Browsing by Author "Momblanch, Andrea"
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Item Open Access Adaptation by Himalayan water resource system under a sustainable socioeconomic pathway in a high-emission context(ASCE, 2021-01-13) Dau, Quan V.; Momblanch, Andrea; Adeloye, Adebayo J.Climate change in the Indian Himalayan region is being manifested in the loss of glaciers and altered patterns of monsoon rainfall. Simultaneously, rapid population growth together with economic development are increasing sectoral water demands and changing land use patterns. This study investigated the impact of this complex interplay on water resources in the Beas-Sutlej water resources system. The GFDL-CM3 model was used to describe RCP8.5 future meteorological conditions throughout the 21st century. Population and land use changes were projected under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-1 (SSP1). The water evaluation and planning (WEAP) system was applied for assessing sectoral water demands. The results showed increasing runoff during the premonsoon and monsoon seasons due to increased glaciers melting and more rainfall, respectively. It also emerged that irrigation water demand decreased moderately in Punjab (8%–13%) and Haryana (1%–9%); however, the situation was reversed in Rajasthan where it increased by 14%. Adaptation strategies were proposed including increased water allocation to Rajasthan and converting lands to cultivating more staple crops in Punjab and HaryanaItem Open Access Bias correction of high-resolution regional climate model precipitation output gives the best estimates of precipitation in Himalayan catchments(American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2019-12-14) Bannister, Daniel; Orr, Andrew; Jain, Sanjay K.; Holman, Ian P.; Momblanch, Andrea; Phillips, Tony; Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Snapir, Boris; Waine, Toby W.; Hosking, J. Scott; Allen‐Sader, ClareThe need to provide accurate estimates of precipitation over catchments in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalaya mountain ranges for hydrological and water resource systems assessments is widely recognised, as is identifying precipitation extremes for assessing hydro‐meteorological hazards. Here, we investigate the ability of bias‐corrected Weather Research and Forecasting model output at 5 km grid spacing to reproduce the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation for the Beas and Sutlej river basins in the Himalaya, measured by 44 stations spread over the period 1980 to 2012. For the Sutlej basin, we find that the raw (uncorrected) model output generally underestimated annual, monthly, and (particularly low‐intensity) daily precipitation amounts. For the Beas basin, the model performance was better, although biases still existed. It is speculated that the cause of the dry bias over the Sutlej basin is a failure of the model to represent an early‐morning maximum in precipitation during the monsoon period, which is related to excessive precipitation falling upwind. However, applying a non‐linear bias‐correction method to the model output resulted in much better results, which were superior to precipitation estimates from reanalysis and two gridded datasets. These findings highlight the difficulty in using current gridded datasets as input for hydrological modelling in Himalayan catchments, suggesting that bias‐corrected high‐resolution regional climate model output is in fact necessary. Moreover, precipitation extremes over the Beas and Sutlej basins were considerably under‐represented in the gridded datasets, suggesting that bias‐corrected regional climate model output is also necessary for hydro‐meteorological risk assessments in Himalayan catchments.Item Open Access Current practice and recommendations for modelling global change impacts on water resource in the Himalayas(MDPI, 2019-06-24) Momblanch, Andrea; Holman, Ian P.; Jain, Sanjay K.Global change is expected to have a strong impact in the Himalayan region. The climatic and orographic conditions result in unique modelling challenges and requirements. This paper critically appraises recent hydrological modelling applications in Himalayan river basins, focusing on their utility to analyse the impacts of future climate and socio-economic changes on water resource availability in the region. Results show that the latter are only represented by land use change. Distributed, process-based hydrological models coupled with temperature-index melt models are predominant. The choice of spatial discretisation is critical for model performance due to the strong influence of elevation on meteorological variables and snow/ice accumulation and melt. However, the sparsity and limited reliability of point weather data, and the biases and low resolution of gridded datasets, hinder the representation of the meteorological complexity. These data limitations often limit the selection of models and the quality of the outputs by forcing the exclusion of processes that are significant to the local hydrology. The absence of observations for water stores and fluxes other than river flows prevents multi-variable calibration and increases the risk of equifinality. The uncertainties arising from these limitations are amplified in climate change analyses and, thus, systematic assessment of uncertainty propagation is required. Based on these insights, transferable recommendations are made on directions for future data collection and model applications that may enhance realism within models and