberia) and two municipalities (Hungary). All visions share core aspirations for good living, justice and social and environmental wellbeing in Europe, while allowing contextualised interpretation to remain meaningful in view of context-specific needs, priorities, cultural perceptions and aspirations. The visions point to areas where deep transformations are required: in service provisioning from critical infrastructures like energy, food, health and education, and in lifestyles and governance. We discuss two key methodological considerations for the co-production of transformative visions across multiple scales. Firstly, the application of a systematic and comprehensive framework across all scales provided a guide to compare and ensure coherence between visions across multiple scales. Secondly, the creation of transformative spaces to co-produce the visions with stakeholders supported critical reflections and learning about the radical and multi-dimensional changes necessary in different regions in Europe.Item Open Access Differences between low-end and high-end climate change impacts in Europe across multiple sectors(Springer, 2018-05-18) Harrison, Paula A.; Dunford, Rob W.; Holman, Ian P.; Cojocaru, George; Madsen, Marianne S.; Chen, Pei-Yuan; Pedde, Simona; Sandars, DanielThe Paris Agreement established the 1.5 and 2 °C targets based on the recognition “that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”. We tested this assertion by comparing impacts at the regional scale between low-end (< 2 °C; RCP2.6) and high-end (> 4 °C; RCP8.5) climate change scenarios accounting for interactions across six sectors (agriculture, forestry, biodiversity, water, coasts and urban) using an integrated assessment model. Results show that there are only minor differences in most impact indicators for the 2020s time slice, but impacts are considerably greater under high-end than low-end climate change in the 2050s and 2080s. For example, for the 2080s, mitigation consistent with the Paris Agreement would reduce aggregate Europe-wide impacts on the area of intensive agriculture by 21% (on average across climate models), on the area of managed forests by 34%, on water stress by 14%, on people flooded by 10% and on biodiversity vulnerability by 16%. Including socio-economic scenarios (SSPs 1, 3, 4, 5) results in considerably greater variation in the magnitude, range and direction of change of the majority of impact indicators than climate change alone. In particular, socio-economic factors much more strongly drive changes in land use and food production than changes in climate, sometimes overriding the differences due to low-end and high-end climate change. Such impacts pose significant challenges for adaptation and highlight the importance of searching for synergies between adaptation and mitigation and linking them to sustainable development goals.Item Open Access New European socio-economic scenarios for climate change research: operationalising concepts to extend the shared socio-economic pathways(Springer, 2018-08-29) Kok, Kasper; Pedde, Simona; Gramberger, Marc; Harrison, Paula A.; Holman, Ian P.Scenarios have been recognised as a useful tool for planning, which have resulted in a strong increase in the number of (multi-scale) scenarios in climate change research. This paper addresses the need for methodological progress and testing of conceptual considerations, by extending the global shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We present a set of four European SSPs until 2100 and a novel method to develop qualitative stories for Europe equivalent to the global SSPs starting from an existing set of European scenarios. Similar to the global SSPs, the set includes a sustainable future with global cooperation and less intensive lifestyles (We are the World; Eur-SSP1); a future in which countries struggle to maintain living standards in a high-carbon intensive Europe (Icarus; Eur-SSP3); a world in which power becomes concentrated in a small elite and where Europe becomes an important player (Riders on the Storm; Eur-SSP4); and one where a lack of environmental concern leads to the over-exploitation of fossil fuel resources addressed by technological solutions (Fossil-fuelled Development; Eur-SSP5). We conclude that the global SSPs are a good starting point for developing equivalent continental scale scenarios that, in turn, can serve multiple purposes. There are, however, methodological challenges related to the choice for equivalence and the exact methods by which scenarios are constructed that need to be tested further.Item Open Access Synthesizing plausible futures for biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe and Central Asia using scenario archetypes(Resilience Alliance, 2019-06-18) Harrison, Paula A.; Harmáčková, Zuzana V.; Karabulut, Armağan Aloe; Brotons, Lluis; Cantele, Matthew; Claudet, Joachim; Dunford, Robert W.; Guisan, Antoine; Holman, Ian P.; Jacobs, Sander; Kok, Kasper; Lobanova, Anastasia; Morán-Ordóñez, Alejandra; Pedde, Simona; Rixen, Christian; Santos-Martín, Fernando; Schlaepfer, Martin A.; Solidoro, Cosimo; Sonrel, Anthony; Hauck, JenniferScenarios are a useful tool to explore possible futures of social-ecological systems. The number of scenarios has increased dramatically over recent decades, with a large diversity in temporal and spatial scales, purposes, themes, development methods, and content. Scenario archetypes generically describe future developments and can be useful in meaningfully classifying scenarios, structuring and summarizing the overwhelming amount of information, and enabling scientific outputs to more effectively interface with decision-making frameworks. The Intergovernmental Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) faced this challenge and used scenario archetypes in its assessment of future interactions between nature and society. We describe the use of scenario archetypes in the IPBES Regional Assessment of Europe and Central Asia. Six scenario archetypes for the region are described in terms of their driver assumptions and impacts on nature (including biodiversity) and its contributions to people (including ecosystem services): business-as-usual, economic optimism, regional competition, regional sustainability, global sustainable development, and inequality. The analysis shows that trade-offs between nature’s contributions to people are projected under different scenario archetypes. However, the means of resolving these trade-offs depend on differing political and societal value judgements within each scenario archetype. Scenarios that include proactive decision making on environmental issues, environmental management approaches that support multifunctionality, and mainstreaming environmental issues across sectors, are generally more successful in mitigating trade-offs than isolated environmental policies. Furthermore, those scenario archetypes that focus on achieving a balanced supply of nature’s contributions to people and that incorporate a diversity of values are estimated to achieve more policy goals and targets, such as the UN Sustainable Development Goals and the Convention on Biological Diversity Aichi targets. The scenario archetypes approach is shown to be helpful in supporting science-policy dialogue for proactive decision making that anticipates change, mitigates undesirable trade-offs, and fosters societal transformation in pursuit of sustainable development.Item Open Access Transition pathways to sustainability in greater than 2 C climate futures of Europe(Springer, 2019-02-19) Frantzeskaki, Niki; Hölscher, Katharina; Holman, Ian P.; Pedde, Simona; Jaeger, Jill; Kok, Kasper; Harrison, Paula A.The complex challenges arising from climate change that exceeds the +2 °C target (termed ‘high-end climate change’) in Europe require new integrative responses to support transformations to a more sustainable future. We present a novel methodology that combines transition management and high-end climate and socioeconomic change scenarios to identify pathways and move Europe closer to sustainability. Eighteen pathways have been co-created with stakeholders through a participatory process. The pathways support Europe in moving towards a desirable future vision, through top-down and bottom-up actions that lower greenhouse gas emissions, reduce impacts of and vulnerabilities to climate and socioeconomic changes and enhance well-being. Analysis shows that the pathways that are robust to future scenario uncertainty are those that shift Europe towards sustainable lifestyles, support and strengthen good governance for sustainability and promote adaptive resource management for water, agriculture and energy. The methodology can support the design of the urgent actions needed to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement and to transform Europe, in preparation for an uncertain future.