Browsing by Author "Ozkan, Nazmiye"

Now showing 1 - 14 of 14
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    A whole systems view to driving decentralised renewable energy investments in Sub-Saharan Africa.
    (Cranfield University, 2024-01) Abba, Yahajja Zara Ibrahim; Ozkan, Nazmiye; Drew, Gill
    The scaling-up of decentralised renewable energy (DRE), such as solar mini- grids, is vital to achieving climate goals and universal electricity access in sub- Saharan African (SSA) countries. However, high investor risk perception continues to impede DRE investment in SSA, highlighting the importance of understanding investors' risk perception and developing appropriate risk mitigation actions. Yet, the risk management (RM) literature offers a fragmented and singular approach, where the multidimensional nature of risk factors and their interactions are overlooked. In addition, current studies do not consider DRE site- specificity alongside investor heterogeneity in quantifying the implications of mitigation actions on the evolution of investment decisions. In this context, and to address these research gaps, this thesis aims to develop, validate, and implement a unified RM framework incorporating an investment decision model to assess the impacts of actions on investment and electricity access spatially, thus offering a more holistic outcome for decision-makers. This thesis focuses on solar mini-grids in Nigeria, which has one of the highest electricity deficits in SSA. The framework is implemented in two phases. In phase one, investment risks and potential mitigations were evaluated as perceived by four investor groups and various stakeholders through questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and an analytic hierarchy process methodology. In phase two, a novel DRE decision-support model was deployed to enhance existing methods by using a system dynamics-agent-based modelling (SD-ABM) approach. This approach incorporates complex interactions and feedback between heterogeneous investor and location attributes to establish investment outcomes for various case study mitigation scenarios. This thesis the following contributions. Phase one provides new empirical data comprising: identifying 13 additional risk factors compared to the literature, establishing importance of risk factors as perceived by diverse investor groups in Nigeria, and proposing mitigation strategies, some of which were tested in phase two as scenarios. The results indicated variations in risk importance among investors, with the most critical risk factors being revenue risks, limited access to low-cost capital, currency risks, insecurity, and inadequate policy implementation. Phase two contributes to the knowledge of how complex system modelling can be applied to evaluate the impact of mitigation actions on the spatial evolution of DRE investment in a liberalised market. The case study results revealed that the most impactful mitigation scenarios were increased funding availability and the implementation of renewable energy mandates for domestic finance institutions. Whilst our findings confirm the criticality of concessional investors as identified in the literature, we find that meeting electrification targets necessitates incentivising risk-averse non-concessional-type investors. The developed model can additionally enable policymakers to explore the potential implications of further policy actions and investors to identify potential projects that suit their investment profiles during the feasibility phase.
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    An anti-fraud double auction model in vehicle-to-vehicle energy trading with the k-factor approach
    (IEEE, 2024-05-01) Xu, Yiming; Zhang, Lu; Ozkan, Nazmiye; Long, Chao
    The rise in electric vehicle adoption has reduced greenhouse gas emissions in transportation but overloads the power grid due to charging demands. This paper introduces a Double Auction (DA) model in Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) energy trading with the K-factor approach. The novel approach defines unique market clearing prices for each successfully matched V2V transaction pairs, robustly counteracts potential economic fraud. It overcomes shortcoming of some other models of sacrificing participants who could have conducted V2V transactions in order to prevent economic fraud. Meanwhile, the model ensures transactional economic benefits, transparency and fairness. This work facilitates EV adoption across the UK and globally, by increasing confidence and convenience in energy trading mechanisms.
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    Consumer responses to the UK domestic hydrogen transition: Transcription from online focus groups
    (Cranfield University, 2022-08-30 13:02) Gordon, Joel; Ozkan, Nazmiye; ali Nabavi, Seyed
    The data provides transcriptions from ten online focus groups conducted between February 14 and April 6, 2022, which took place on the Zoom platform.The focus groups lasted for approximately 90 minutes with discussion on a range of key topics including cooking and heating preferences, safety perceptions, trust factors, willingness to pay and other market preferences. Participants took three polls during the focus group and were also provided with some information provision materials, which included two short videos and three PowerPoint presentations (on the UK Hydrogen Strategy; the key actors and stakeholders of the domestic hydrogen transition; and the spatial dynamics of the transition).
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    Data underpinning research article "Optimising Renewable Energy Integration in New Housing Developments with Low Carbon Technologies"
    (Cranfield University, 2021-02-09 00:33) Chowdhury, Jahedul; Ozkan, Nazmiye; Hart, Phil; Varga, Liz; Hu, Yukun
    This file includes data for energy demand and generation profile for different house types in the UK. It also contains data for daily average solar irradiance for typical UK weather conditions that were used for calculating PV outputs.
