Browsing by Author "Morris, Joe"

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    Agricultural Futures and Implications for the Environment.
    (2005-11-01T00:00:00Z) Morris, Joe; Audsley, Eric; Wright, Iain A.; McLeod, Jim; Pearn, Kerry R.; Angus, Andrew; Rickard, Sean
    In this context, the overall aim of project is to explore possible long term futures for agriculture in England and Wales in order to inform decision-making on environmental policy and provide a 2 framework for Defra research on sustainable agriculture, climate change and other environmental issues.
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    Agricultural technology and land use futures: The UK case
    (Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2009-12-31T00:00:00Z) Burgess, Paul J.; Morris, Joe
    This paper explores how agricultural technology has interacted with recent land use in the UK and how it might do so in the next 50 years. From 1960 to 1985, farmers successfully used technology to increase the output of crop and animal products per unit of land and particularly of labour. This reduced the number of people employed in agriculture, and promoted larger and more specialised farm enterprises. Between 1985 and 2006, food prices were relatively low, and although labour productivity continued to increase, land productivity remained relatively static. However during this period, farmers started to address the effects of agriculture on reduced water quality and habitat loss. For established agricultural products, technological innovation tends to have an incremental effect, working through genetic improvement, the removal of abiotic and biotic stress (e.g. crop nutrition and protection, irrigation and drainage, and animal nutrition, health and housing) and the substitution of labour. Whereas the first two processes tend to be scale-neutral, the substitution of labour is usually easiest to achieve on larger farms. Other key areas for technological innovation include addressing air, soil and water quality, biodiversity, waste reduction, and information management. Over the next 50 years, large step-changes in land use arising from agricultural technology are predicted to arise from the development of new markets for agricultural products. A strong bioenergy sector will strengthen the links between crop commodity and energy prices and will have a major effect on future land use. Climate change and the regulation of greenhouse gas emissions will alter the relative profitability of crop and animal production systems. Lastly, increased public awareness of the links between food, health and the environment could substantially shift the demand for specific agricultural products. Continual improvements in agricultural technology are pivotal to providing society with the flexibility to balance the challenges of improving human well-being with the management of the planet’s ecosystem. Increased technological innovation increases the probability that agricultural land can be used for other purposes, but the exact relationship is dependent on trade and environmental policies. The large external effects of agriculture mean that decisions regarding the adoption of future technologies should be taken by farmers working with other stakeholders. © 2009 Queen’s Printer and Controller of HMSO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rig
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    Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands
    (Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2009-07-01T00:00:00Z) Agbenyega, Olivia; Burgess, Paul J.; Cook, Matthew; Morris, Joe
    Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the manage
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    Assessing preferences for cultural ecosystem services in the English countryside using Q methodology
    (MDPI, 2023-01-26) Hubatova, Marie; McGinlay, James; Parsons, David J.; Morris, Joe; Graves, Anil R.
    Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) are difficult to assess due to the subjective and diverse way in which they are experienced. This can make it difficult to apply CES research to enhance human experience of nature. This study applies Q methodology to group people according to their preferences for CES. The Q methodology survey was carried out with 47 local residents and tourists in Wiltshire, in South West England. Four groups of respondents were identified drawing value from nature through: (1) spiritual benefits and mental well-being (Group 1—Inspired by nature); (2) nature and biodiversity conservation (Group 1—Conserving nature); (3) cultural heritage in multifunctional landscapes (Group 3—Countryside mix); and (4) opportunities for outdoor activities (Group 4—Outdoor pursuits). All four groups stated that benefits from nature were enhanced by actually visiting the countryside, through a better understanding of nature itself, and through a range of sensory experiences. They particularly identified relaxation opportunities as a very important CES benefit. These findings, and the demonstrated use of the Q methodology, could support local planning and landscape management in order to provide accessible and functional landscapes that can provide a range of different CES benefits to people.
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    Assessing the environmental impacts of healthier diets. Final report to Defra on project FO0427
    (2018-09-27) Williams, Adrian; Morris, Joe; Audsley, Eric; Hess, Tim; Goglio, Pietro; Burgess, Paul; Chatterton, Julia; Pearn, Kerry; Mena, Carlos; Whitehead, Peter
    Summary: oncern about the public health impacts of dietary habits in the UK have led to initiatives to encourage healthier eating, notably in the dietary guidelines represented of the eatwell plate (FSA, 2007) and the Eatwell Guide (NHS, 2016c). A change in UK dietary habits towards healthier eating would result in changes in the type and quantities of food items in the national diet, with implications for agricultural, food and allied industries. More specifically, this could lead to changes in land use and farming practices, both for the UK and its trading partners, with associated effects on greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts. In this context, and sponsored by Defra, this study set out using a series of scenarios to assess the environmental impacts of changing dietary habits and specifically the adoption of healthier eating in the UK, and in broad terms some of the likely social and economic impacts on the agricultural and food sector, through a set of hypothetical scenarios. The main objectives were to: i) determine the consumption of food under possible future food consumption scenarios in the UK, including the eatwell plate; ii) quantify the production of agricultural commodities needed to meet the food needs of each scenario; iii) quantify the environmental impacts of food commodity production and consumption by scenarios, and iv) identify, in broad terms, the possible economic and societal impacts of dietary changes.