advance the ability of global change impact assessments to inform adaptation planning in this globally important region.Item Open Access Enhancing production and flow of freshwater ecosystem services in a managed Himalayan river system under uncertain future climate(Springer, 2020-08-29) Momblanch, Andrea; Beevers, Lindsay; Srinivasalu, Pradeep; Kulkarni, Anil; Holman, Ian P.Future climate change will likely impact the multiple freshwater Ecosystem Services (fES) provided by catchments through their landscapes and river systems. However, there is high spatio-temporal uncertainty on those impacts linked to climate change uncertainty and the natural and anthropogenic interdependencies of water management systems. This study identifies current and future spatial patterns of fES production in a highly managed water resource system in northern India to inform the design and assessment of plausible adaptation measures to enhance fES production in the catchment under uncertain climate change. A water resource systems modelling approach is used to evaluate fES across the full range of plausible future scenarios, to identify the (worst-case) climate change scenarios triggering the greatest impacts and assess the capacity of adaptation to enhance fES. Results indicate that the current and future states of the fES depend on the spatial patterns of climate change and the impacts of infrastructure management on river flows. Natural zones deliver more regulating and cultural services than anthropized areas, although they are more climate sensitive. The implementation of a plausible adaptation strategy only manages to slightly enhance fES in the system with respect to no-adaptation. These results demonstrate that water resource systems models are powerful tools to capture complex system dependencies and inform the design of robust catchment management measures. They also highlight that mitigation and more ambitious adaptation strategies are needed to offset climate change impacts in highly climate sensitive catchmentsItem Open Access Erosion and sediment transport modelling to inform payment for ecosystem services schemes(Springer, 2020-07-30) Benisiewicz, Barbara; Momblanch, Andrea; Leggatt, Alister; Holman, Ian P.Erosion and the impacts of the redistribution of sediment are a serious threat to the quality of water resources. They cause losses and/or additional expenses in many areas, such as water treatment, biodiversity or fisheries. The implementation of catchment management measures, aimed at preventing the transfer of sediment to rivers, can be a cost-beneficial way to address the problem. In order to select the measures and appropriate locations for erosion control, the spatially distributed soil erosion and sediment delivery model WaTEM-SEDEM was used. The model was calibrated against total suspended solids data at the outlet of the Wey catchment, South-east England, yielding satisfactory results. Different scenarios of catchment management were modelled to reduce the amount of sediment transported to the river. Scenarios introducing 24 retention ponds, 50-m-wide buffer strips and cover crops in areas with the largest erosion and sediment delivery were tested. The largest decrease in both sediment production and sediment export was obtained using cover crops, with reductions of 13.4% and 14.1%, respectively. A cost-benefit analysis considering multiple ecosystem services (e.g. control of erosion rates, attenuation of mass flow, pest control, wildlife and its outputs) identified the cover crops as the most cost-beneficial measure and a possible funding scheme based on payments for ecosystem services was developed as a way to enable its implementation.Item Open Access Evaluating the impacts of agricultural development and climate change on the water-energy nexus in Santa Elena (Ecuador)(Elsevier, 2023-12-22) Chengot, Rishma; Zylberman, Raphael; Momblanch, Andrea; Salazar, Oswaldo Viteri; Hess, Tim; Knox, Jerry W.; Rey, DoloresA combination of a changing global climate coupled with rapid socio-economic development is putting unprecedented pressure on water, energy, and food resources. Addressing these issues within a nexus approach can help to identify appropriate management practices and strategic policies to ensure natural resources are used more sustainably thus avoiding exacerbating issues of water scarcity and food insecurity. In this study, we used an integrated water resource planning and irrigation model (WEAP) to assess emerging water-energy nexus issues on the Santa Elena peninsula in Ecuador. Simulated water demands showed that current water resources availability is insufficient to meet full irrigation requirements, especially during the dry season. Annual average energy demand for water conveyance in the SEP was significantly higher than for irrigation with 94.5 GWh and 13.5 GWh being used, respectively. Future challenges associated with changes in agricultural irrigation and urban demands within the SEP were evaluated using scenario analysis. This included considering various scenarios such as agricultural expansion, climate change, population growth, and a shift to export-oriented agriculture. The study underscores the significance of nexus thinking in guiding policy and decision-making in Santa Elena, although the limited data prevents its use in an operational framework. The benefits of adopting an integrated modelling approach to analyse water and energy nexus trade-offs are also discussed.Item Open Access Exploring future global change induced water imbalances in the