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    Data underpinning research article "Techno-environmental analysis of battery storage for grid level energy services"
    (Cranfield University, 2020-07-17 09:07) Chowdhury, Jahedul; Ozkan, Nazmiye; Goglio, Pietro; Hu, Yukun; Varga, Liz; McCabe, Leah
    This file includes data from the National Grid, UK for electricity supply and demand which was modified according to the research methodology laid out in the paper here (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2020.110018). Also, all the data needed for reproducing figures presented in the journal article are also included in the data file.
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    Domestic hydrogen acceptance in the UK: Public perceptions of energy and environmental issues
    (Cranfield University, 2022-10-31 14:45) Gordon, Joel; Ozkan, Nazmiye; ali Nabavi, Seyed
    This file provides evidence on public perceptions of energy and environmental issues in the United Kingdom. Online focus groups were conducted (February - April 2022) to examine consumer attitudes towards domestic hydrogen technologies for home use (heating and cooking appliances). At the start of each focus groups, participants were asked to give their views about climate change and the environment, and to describe their current level of engagement with pro-environmental behaviours including energy consumption habits. A total of 38 individual responses were recorded (n=58).
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    Hydrogen Homes Dataset 2022
    (Cranfield University, 2023-11-08 09:38) Gordon, Joel; Ozkan, Nazmiye; ali Nabavi, Seyed
    These files present data gathered on public perceptions of hydrogen homes (i.e. appliances for heating and cooking purposes) in the United Kingdom, following a broadly nationally representative survey (N = 1845) conducted between 06/10/2023 and 23/12/2023. All survey responses were measured using either a five-point or eleven-point Likert scale. The survey questions are provided alongside the recorded responses.
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    Hydrogen Homes Dataset for H2 Acceptance Matrix analysis
    (Cranfield University, 2024-02-27 16:05) Gordon, Joel; Ozkan, Nazmiye; ali Nabavi, Seyed
    This dataset records qualitative answers (written statements) given by respondents at the end of an online survey (programmed in Qualtrics) on domestic hydrogen in the United Kingdom (N= 1845). The open-ended question was specified as follows: lease use this text box to explain more about your attitudes towards hydrogen or any other reflections on this topic. Around two-thirds (N = 1213) provided written responses, which were subsequently coded according to one-dimensional (hydrogen pessimist, hydrogen sceptic, hydrogen cautious, hydrogen neutral, hydrogen curious, hydrogen hopeful, or hydrogen optimist) and multi-dimensional responses (e.g. hydrogen hopeful yet cautious, or hydrogen cautious but otherwise neutral etc.) 81.8% of respondents expressed a one-dimensional perspective (N = 992). The data collection period ran between 06/10/2023–23/12/2023. The survey duration was approximately 15–20 minutes. In published materials, we use the term Hydrogen Homes (H2H) dataset to denote outputs from this project.
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    'Perceived Adoption Potential for Hydrogen Homes: October-December 2022 Dataset
    (Cranfield University, 2024-05-01 12:35) Gordon, Joel; Ozkan, Nazmiye; ali Nabavi, Seyed
    The Excel file presents data collected between 06/10/2023 and 23/12/2023 from a nationally representative UK survey engaging with public perceptions of hydrogen homes - appliances for residential space heating, hot water and cooking. The first excel sheet provides data for the full sample (N = 1845). The second sheet provides data for sub-sample (N = 442) that was extracted to support multi-group analysis. The third sheet provides data for a derived segment of female mortage owners aged 18-34 (N = 282), while the fourth sheet reports data for a smaller segment of male property owners aged 55+. Additional sheets provide the numerical inputs for conducting statistical analyses using Latent Variable Scores, as extracted via Importance-performance map analysis (IMPA) in SmartPLS 4.1 The output from this dataset was used to examine the effects of safety, technological, economic, environmental and emotional perspectives on the perceived adoption potential of hydrogen homes.
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    Poster Presentations for UK Conference events 2022: Hydrogen homes and social acceptance in the United Kingdom
    (Cranfield University, 2022-10-28 16:42) Gordon, Joel; Ozkan, Nazmiye; ali Nabavi, Seyed
    These contributions represent findings from a series of online focus groups conducted with members of the UK public (n=58) between February and April, 2022. The study set out to better understand consumer attitudes towards the proposition of converting the national gas grid to enable a domestic hydrogen future; composed of hydrogen home appliances for space heating, hot water, and cooking. The posters show that that future heating systems should ensure thermal comfort, ease of use, energy efficiency, and smart performance, while providing space savings and noise reduction, alongside demonstrable environmental benefits. For cooking systems, consumers wish to preserve the best features of gas, such as speed, responsiveness, and controllability, but also desire the potential safety and aesthetic benefits of electric systems, principally induction hobs. For the most part, hydrogen heating and cooking appear welcome prospects for natural gas users, with no discernible preference for hobs over boilers, or vice-versa. Notwithstanding, careful attention is needed to understand the interplay between static and dynamic factors, such as personal values and beliefs, and changes in culture and energy markets. Furthermore, hydrogen policy should align to ensuring greater transparency concerning the benefits, costs, and risks of the transition. This involves clearer explanation regarding the justification and implications of hydrogen production pathways and emerging hydrogen geographies. The analysis concludes that consumer heterogeneity must be internalized into policymaking to enact socially acceptable transition pathways for the UK housing stock.