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    Asset management in urban water utilities: Case study in India
    (Cranfield University, 2008) Brighu, Urmila; Franceys, Richard; Morris, Joe
    Access to safe and sufficient drinking water and adequate sanitation are now recognized as basic human rights. One Millennium Development Goal is to reduce by half the proportion of people without access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation by 2015. However, ensuring sustainability of existing and new services is considered to be one of the major challenges for the water sector in the years to come. In India, in addition to service expansion, existing water service quality has been observed to be deteriorating over recent years. There is therefore an equally urgent need to address sustainability and improvement of service quality to the presently served population. In this low-income country, where water utilities are unable to recover even the service costs of operations and minor maintenance through user charges, there is a need to determine ways and means to be able to maintain a cost-effective service to consumers. For such a capital intensive service these ways have to include not only the introduction of efficiency measures but also the long-term planning of capital maintenance, that is the maintenance of the fixed assets upon which services depend. Water utilities in high-income countries have been using various fixed asset management techniques to improve asset operational efficiency, to plan capital maintenance and to demonstrate their ability to maintain and improve service to their customers. This study explores the viability of the application of asset management techniques and their potential contribution towards improving water service provision in urban centres in India. Following a literature review, a generic asset management model for a low-income country water utility was developed and then applied in the water utility serving Jaipur, Rajasthan to assess the viability of this adaptation. Having identified strengths and weaknesses during this fieldwork a revised model was proposed, including distinct phases of asset management/data intensity, which could be used as a generic approach in large urban centres in India. Following consultations with prospective users in six States, the study showed that it is feasible to take a first step towards asset management at low cost but this will require a change in the management approach. The study identified lack of relevant data as a key factor influencing an effective and comprehensive application of a generic asset management model. The study concludes that the proposed phased asset management models can contribute to improving serviceability for customers; however the concern that remains is the willingness of the organisation to adapt to the necessary changes.
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    Biodiversity and cultural ecosystem benefits in lowland landscapes in southern England
    (Elsevier, 2017-08-09) King, Helen P.; Morris, Joe; Graves, Anil; Bradbury, Richard B.; McGinlay, James; Bullock, James M.
    Evidence of the link between biodiversity and cultural ecosystem benefits (CEB) is scarce. Participatory workshops were used to explore perceptions of CEB attributable to biodiversity in lowland arable and semi-natural grassland landscapes in southern England. Increased biodiversity was found to be associated with greater perceived benefit, mainly at the habitat and landscape scale. It was, however, difficult to separate the effects of biodiversity from those of abiotic and human-made features, all of which combined to provide an important sense of place. Furthermore, CEB were strongly linked with supporting infrastructure, notably public access. It was observed that CEB were generated through socio-psychological 'pathways' as people interacted with environmental settings, such as acquiring knowledge, feeling regenerated and communicating with others. CEB were also attributed to provisioning and regulatory services, questioning the validity of partitioning cultural services. The findings have implications for practitioners designing programmes to enhance nature's contribution to people.
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    Cloud detection over land for the A-long track scanning radiomater using a fuzzy-set methodology
    (Cranfield University, 2001-01) Smith, R. J.; Hobbs, S. E.; Morris, Joe
    Political, environmental, and commercial needs for information on the Earths surface and atmosphere drive the development of improved satellite data products. At visible and thermal wavelengths the quality of these products is dependent on our ability to distinguish between clouds and the underlying surface. Unlike oceans, land surfaces are highly heterogeneous, containing a wide range of materials, some of which exhibit similar spectral properties to cloud, and hence it is much harder to distinguish between the two. ~ This research project, supported by the Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (ATSR) science team at the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), addresses the need for improved cloud detection over land surfaces through the development of an unsupervised cloud detection system for global ATSR-2 scenes over land surfaces. The thesis details the development of the first successful un-supervised near-global cloud detection scheme for ATSR-2 scenes over land surfaces. The scheme developed operates on ATSR-2 data using a fuzzy set methodology. The level of membership of the fuzzy sets is determined using aggregated Gaussian distribution functions defined in a knowledge base that has been developed from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) data sets. This is the first cloud detection algorithm that is uniquely customisable to its end users needs. Specifically, this is achieved through the use of fuzzy set theory and set membership grades. This elegant solution to the problem achieves cloud detection as oppose to cloud clearing, and its final output retains all the information computed on possible classifications of image pixels, thus providing the end user with a true representation of the imprecision inherent in the real-world data. A comprehensive quantitative evaluation and inter-comparison of cloud clearing schemes is presented. This showed that with respect to other algorithms (in literature and currently under development at RAL) F-CLOUD is one of the frontrunners in a new generation of cloud detection algorithms over land surfaces. The scheme is highly accurate and has immediate potential applications within the development programme of future ATSR-2/AATSR products at RAL. Using confusion matricies to analyse hardened results yielded a mean classification accuracy of 92.3% (for a total of forty-five scenes analysed against neph-analysis derived cloud masks).
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    A compensatory framework for sustainable development: the case of Tanzania
    (Cranfield University, 2010) Mtoni, Paul E; Morris, Joe
    Development projects, such as plantations and infrastructure improvements, provide benefits for people at the regional and national scales. They can also result in negative impacts and costs borne by some members of society. Projects are deemed worthwhile if overall welfare is enhanced and, in principle, the gainers could compensate the losers. In this respect, compensation is an important measure or method of redistribution of benefits and costs between the gainers and losers in the context of development projects. It is also a potential strategy for addressing concerns of social justice, fairness, equity and disputes through negotiation. This research explores the potential use of compensation for promoting the sustainability of development projects and rural livelihoods in the context of developing economy, namely Tanzania. The literature review and exploratory visits to the study area revealed relevant theories, concepts and practical issues of compensation. An innovative framework that integrates the Coase theorem, Millennium ecosystem approach and the concepts of sustainable livelihoods was developed and used in assessing and analysing compensation practices of two project case studies. The research adapted a case study strategy for studying compensation in its geographical settings. Tanzania was used as the country case from which the teak and gaspipeline projects were selected as project case studies. One village in each project area was selected for detailed study. Key informants and focus group interviews provided initial insights into project impacts and compensation regimes. Twelve in-depth case studies were carried out on affected households. Key sustainability issues pertinent to compensation, people’s livelihoods and projects were verified using a questionnaire survey that involved 120 households. Other two surveys were carried out to collect views on compensation views in Tanzania from project developers and service providers. Triangulation of research methods, tools and sources of information enhanced quality of both qualitative and quantitative information. Cont/d.
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    Do charismatic species groups generate more cultural ecosystem service benefits?
    (Elsevier, 2017-08-01) McGinlay, James; Parsons, David J.; Morris, Joe; Hubatova, Marie; Graves, Anil; Bradbury, Richard B.; Bullock, James M.