Central Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia(Springer, 2021-02-17) Musie, Mulugeta; Momblanch, Andrea; Sen, SumitLake Ziway, the only freshwater lake in Ethiopia's Central Rift Valley basin, has been the source for irrigation, floriculture, fish farming, and domestic water supply in the region for the last few decades. This study examined the impacts of the planned future agricultural developments and climate change on the lake water balance by an integrated application of the Soil Water Assessment Tool and Water Evaluation and Planning models. The future projections of precipitation and temperature from the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX-AFRICA, under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 were used for the climate change impact assessment. Nine irrigation development and climate change scenarios were developed and simulated to examine the separate and combined impacts on the lake water balance and supply coverages. The study showed that the planned future agricultural developments could result in a mean annual lake water level decline by about 0.15 m, with a considerable reduction (27% to 32%) in the outflow to the downstream Bulbula River. Climate change could increase evaporation losses from the shallow lake resulting in a drastic decrease in the lake water level, especially during the dry season. It could also significantly reduce (by about 74%) the amount of water flowing out of the lake. The combined impacts of future development and climate change are likely to reduce the supply coverages of most of the competing demands. Approaches need to be studied to minimize the lake water evaporation losses and explore water demand/supply management optionItem Open Access Exploring trade-offs between SDGs for Indus River Dolphin conservation and human water security in the regulated Beas River, India(Springer, 2021-10-11) Momblanch, Andrea; Kelkar, Nachiket; Braulik, Gill; Krishnaswamy, Jagdish; Holman, Ian P.In India’s Indo-Gangetic plains, river flows are strongly altered by dams, barrages and water diversions for irrigation, urban supply, hydropower production and flood control. Human demands for freshwater are likely to intensify with climatic and socio-economic changes, exacerbating trade-offs between different sustainable development goals (SDGs) dependent on freshwater (e.g. SDG2, SDG6, SDG7, SDG11 and SDG15). Freshwater ecosystems and endangered aquatic species are not explicitly addressed in the SDGs, but only nested as targets within SDG6 and SDG15. Thus, there is high risk that decisions to advance other SDGs may overlook impacts on them. In this study, we link a water resource systems model and a forecast extinction risk model to analyze how alternative conservation strategies in the regulated Beas River (India) affect the likelihood of survival of the only remaining population of endangered Indus River Dolphins (IRD) in India in the face of climate change-induced impacts on river hydrology and human water demands, explicitly accounting for potential trade-offs between related SDGs. We find that the frequency of low flow released from the main reservoir may increase under some climate change scenarios, significantly affecting the IRD population. The strongest trade-offs exist between the persistence of IRD, urban water supply and hydropower generation. The establishment of ecologically informed reservoir releases combined with IRD population supplementation enhances the probability of survival of the IRD and is compatible with improving the status of relevant SDGs. This will require water managers, conservation scientists, and other stakeholders to continue collaborating to develop holistic water management strategies.Item Open Access Integrating glacier flow in hydrological modelling for water resources management(EGU: European Geophysical Union, 2022-05-27) Momblanch, Andrea; Shirsat, Tejal; Kulkarni, Anil; Holman, Ian P.The climate emergency will drive changes in the cryosphere and hydrology of high mountain catchments, with subsequent influences on water resources availability. Process-based hydrological and glaciological models require significant amounts of data which are often unavailable in high mountainous catchments, especially in developing countries, and are unable to explicitly integrate human-induced factors on river flows (Momblanch et al. 2019). This can be overcome by water resources systems models that take a more conceptual approach. However, they currently have limited capability to represent glacier evolution and thus river discharge dynamics, especially in long-term simulations required for climate change impact and adaptation analysis. There is, therefore, a clear need for improved representation of the spatio-temporal response of glaciers within water resources systems models to support the strategic water resources planning and management and ensure future water security.Item Open Access Knowledge priorities on climate change and water in the Upper Indus Basin: a horizon scanning exercise to identify the top 100 research questions in social and natural sciences(Wiley: American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2022-03-24) Orr, Andrew; Ahmad, Bashir; Alam, Undala; Appadurai, Arivudai Nambi; Bharucha, Zareen P.; Biemans, Hester; Bolch, Tobias; Chaulagain, Narayan P.; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Dimri, A. P.; Dixon, Harry; Fowler, Hayley J.; Gioli, Giovanna; Halvorson, Sarah J.; Hussain, Abid; Jeelani, Ghulam; Kamal, Simi; Khalid, Imran S.; Liu, Shiyin; Lutz, Arthur; Mehra, Meeta