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    Qualitative responses to Hydrogen Homes (H2H) Online Survey 2022.docx
    (Cranfield University, 2024-01-16 15:07) Gordon, Joel; Ozkan, Nazmiye; ali Nabavi, Seyed
    This file records responses given by online survey participants in the UK (N = 1845) to a questionnaire on the domestic hydrogen transition, which was programmed using Qualtrics. The data collection period lasted between 06/10/2023 and 23/12/2023, supported by a professional market research company (Savanta). The survey duration was approximately 15 to 20 minutes. Domestic hydrogen refers to hydrogen-fuelled appliances for heating and cooking, collectively referred to as hydrogen homes. All survey responses were measured using either a five-point or eleven-point Likert scale.At the end of the survey, participants were requested to respond to the following open-ended question which concluded the survey: Please use this text box to explain more about your attitudes towards hydrogen or any other reflections on this topic.Around two-thirds of respondents (N = 1213) provided a valid response. The sample was composed of four specific consumer sub-groups, which returned a relatively balanced response rate (M = 66.3%; SD = 3.0). In published materials, we use the term Hydrogen Homes (H2H) dataset to denote outputs from this project.
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    Qualtrics survey screeners for online focus groups_Domestic hydrogen acceptance 2022.docx
    (Cranfield University, 2022-10-27 16:12) Gordon, Joel; Ozkan, Nazmiye; ali Nabavi, Seyed
    The file provides the full versions of six unique screening surveys built in Qualtrics as part of the recruitment process for a series of online focus groups, conducted between February and April 2022. The content shows all questions as well as the filtering process. The surveys were designed to recruit against six specific groups: Renewable energy communities; smart homes and solar homes; environmentally engaged; technology engaged; industrial towns; fuel poor; and a baseline group excluding all previous specifications. The project is part of a study exploring consumer perceptions of domestic hydrogen for home heating and cooking, and social acceptance levels across different consumer groups and demographics.
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    Solar PV modelling at local level - Raw Data
    (Cranfield University, 2021-01-07 11:09) Ozkan, Nazmiye; Hart, Phil; Truckell, Ian; Yildirim, Julide; Connor, Peter
    This dataset includes the raw data used in the modelling of solar PV adoption at LAD level. For description of the variables, please refer to Table 4 of the journal article titled 'Energy transition at local level: analyzing the role of peer effects and socio-economic factors on UK solar photovoltaic deployment'.
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    Towards a unified theory of domestic hydrogen acceptance: a mixed-methods multigroup analysis.
    (Cranfield University, 2023-10) Gordon, Joel Adam; Ozkan, Nazmiye; Nabavi, Ali
    The historical record reflects the need to understand the dynamics of social acceptance in advance of technology deployment to minimise the risk of non-adoption or slow diffusion. In the emerging context of hydrogen energy technologies, research on social acceptance has ebbed and flowed, reflecting various hype cycles associated with the hydrogen economy. Following primary interest in public perceptions of hydrogen for transport applications, a social science research agenda on hydrogen energy technologies for domestic space and hot water heating, and cooking has recently emerged. Research uptake follows growing policy interest in converting the national gas grid to hydrogen in countries such as the United Kingdom. The question remains, how do existing gas users in the United Kingdom perceive the prospect of switching to a hydrogen home? In response, this thesis advances a unified theory and establishes a comprehensive typology of domestic hydrogen acceptance, which embed multiple dimensions such as knowledge and awareness, environmental attitude, and financial perceptions. Partial least squares structural equation modelling is employed to determine the antecedents of domestic hydrogen acceptance and adoption intention, which include perceived community benefits, perceptions of hydrogen production pathways, public trust, and positive emotions. Subsequently, partial least squares multigroup analysis is applied to explore the potential for divergent consumer perceptions and preferences. Notably, the statistical findings suggest technology perceptions is the main determinant of adoption potential among consumers who are non-engaged in technology and the environment. By contrast, production perceptions and safety perceptions hold the strongest influence among consumers who are at least moderately engaged in technology and the environment. This thesis enriches conceptual and empirical understanding on the dynamics of domestic hydrogen acceptance and adoption in support of securing a socially acceptable transition pathway for residential decarbonisation. Foremost, segment- specific strategies should be embedded into national and regional policy making on the domestic hydrogen transition to steer progress towards realising a net-zero society.