    The relationship between nature and cultural ecosystem service (CES) benefits is well accepted but poorly understood, as is the potential role of biodiversity in the relationship. By means of a public questionnaire survey in Wiltshire, UK, the relationship between the presence of a range of common species groups, species group ‘charisma’, group abundance in the landscape, and the benefit that people felt that they derived from the species groups was investigated for a lowland multifunctional landscape. Findings showed that species group charisma influenced the benefit reported by respondents for current abundance levels, and influenced their response to potential increases or decreases in abundance. Respondents reported high levels of benefit from species groups hypothesised to be charismatic (birds, flowering plants, butterflies) and there was high consistency in the pattern of response. Respondents reported less benefit from groups hypothesised to be less charismatic (beetles/bugs, brambles and nettles), the latter response patterns showing much greater variation. These results could be used to promote a more holistic understanding of the value of biodiversity by educating and informing the public so that they derive benefit not just from the charismatic, but also from the everyday, the commonplace and less obviously charismatic species.
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    The economic sustainability of smallholder tea production systems in Tanzania
    (Cranfield University, 2006-04) Simbua, E. F.; Morris, Joe
    Tea is an important crop in Tanzania, contributing over US$45 million to exports each year. It is grown by over 30,000 smallholder households, and a further 10,000 people are employed in the estates sector. In this context, this study explores the current and potential contribution of the smallholder tea sector towards economic sustainability of the Tanzanian tea industry and rural livelihoods. Following literature review and an exploratory study of key stakeholders, a methodology incorporating two main components, an Asset Based Model of Sustainability and a Value Chain Assessment Model, was developed and applied to assess the sustainability of the smallholder tea production systems. The tea based livelihood systems and the associated tea value chains for three case study areas were compared involving a survey of over 300 tea growing and over 100 non-tea growing households, and three processing factories. The study showed that there is an existing synergy between processing factories and smallholder producers which is important for the future development as factories are set to expand the volume of greenleaf sourced from smallholders. At farm level, greenleaf prices, yield, access to input credit, access to research and extension support, availability of farm labour, and access to a reliable greenleaf markets were identified as critical factors that influence the livelihood of the tea growing households. The quantitative analysis showed clear association between farmers involvement in tea production and accumulation of assets (natural, physical and financial), confirming the role of tea in supporting livelihoods. The study concludes that the smallholder tea production systems can contribute to sustainable livelihood systems. Finally the study gives recommendation for various groups of stakeholders regarding ways to improve the performance of the smallholder production systems.
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    Economic valuation of ecosystem goods and services: a review for decision makers
    (Taylor and Francis, 2019-06-11) Tinch, Robert; Beaumont, Nicola; Sunderland, Tim; Ozdemiroglu, Ece; Barton, David; Bowe, Colm; Börger, Tobias; Burgess, Paul; Cooper, Canon Nigel; Faccioli, Michela; Failler, Pierre; Gkolemi, Ioanna; Kumar, Ritesh; Longo, Alberto; McVittie, Alistair; Morris, Joe; Park, Jacob; Ravenscroft, Neil; Schaafsma, Marije; Vause, James; Ziv, Guy
    There is increasing interest in the use of economic valuation of ecosystem goods and services for a wide variety of purposes. These include relatively familiar uses in project appraisal and more novel applications in advocacy, performance tracking and accounting in public and private settings. Decision makers who use valuation information need to understand the background, strengths and weaknesses of these approaches. The methods have a strong foundation in economic theory and offer a rapidly growing evidence base, improving ability to evaluate a broad range of ecosystem goods and services. Nevertheless, there are theoretical and practical limitations that need to be understood and kept in mind when interpreting results. In this paper, we briefly review the economic valuation methods and situate them in their historical and theoretical contexts. We assess the main critiques, attempts at resolving them, and implications for the usefulness of the methods in different contexts. We examine the main barriers and opportunities for wider uses of valuation evidence, and draw conclusions on the appropriate role of valuation in future, as a tool for aiding reflection and deliberation processes.
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    Essential irrigation and the economics of strawberries in a temperate climate
    (Elsevier, 2017-09-11) Morris, Joe; Else, M. A.; El Chami, D.; Daccache, Andre; Rey, Dolores; Knox, Jerry W.
    Strawberries are a high value crop in the UK soft fruit sector, with the majority of production grown at field-scale and under protected (polytunnel) conditions. Despite its importance to the rural economy, there is surprisingly little published scientific evidence on the economics of irrigated strawberry production and the value of water in this horticultural sector. A survey of growers, supplemented by secondary data and industry sources, shows considerable variation in key physical and financial performance indicators, both within and between different strawberry production systems, as well as evidence of good practice. Water application depths ranged widely from 800 to over 2000 m3 ha−1 according to grower and crop variety. Irrigation costs typically range between £1.30 and £2.50 m−3 of water applied, highest where storage reservoirs and public water supplies are used. The average value of irrigation water for strawberry net of costs was about £6 m−3, much higher than for field crops such as potatoes. The importance of a reliable water supply to support irrigated strawberry production is highlighted. Climate change and growing pressures on water resources are likely to force a greater interest in irrigation economics in the soft fruit sector, especially in the face of restrictions on summer abstraction and rising competition and charges for using public water supply.