K.; Miles, Evan; Momblanch, Andrea; et al.,River systems originating from the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) are dominated by runoff from snow and glacier melt and summer monsoonal rainfall. These water resources are highly stressed as huge populations of people living in this region depend on them, including for agriculture, domestic use, and energy production. Projections suggest that the UIB region will be affected by considerable (yet poorly quantified) changes to the seasonality and composition of runoff in the future, which are likely to have considerable impacts on these supplies. Given how directly and indirectly communities and ecosystems are dependent on these resources and the growing pressure on them due to ever-increasing demands, the impacts of climate change pose considerable adaptation challenges. The strong linkages between hydroclimate, cryosphere, water resources, and human activities within the UIB suggest that a multi- and inter-disciplinary research approach integrating the social and natural/environmental sciences is critical for successful adaptation to ongoing and future hydrological and climate change. Here we use a horizon scanning technique to identify the Top 100 questions related to the most pressing knowledge gaps and research priorities in social and natural sciences on climate change and water in the UIB. These questions are on the margins of current thinking and investigation and are clustered into 14 themes, covering three overarching topics of “governance, policy, and sustainable solutions”, “socioeconomic processes and livelihoods”, and “integrated Earth System processes”. Raising awareness of these cutting-edge knowledge gaps and opportunities will hopefully encourage researchers, funding bodies, practitioners, and policy makers to address them.Item Open Access A method for monthly mapping of wet and dry snow using Sentinel-1 and MODIS: Application to a Himalayan river basin(Elsevier, 2018-10-01) Snapir, Boris; Momblanch, Andrea; Jain, Sanjay K.; Waine, Toby; Holman, Ian P.Satellite Remote Sensing, with both optical and SAR instruments, can provide distributed observations of snow cover over extended and inaccessible areas. Both instruments are complementary, but there have been limited attempts at combining their measurements. We describe a novel approach to produce monthly maps of dry and wet snow areas through application of data fusion techniques to MODIS fractional snow cover and Sentinel-1 wet snow mask, facilitated by Google Earth Engine. The method is demonstrated in a 55,000 km2 river basin in the Indian Himalayan region over a period of ∼2.5 years, although it can be applied to any areas of the world where Sentinel-1 data are routinely available. The typical underestimation of wet snow area by SAR is corrected using a digital elevation model to estimate the average melting altitude. We also present an empirical model to derive the fractional cover of wet snow from Sentinel-1. Finally, we demonstrate that Sentinel-1 effectively complements MODIS as it highlights a snowmelt phase which occurs with a decrease in snow depth but no/little decrease in snowpack area. Further developments are now needed to incorporate these high resolution observations of snow areas as inputs to hydrological models for better runoff analysis and improved management of water resources and flood risk.Item Open Access No-regret adaptation to climate change through management of glacial lakes in the Santa River Basin in Peru(EGU: European Geophysical Union, 2021-04-30) Celmi, Gladis; Momblanch, Andrea; Hess, Tim; Fyffe, Catriona L.; Potter, Emily; Orr, Andrew; Drenkhan, Fabian; Walker-Crawford, Noah; Loarte, Edwin; Gracia Bustamante, Maria; Pellicciotti, FrancescaItem Open Access Potential impacts of warming climate on future water resources and hydropower production in a glacierized catchment in Western Himalaya(EGU: European Geophysical Union, 2021-04-30) Shirsat, Tejal; Kulkarni, Anil; Momblanch, Andrea; Randhawa, Surjeet Singh; Holman, Ian P.Item Open Access The riverine bioreactor: an integrative perspective on biological decomposition of organic matter across riverine habitats(Elsevier, 2021-02-01) Peralta-Maraver, Ignacio; Stubbington, Rachel; Arnon, Shai; Kratina, Pavel; Krause, Stefan; Mello Cionek, Vivian de; Leite, Nei Kavaguichi; Lemes da Silva, Aurea Luiza; Thomazi, Sidinei Magela; Posselt, Malte; Milner, Victoria Susan; Momblanch, Andrea; Moretti, Marcelo S.; Nóbrega, Rodolfo L. B.; Perkins, Daniel M.; Petrucio, Mauricio M.; Reche, Isabel; Saito, Victor; Sarmento, Hugo; Strange, Emily; Taniwaki, Ricardo Hideo; White, James C.; Alves, Gustavo Henrique Zaia; Robertson, Anne L.Riverine ecosystems can be conceptualized as ‘bioreactors’ (the riverine bioreactor) which retain and decompose a wide range of organic substrates. The metabolic performance of the riverine bioreactor is linked to their community structure, the efficiency of energy transfer along food chains, and complex interactions among biotic and abiotic environmental factors. However, our understanding of the mechanistic functioning and capacity of the riverine bioreactor remains limited. We review the state of knowledge and outline major gaps in the understanding of biotic drivers of organic matter decomposition processes that occur in riverine ecosystems, across habitats, temporal dimensions, and latitudes influenced by climate change. We propose a novel, integrative analytical perspective to assess and predict decomposition processes in riverine