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    Food safety risk: consumer food purchase models
    (Cranfield University, 2002-07) Yeung, Ruth Mo Wah; Morris, Joe
    Recent high profile food safety incidents in the United Kingdom have shaken consumer confidence in food products. Consumer perception of risk is seen to be very relevant to food safety issues. The impact of this perceived risk on purchase behaviour is also critical to the development of risk management strategies by authorities responsible for public health and the food industry. Focusing on fresh chicken meat products, this study explored the relationship between food risk characteristics, consumer perception of food safety related risk, consumer purchase behaviour and actions that can be taken to reduce the exposure to food risk. Following an extensive literature review, an exploratory study in the form of face-toface interviews was carried out to clarify the main concerns of food hazards, and to identify the items of perceived consequent loss and risk reducing strategies adopted by consumers. The findings were verified through a quantitative survey of 200 respondents. The data was presented in the form of Structural Equation Modelling, and analysed by the LISREL 8.30 statistical package. The results showed that consumer risk perception was affected by a range of risk characteristics, such as consumer concern about the severity of the food risk, and the potential long-term adverse effect on future generation and environment. The main elements of perceived loss associated with food safety were health, financial, time, lifestyle and taste losses, and these were shown to have a negative effect on purchase likelihood. Two other risk characteristics namely, perceived knowledge and own control of the food risk were found to be linked directly and positively to consumer purchase likelihood. Risk reducing strategies such as branded product, product quality assurance and product information adopted by consumers were identified and found to be consistent with the marketing strategies used by the food industry. These risk-reducing strategies have a negative relationship with consumer risk perception. This study presented empirical evidence for characterising types of food risks and explains how food risks and risk reducing strategies affect consumer risk perception as well as purchase likelihood. Consequently, two quantitative consumer food purchase models were developed. These models can help the government and the food industry to identify key factors to develop systematic strategies for risk management and risk communication in order to allocate resources efficiently and effectively. They can also use these models to measure the effectiveness of their risk management policy in the times of concern about food safety. This study recommends further research to apply these models in other types of food products and other types of risk, such as chemical risk, and technological risk, in particular for those risks which are beyond the control of consumers. The differences in risk perception between cultures and socio-economic groupings should be explored further. This is a valid topic for further research and provides potential benefits for consumers and food industry as a whole.
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    Food safety, consumer trust in livestock farmers and purchase likelihood
    (Cranfield University, 2002-10) Yee, Wallace Man Shek; Morris, Joe
    Food safety is an important issue facing consumers, the food industry and the government. Since consumers cannot themselves easily assess food safety risks, their perception of food safety is in part a matter of trust in the food chain. This study focuses on livestock farmers and investigates the causal relationship between the factors which determine consumer trust regarding food safety and in turn their purchase likelihood. The main research questions are: 1) What are the key factors which build consumer trust in this context? 2) What are the contributions of these factors to building consumer trust? 3) Is there any relationship between consumer trust and purchase likelihood? By integrating theories developed in several disciplines, six factors, namely: providing information, competence, integrity, benevolence, credibility and reliability were identified to have a strong influence on consumer trust in livestock farmers. An exploratory study in the form of face-to-face interviews was carried out to clarify the main concerns of livestock husbandry practices, and to identify the items to measure the causal factors of consumer trust in livestock farmers regarding food safety. Because the objectives set out in this study could not be achieved by using multiple regression, which could not handle latent variables, the conceptual model was tested with a quota sample of 194 individuals in the form of a Structural Equation Model using LISREL 8.30. It was proved successful in identifying the effects of the causal factors of trust to build consumer trust and in turn to affect purchase likelihood. The factor ‘providing information’ was identified to be a key factor by which trust is built and the features that lead to trust, namely: ‘competence’, ‘integrity’, ‘credibility’, ‘reliability’, and ‘benevolence’ were identified to be factors to build trust in livestock farmers. Representatives of the livestock industry were approached to confirm the relevance of the study and facilitate the interpretation of the findings. Though there is a limitation of its generalisation due to the sampling method, there is evidence that these factors are important to building consumer trust in livestock farmers regarding food safety. The evidence also suggests that there is a strong relationship between trust and consumer purchase likelihood. The research confirms that livestock farmers could draw benefit from strategies to increase their trustworthiness and in turn positively influence consumers’ purchasing decision. This study recommends further research to apply this model in other industries where the suppliers have little contact with consumers. The differences in trust building between cultures and the communication channels that livestock farmers representatives should used are also suggested for further study. Future research on how the food industry should respond to the change in consumer trust during periods of concern about food safety is also recommended. These are valid topics for future research and will provide potential benefits for consumers and food industry as a whole.
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    Food, land and greenhouse gases The effect of changes in UK food consumption on land requirements and greenhouse gas emissions. Report for the Committee on Climate Change.
    (2010-12-21T00:00:00Z) Audsley, Eric; Angus, Andrew; Chatterton, Julia C.; Graves, Anil R.; Morris, Joe; Murphy-Bokern, Donal; Pearn, Kerry R.; Sandars, Daniel L.; Williams, Adrian G.
    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY •1. Key findingsThis study examines the land use and greenhouse gas implications of UK food consumption change away from carbon intensive products. It shows that the UK agricultural land base can support increased consumption of plant-based products arising from the reduced consumption of livestock products. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption reduces the area of arable and grassland required to supply UK food, both in the UK and overseas. It also reduces emissions of greenhouse gases from primary production by 19%. A switch from beef or sheepmeat (red meat) to pork or poultry (white meat) reduces food consumption related greenhouse gas emissions and the land area required but increases overseas arable land use. With this exception, the release of arable land now used to grow animal feed exceeds the additional arable land required for increased plant based foods in both the UK and overseas. Reducing livestock product consumption also has the potential to enable delivery of other significant environmental benefits, for example, reductions in ammonia and nitrate emissions. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption reduces UK grassland needs for UK food production by several million hectares. This land could be used to supply livestock products for export markets although our scenarios assume that the proportions of imports, domestic production and exports remain constant. In these circumstances, some of the grassland released could be used to produce arable crops, including crops for biofuel production. Almost all of it could be converted to woodland or managed in other ways for biodiversity and/or amenity purposes. Conversion of this land resource to woodland has significant potential to increase soil carbon storage while supplying biomass for energy. Scenario Cropped area required, kha Grassland area required, kha Total area, kha Greenhouse gas emissions, kt CO2e/ year * UK OS Total UK OS Total UK OS Total Baseline 3,388 4,458 7,846 11,228 1,944 13,172 21,018 51,693 29,001 80,694 50% reduction in livestock with land release priority: Uniform 3,123 4,131 7,254 4,161 700 4,861 12,115 36,282 29,456 65,738 Maximise non-tillable land release 3,123 4,131 7,254 2,905 700 3,605 10,859 36,246 29,451 65,697 Maximise release of tillable land 3,123 4,131 7,254 7,102 700 7,802 15,056 36,282 29,457 65,739 Red to white meat with land release priority: Uniform 3,443 4,908 8,351 3,879 486 4,365 12,716 45,812 27,575 73,387 Maximise release of non-tillable land 3,443 4,909 8,352 2,909 486 3,395 11,747 45,867 27,572 73,439 Maximise release of tillable land 3,443 4,908 8,351 6,947 486 7,433 15,784 45,878 27,575 73,453 50% reduction in white meat consumption: Uniform 3,201 3,735 6,936 11,228 1,944 13,172 20,108 49,525 28,500 78,025 * The greenhouse gas emissions do not include possible effects of land use changeSummary table. The area of land needed to supply UK food and the greenhouse gas emissions from food production under current circumstances and under the seven scenarios studied. In a reduction scenario, concentrating remaining livestock production on different land types (e.g. concentrating on intensive production on lowland farms versus extensive production on lower quality land) has little effect on greenhouse gas emissions from primary production. This indicates that there is relatively little scope to reduce emissions by restructuring production (at least restructuring in relation to land use). It is further noted that concentrating livestock production on higher quality land would cause an almost complete closure of production for UK markets on land not suited to intensive grass or arable production, with biodiversity and economic impacts (discussed further below). The risks of unintended consequences with respect to greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low given the assumptions in the scenarios, but the actuality of such change will depend on future economic, social and political drivers. The report includes detailed analyses of land use and emissions data together with extensive discussion of a wide range of effects based on literature analysis. •2. Study objectivesThis study was conducted for the UK Government's Committee on Climate Change (CCC) to examine if UK agriculture can support consumption change away from carbon- intensive food products. For the purposes of the consumption scenarios, it is assumed the relationships between imports, exports and domestic consumption remain constant for each of the commodities used by the UK food system. The following questions were addressed: 1. Land needs: Given land quality considerations (e.g. land capability and constraints), to what extent is it possible to support a change in the UK consumption of meat and dairy products with a corresponding increase in substitute goods from UK agricultural land? Can a reduction in meat and dairy product consumption release land for other purposes? To what use would this freed-up land be suitable (e.g. food production, biomass production, carbon sequestration, other ecosystem service provision, forestry, etc.)? 2. Greenhouse gas emissions: What are the implications of the transition in production for GHGs both in the UK and abroad (including soil carbon releases, sequestration, reduced production of feed, etc, as well as reductions in direct N2O and CH4 emissions? 3. Other effects: What are the other implications, including for water, other pollutants, farm incomes, availability of manure as a fertiliser input, public health, ecosystem services, biodiversity, and animal welfare? 4. International implications: If UK agricultural land cannot support consumption changes, what are the international implications in terms of agricultural production and land-use displacement (e.g. deforestation, land for biofuels, land for food), and GHGs?•3. MethodsWe developed and used a combination of consumption and production scenarios to examine potential consequences of change. Life-cycle assessment (mainly life cycle inventory analysis) was applied to these scenarios to examine the overall effects of the consumption change on GHG and other emissions from primary production, in the UK and overseas. The production under the various scenarios was allocated to agricultural land resources by a combination of survey-based data analysis and model-derived calculations. Land use change (LUC) emissions (from changing soil C and biomass stocks) were calculated from data in the UK national inventory as well as from the UK Renewable Fuel Agency for overseas land types. Commodity flows as affected by consumption were calculated from FAOSTAT and Defra data. The resulting emissions were allocated to the various inventories in which they are registered, e.g. the UK's GHG inventories for agriculture, LUC, energy use and industry, together with those from overseas that are made up by components from our UK consumption of food and drink. Scientific literature relevant to the wider assessment of these scenarios was analysed (and an ecosystems services method was applied) to enable a qualitative assessment to complement the quantitative analysis. ScenariosWe designed a range of consumption and production scenarios to examine options on both the demand and supply sides. These comprise three consumption and three production scenarios. The consumption scenarios are as follows: Consumption Scenario 1. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption balanced by increases in plant commodities. Consumption Scenario 2. A shift from red meat (beef and lamb) to white meat (pork and poultry). Red meat consumption is reduced by 75%. Consumption Scenario 3. A 50% reduction in white meat consumption balanced by increases in plant commodities. It must be stressed that the nature of scenarios is such that they contain a variety of assumptions about possible future demands and supplies of agricultural commodities. The scenarios are not forecasts. The focus has been on the technical capacity of land and agricultural production, not on the market changes needed to enable change. It should be noted that the balance of supply from the UK and overseas is assumed to remain as it is now. The 50% reduction in livestock products was not applied uniformly across these commodities. Under the reduction scenario (Consumption scenario 1), consumption of milk and eggs is 60% of current consumption, and meat consumption is 36% of current consumption. Sugar consumption is also reduced to align with healthy eating guidelines. Reduction in consumption of livestock products is balanced by increasing plant consumption on the basis of constant food energy supplied. Fruit and vegetable consumption was increased by 50% and basic carbohydrate (e.g. cereals, potatoes) and oil rich commodities (except palm oil) by 33%. Substitution was estimated on the basis of food energy use at the commodity level using FAOSTAT data. Expert opinion was obtained in relation to the viability of consumption change under Scenario 1. This indicated that diets at the consumer level under this scenario are viable from a nutritional viewpoint. It was also noted that Consumption Scenario 1 aligns with healthy eating guidelines in other countries. The production scenarios are focused on the intensity of use of different types of land. The result is a difference in the quantity and type of land ‘released' from production from change that reduces land needs. The production scenarios are: Production Scenario 1. Uniform land release - ‘pro-rata' changes in land requirements across land types. Production Scenario 2. Maximise release of tillable land - ruminant meat production concentrated on lower quality land. Production Scenario 3. Maximise release of low quality land - ruminant meat production concentrated on high quality land. The combination of consumption scenarios 1 and 2 and three production scenarios gives a total of 6 system scenarios. These are complemented by Consumption Scenario 3 giving a total of 7. •4. ResultsLand needsAll consumption change scenarios reduce the total amount of land estimated as required to support the UK food system. A switch from red to white meat increases the need for overseas arable land, although a larger area of UK land that can be tilled is released. Under a reduction scenario, the amount of extra land required for the direct consumption of plant products is less than the amount of