ecosystems. We then use this model to analyse data to demonstrate that the size-spectra of a community can be used to predict decomposition rates by analysing an illustrative dataset. This modelling methodology allows comparison of the riverine bioreactor’s performance across habitats and at a global scale. Our integrative analytical approach can be applied to advance understanding of the functioning and efficiency of the riverine bioreactor as hotspots of metabolic activity. Application of insights gained from such analyses could inform the development of strategies that promote the functioning of the riverine bioreactor across global ecosystemsItem Open Access Towards climate-adaptive development of small hydropower projects in Himalaya: a multi-model assessment in Upper Beas Basin(Elsevier, 2021-03-11) Shirsat, Tejal S.; Kulkarni, Anil V.; Momblanch, Andrea; Randhawa, S.S.; Holman, Ian P.Study Region: Allain catchment, a sub-basin of Beas basin, Western Himalaya Study Focus: This study aims to assess future glacio-hydrological changes in a small basin and their impacts on the operation of two Small Hydropower Projects (SHP) with contrasting hydrological requirements. The Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) model is used to integrate cryosphere, hydrology and hydropower production modelling in the 21st century using climate changes projected by the ensembles of five global climate models under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. New Hydrological Insights for the Region: The total streamflow in the future is projected to have widespread uncertainty in the magnitude but shows noticeable changes in the seasonality. Of the two SHPs, the one utilizing high flows with low hydraulic head shows a power generation behaviour similar to streamflow projections. Its annual hydropower production is projected to change by 2 to 21% (RCP4.5) and -5 to 40% (RCP8.5) by the end of the century. The other plant that uses lesser flows but high head maintains its designed power production consistently throughout the century. The study indicates that the design of hydropower plants strongly influences their sensitivity to future climate and thus provides important insights into the climate-adaptive designs and planning of future hydropower projects in Himalaya.Item Open Access Towards intangible freshwater cultural ecosystem services: informing sustainable water resources management(MDPI, 2021-02-19) Ncube, Sikhululekile; Beevers, Lindsay; Momblanch, AndreaRivers provide a range of Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) such as aesthetic values, sense of place and inspiration, which remain insufficiently studied due to challenges associated with the assessment of their subjective and intangible attributes. However, the understanding of CES remains important as they are strongly linked to human wellbeing. This study utilizes a questionnaire-based survey to capture views from two villages along the mainstream of the Beas River in India, to identify the CES it provides, to assess how local communities appreciate their importance and how they relate to river flows. In total, 62 respondents were interviewed. Findings show that the Beas River provides several CES but among these, spiritual/religious ceremonies and rituals, aesthetic values and inspiration benefits were indicated as absolutely essential to the local communities. Results also demonstrate that people’s perception of the quality of CES is sometimes linked to river flows. It can be concluded that the Beas River is crucial in the functioning and livelihoods of local communities as it lies within the core of their cultural, religious and spiritual practices. This study reinforces the need to consider the full suite of ecosystem service categories in sustainable water resources development, planning and decision makingItem Open Access Untangling the water-food-energy-environment nexus for global change adaptation in a complex Himalayan water resource system(Elsevier, 2018-11-08) Momblanch, Andrea; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Jain, Sanjay K.; Ojha, Chandra S. P.; Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Holman, Ian P.Holistic water management approaches are essential under future climate and socio-economic changes, especially while trying to achieve inter-disciplinary societal goals such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of clean water, hunger eradication, clean energy and life on land. Assessing water resources within a water-food-energy-environment nexus approach enables the relationships between water-related sectors to be untangled while incorporating impacts of societal changes. We use a systems modelling approach to explore global change impacts on the nexus in the mid-21st century in a complex western Himalayan water resource system in India, considering a range of climate change and alternative socio-economic development scenarios. Results show that future socio-economic changes will have a much stronger impact on the nexus compared to climate change. Hydropower generation and environmental protection represent the major opportunities and limitations for adaptation in the studied system and should, thereby, be the focus for actions and systemic transformations in pursue of the SDGs. The emergence of scenario-specific synergies and trade-offs between nexus component indicators demonstrates the benefits that water resource systems models can make to designing better responses to the complex nexus challenges associated with future global change.