arable land released from livestock feed production. The net effect on total overseas arable land needs is a reduction of about 311,000 ha and a net release of about 265,000 ha arable land in the UK. The need for grassland is greatly reduced. The release of grassland with some arable potential ranges between 1.6 to 3.7 million ha depending on where remaining production is concentrated. The release of grassland with no arable potential ranges from 0.7 to 6.9 million ha. Under a reduction scenario, concentrating remaining production on better quality land would almost entirely eliminate sheep and beef production for the UK from the hills, most uplands and less productive lowland areas. Under Consumption Scenario 2 (a shift from beef and sheepmeat to white meat from pigs and poultry), the diet needs of pigs and poultry result in a net increase in demand for overseas grown crops, although considerably more potentially arable land is released in the UK. More arable cropping is needed both in the UK (an additional 55,000 ha) and to a much greater extent overseas (about an additional 466,000 ha), driven largely by soy. However, the release of arable quality grassland in the UK exceeds the increase in overseas arable landed needed for producing this feed. The result is a net release of between 1.6 and 2.9million ha potentially arable land in the UK plus the release of 1.3 to 6.6 millionha of land suitable only for grassland. Under Consumption Scenario 3 (a 50% reduction in white meat consumption balanced by an increase in plant products) the changes are much less complex with no changes in grassland needs. Increases in demand for arable land for direct human consumption amounted to about 154,000 and 172,000 ha (domestic and overseas respectively), but these are more than compensated for by the release of arable land from feed production (341,000 and 668,000ha domestic and overseas respectively). Focusing a reduced cattle and sheep industry on non- arable land would result in the release of substantially more tillable land (currently grassland). In a 50% livestock production consumption reduction scenario, maximising the use of lower grade land (semi-natural grassland, hill land etc.) releases 3.7 million of tillable grassland (including 1.3million ha of good arable land). The opposite approach of withdrawing production from less capable land releases just 1.7 millionha of potentially arable land, with almost no release of the grassland well suited for to arable production. The land-use trade-off is therefore clear. Under a 50% livestock consumption reduction scenario, 2 million ha of tillable grassland is required to compensate for the withdrawal of cattle and sheep production from 6.9 million ha of non-tillable grassland. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption opens up the opportunity to release about half of UK land currently used for UK food supplies if remaining production is concentrated on the more capable land. If land is released uniformly, almost two-thirds of this release takes place on grassland not suited to arable production and the remaining third is grassland with some arable potential. There would be with higher levels of land release in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland than in England. Depending on where the remaining production takes place, a large proportion of land released may be very unproductive, but it can be assumed that about 5 million ha with potential for other agricultural uses would be available, for example for the production of livestock for export (if they did not reduce their livestock consumption), for producing arable biofuel crops, planted woodland and re-wilding (to natural woodland in many cases). Greenhouse gas emissionsAll consumption scenarios reduce greenhouse gas emissions from primary production. The largest reduction is from a livestock reduction scenario (Consumption Scenario 1): from 81 to 66MtCO2e (19% reduction). The switch from red to white meat reduces emissions by 9% and a 50% reduction in white meat consumption by only 3%. The net effect on emissions depends greatly on the alternative use of the grassland released from food production. The study indicates the range of possible consequences on soil and biomass fluxes. If all tillable grassland released from food production was converted to arable use, 8 to 17MtCO2e per year would be released over 20 years through the effects of land use change. Converting all released land with the potential to support good tree growth to woodland would cause a net carbon uptake equivalent to about 7.5 to 9.5MtCO2e per year in soil and wood per year over 20 years. Land use preference (e.g. focusing remaining production on high quality land) has little effect on emissions. This is an important result indicating that supply chain emissions are unresponsive to changes in industry structure with respect to the land used. The location of emissions reductions (UK or overseas) was identified. Currently, we estimate that 36% of primary production emissions are overseas. All scenarios reduce UK emissions while Consumption Scenario 1 has little effect on overseas emissions and Consumption Scenario 2 reduces overseas emissions by 5%. None of the scenarios involve a net export of emissions and the GHG reduction benefits in the UK are proportionally greater than those overseas because of the tight link between UK livestock consumption and production. OTHER EFFECTS Other emissions All consumption scenarios are expected to reduce other emissions. Consumption Scenario 1 halves ammonia emissions. Reductions in nitrate emissions, eutrophication emissions generally, and acidification are almost as large (ca 45%). Biodiversity and carbon sequestration It is widely asserted that grassland, especially semi- natural grassland, has a higher biodiversity value compared with other types of vegetation, natural climax vegetation for example. It is often claimed that the retention of these grasslands is important for the continued delivery of some ecosystem services, for example, carbon sequestration. In many other European countries, the uplands and hills are usually wooded. For example, 32% and 29% of the land area in Germany and France respectively are wooded compared with 12% in the UK. Thus conversion to climax woodland or other forms of forestry is one obvious alternative use for released grassland. Our study has identified benefits for carbon sequestration in soil when grassland is converted to woodland (there should also be potential benefits in the use of harvested wood). Our analysis of land use statistics reveals the large proportion of UK land currently occupied by cattle and sheep. Without these livestock, this grassland (much of which is semi-natural grassland) would revert to the natural vegetation - deciduous woodland in many cases. Our results show that the use of livestock to retain semi-natural grasslands is not dependent on the current high level of livestock product consumption. A 50% reduction in demand still leaves a market which is large enough to support this activity. However, given how a declining market affects all suppliers, a livestock reduction scenario presents special challenges to the maintenance of semi-natural grasslands. Livestock systems provide a wide range of services that are currently used by society. In a reduction scenario, rural areas lose skills and employment in the livestock sector and there would be ramifications for linked industries such as the meat processing or veterinary sectors. Culturally important features, for example, hedgerows and stone walls, and much of the fauna and flora associated with grassland would be no longer needed. In the UK as a whole, land that is most likely to be taken out of production is associated with difficult production conditions. In England, upland moorland and common land now in a semi-natural state could change to fully natural vegetation cover. In upland areas, where the majority of re-wilding under Consumption Scenario 1 and 2 would be located, evidence suggests that various natural communities including scrub, bracken, bramble, and woodland with their own assemblage of flora and fauna are likely to develop, with potential increases in wild herbivores such as deer, hares, and rabbits. The majority of SSSIs currently under-grazed occur in lowland areas, for example in southern and eastern parts of England, and a lack of livestock results in difficulty in applying the grazing pressure required to maintain the semi-natural faunal and floral diversity. Recreational access to the uplands, which is now facilitated by open grassland landscapes, may be impaired and evidence suggests that visitors view the loss of traditional semi-natural landscapes, with associated meadows, hedges, and stone walls, negatively. Whilst a reduction in the current ecosystem service provision associated with livestock production from cattle and sheep can be expected under Consumption Scenarios 1 and 2, the net change is also dependent on the alternative use to which land is put. In upland SSSIs, overgrazing is often problematic and reducing grazing pressure may allow semi-natural habitats to recover, in particular dwarf shrub heaths, bogs, acid grassland and upland habitats. The release of large areas of land could also be used to diversify upland areas. For example, semi-natural upland woodlands have declined by 30-40% since the 1950s and the UK Habitat Action Plan has therefore included a target to increase the area of upland oak woodland through planting or natural regeneration of current open ground. In the lowlands, approximately 10% of the current arable land could be released for other activities, such as bioenergy crops, woodlands, recreational land, wetland creation, nature reserves, flood protection, carbon sequestration, and urban development. Each of these land uses will have its own specific range and flow of ecosystem services associated with it. While in general, the release of agricultural land with high environmental value from food production is not viewed as positive, Defra has concluded that there are likely to be situations where positive outcomes can occur. Economic considerations The reduction in the amount of land needed to supply the UK goes hand-in-hand with a reduction in the value added by agriculture supplying UK consumed food. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption (Consumption Scenario 1) reduces the UK farm-gate value of livestock products from £7.6 to 3.5 billion. The farm-level economic impact of a change along these lines will depend crucially on what replacement output is found for the land released and on market effects that are beyond the scope of this study. One economic response scenario is that the land resource released remains in agriculture serving export markets. Another strategy is to use the land for non-food purposes. Using biomass energy cropping as a benchmark and assuming a price of £40/tonne dry matter biomass wood, we estimate that replacing the value of the food output of higher quality land released will be challenging, although it is reported that biomass energy is an economically viable alternative to sheep production on uplands.[1] Potential unexpected or unintended consequences Changes to UK crop production The general conclusion that a reduction in livestock production consumption will have little effect in total arable land requirements masks some important regional effects. This scenario will reduce arable crop production for livestock feed and increase arable production for direct human consumption, including a 50% increase in fruit and vegetables. The increase of 0.6 million ha of UK crops for human consumption includes an increase of about 0.2 million ha in potatoes, field vegetables and fruit. Research indicates that agricultural change driven by healthy eating recommendations will result in expansion of production of these crops particularly in the south and east of England.[2] Many of these crops are irrigated and some are protected using for example poly-tunnels. Whilst the change in land use is small in absolute terms, the local effects on water resources and landscape could be significant. It should be noted however that the increase in fresh fruit and vegetable consumption in these scenarios arise from the full implementation of current UK healthy eating guidelines (‘five-a- day') and are not just a consequence reduced livestock product consumption. Potential unexpected or unintended consequencesUneven distribution of economic effects The effect of a contraction in the value of farm output for UK markets will be unevenly distributed. There will be many losers, but also some winners. Given regional land quality characteristics, almost all Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish farmers would be affected by output contraction counterbalanced by output growth in the south and east of England. Effects on overseas land use The reduction in livestock product consumption will have little effect overall on net overseas land needs. Release of land in South America and the USA used for animal feed, especially soy, will be counter-balanced by increases in a wide range of crops elsewhere. The consumption changes also reduce the need for overseas grassland. This affects three countries in particular: Ireland (dairy products, beef), New Zealand (butter and lamb), and South America (beef). The effect on Brazil is now small as imports have dwindled in recent years but the change would close off the UK as a growth market for Brazilian beef in the longer term. The effects on Ireland are particularly significant. •5. ConclusionThis study has clearly shown that UK land can support consumption change that reduces greenhouse gas emissions from the food system. The reduction in land needed to supply the UK that comes with a reduction in livestock product consumption brings potential environmental benefits and significant opportunities to deliver other products, including other ecosystem services, from UK agricultural land. The study has shown that some risks currently argued as arising from consumption change are small. In particular the study shows that arable land needs will not increase if the consumption of livestock products is decreased. The risk that emissions will be exported is also shown to be small. The identification of the significant potential benefits of consumption change combined with the low risks of unintended consequences has far-reaching implications for guidance to consumers and the development of agricultural policy. The results are broadly applicable to other European countries which means they are relevant to international policy development, for example the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. [1] Heaton, R.J., Randerson, P.F., Slater, F.M. 1999. The economics of growing short rotation coppice in the uplands of mid-Wales and an economic comparison with sheep production. Biomass and Bioenergy 17: 59-71. [2] Jones, P.J. and Tranter, R.B. 2007. Modelling the impact of different policy scenarios on farm business management, land use and rural employment Project Document No. 13. Implications of a nutrition driven food policy for land use and the Rural Environment. Work package No
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    A framework for integrating flood defence and biodiversity in washlands in England
    (Jrbm, 2005-01-01T00:00:00Z) Morris, Joe; Hess, Tim M.
    Concerns about increased flood risk and loss of biodiversity in lowland areas, coupled with changing priorities in the countryside have drawn attention to the potential contribution that managed washlands can make to improved flood management, habitats and wildlife. Following a review of research literature, a survey of flood managers and conservation officers, and an evaluation of selected case sites in England, a framework to help integrate potential flood management and biodiversity opportunities was constructed. This framework consists of three components, namely: a Hydraulic classification which categorises washlands according to degree of hydraulic control; a Habitat classification which captures attributes of washland hydrology that define the type of existing or potential habitats; and, a Menu of Interventions to “engineer” or manage particular flooding and soil wetness regimes and thereby better exploit habitat potential. Washlands were also categorised by main type of benefit whether this is flood management, conservation, or in the case of integratedwashland, a balance of the two. The advantages of alternative administrative and funding arrangements for washlands, whether land acquisition or annual payment to existing land owners, were also explored. It was concluded that the classification of washland flooding and water level regimes can help to define habitat potential. It can also help to guide hydraulic engineering and management actions that can be taken to realise this potential. Although there is potential synergy between flooding and biodiversity under some flood regimes, biodiversity benefits mainly depend on the management of water regimes following flood events. There is a clear need to “join up” hitherto fragmente
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    Identifying future risks to UK agricultural crop production: Putting climate change in context
    (Ip Publishing, 2010-12-01T00:00:00Z) Knox, Jerry W.; Morris, Joe; Hess, Tim M.
    Internationally, agriculture is widely regarded as one of the sectors at most risk from a changing climate. This is due to the impact of increased temperatures, reduced rainfall and increased frequency of extreme events, not only in the tropics but also in temperate environments. In the UK, growers also face a range of 'non-climate' risks, which, it is often argued, present a potentially greater and more immediate threat to sustainable food production than climate change. This paper highlights the climate and non-climate impacts on crop production, the adaptation options and the institutional and regulatory barriers to their uptake by farmers. It concludes that there are likely to be both positive impacts (for example, yield gains) and negative impacts (for example, increased water stress). Either way, there will be a need for new investments in adaptive management and technology, including new collaborations between the public and private sectors, to enable UK agriculture to respond to the potential effects of climate change
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    Identifying trade-offs and reconciling competing demands for water - integrating agriculture into a robust decision-making framework
    (Wiley, 2018-02-26) Knox, Jerry W.; Haro Monteagudo, David; Hess, Tim M.; Morris, Joe
    Increasing demands for water, driven by population growth and socio‐economic development, environmental regulations and future climate uncertainty, are highlighting limitations on water supplies. This water‐energy‐food‐environment nexus is not confined to semi‐arid regions but is emerging as a key business, societal and economic risk in humid and temperate countries, where abundant water supplies and regulation have historically coped with fluctuating demands between industry, power generation, agriculture, domestic supply and the environment. In the UK, irrigation is supplemental to rainfall, consumptive in use and concentrated in the driest years and most resource‐stressed catchments. This paper describes an empirical application of a mixed methods approach to integrate agriculture into a robust decision‐making framework, focusing on a water‐stressed region in England. The approach shows that competing demands between sectors can be reconciled and that potential options or portfolios compatible with multi‐sectoral collaboration and investment can be identified. By combining model outputs to forecast the impacts of climate and socio‐economic change on agricultural demand within a regional water resource simulator, future spatial estimates of demand were derived. A set of search and tracked metrics were used to drive multi‐criteria searches to identify preferred supply and demand management orientated portfolios. The methodological challenges in forecasting agricultural demand, defining acceptable ‘trade‐offs’, managing scale and uncertainty issues and the importance of engendering open dialogue between stakeholders is described. The study provides valuable insights for countries where similar emergent issues regarding conflicts over water demand exist.
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    The impact of the EU water framework directive on irrigated agriculture in England
    (2005-01) Freeman, David; Morris, Joe
    Irrigation in the England is a small but strategically important sector. It makes a significant contribution to agricultural GDP allowing the production of specialised crops with the ability to maintain and maximise both yield and quality. It is this demand for reliable, quality supplies of produce that drives the demand for irrigation water and is likely to increase in future. In some areas of East Anglia irrigation can account for up to 70% of water abstraction in the region during peak demand. Concerns over environmental quality combined with increasing pressures on scarce water resources have prompted the introduction of new regulation and tighter controls on resource distribution. The introduction of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) into European legislation aims to facilitate better water management and to improve quality of the water environment. Irrigation farming can lead to problems of water quantity and water quality as a result of abstraction and agrochemical discharges. This study aims to identify the mam irrigation farming systems in England; to determine the characteristics and performance of irrigation farming systems; to , evaluate the impacts of alternative policy measures on these systems and to determine possible coping strategies that could be adopted. Three case study farms have been used to develop a linear programming (LP) model to enable the assessment of alternative policy measures. ;Measures aimed at encouraging efficient use of water arid reduction in agrochemical discharges have been modelled in the LP and the· effect of these policy changes on the sustainability of farms investigated with respect to economic, social and environmental objectives. The study confirmed the links between irrigated agriculture, WFD and water resource and quality issues. The study indicated that the implementation of policy measure as a result of the WFD are likely to affect the sustainability of irrigated agriculture. The use of abstraction license restrictions and abstraction charge increases facilitated reductions in the use of water. Reduction in water/use availability led to reduced areas of irrigated cropping. Reductions in the areas of cropping are closely linked with the returns to water gained for each specific crop. Under water abstraction charge increases, reductions in water use were dependant upon the value of water to the crop, under high net margins the value of water was high and large areas of irrigated cropping remained in the system. This value could be up to £9.00m3 for strawberries and in the region of £1.00 -£2.00m3 for potatoes and vegetables. The inelastic nature of demand for irrigation water leads to a transfer of income from farmers to the regulatory body. General trends showed that the profits -to farms could be significantly reduced with the loss of irrigated crops. Labour requirements were also reduced significaantly with reductions in the areas of irrigated land. Environmental performance improved under reduced irrigation, confirming the high potential for pollution to occur under the irrigated crops with high levels of agrochemical inputs. Controls on the agrochemical losses impacted upon- the areas of land under production. The cropping pattern switched to the most profitable crops with the highest returns per unit of agrochemical loss. Irrigated crops became dominant within the cropping pattern. Areas of land were taken out of production in order to allow the maximisation of areas of irrigated cropping while allowing the farm unit to remain within the limits of agrochemical loss to the environment. Coping strategies were identified namely; the use of winter abstraction combined with a storage reservoir and the use of trickle irrigation as a more efficient method of application, their use was validated under licence restrictions and abstraction charge increases. Trickle irrigation and winter water strorage have been confirmed as being viable options in extending irrigation. The study identifies priorities for future research, including:- • Expansion of the examination of coping strategies, (this may include work on deficit irrigation), • Agrochemical use~ and possible yield and quality responses to reduced inputs, • Development of more complex models including the use of a greater range of cropping options and coping strategies, with the possibility of incorporating reduced input options and agri-environmental land use.