Browsing by Author "Keay, Caroline A."
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Item Open Access Changes in land capability for agriculture under climate change in Wales(Elsevier, 2025-07-25) Hannam, Jacqueline A.; Keay, Caroline A.; Mukherjee, Kriti; Rugg, Ian; Williams, Arwel; Cooke, JamesLand capability assessments are key models that can identify current and future capacity of land for agricultural production. However, assessments of land capability under climate change do not fully consider climate-soil-crop interactions, are produced at scales too coarse for decision making and exclude key end users. We tackle these gaps by co-developing a predictive fine-scale spatial assessment of Agricultural Land Classification in Wales for baseline climate (1961-1990) and future climate scenarios. The findings revealed an increase in the proportion of land with better agricultural potential in 2020 (2010-2039) and 2050 (2040-2069) compared to the baseline, becoming more favourable for agriculture due to decreased soil wetness. However, by 2080 (2070-2099), there was a reduction in the proportion of higher grade and best and most versatile land for agriculture. During this period, an increase in accumulated temperature and decrease in rainfall during the growing season resulted in higher soil moisture deficits and increased risk of summer drought. We identified soil droughtiness as the most limiting factor for agricultural capability in 2080, resulting in a decrease in the best and most versatile land for agriculture (by 2 to 11% compared to the baseline). The transparency of the approach and prediction of land capabilities at local scale enabled effective policy implementation and decision making. The predicted future changes in land capability highlight that policy instruments used currently to protect high grade agricultural land should also consider the potential impacts of climate change.Item Open Access Climate change and land suitability for potato production in England and Wales: impacts and adaptation(Cambridge University Press, 2012-04-01T00:00:00Z) Daccache, Andre; Keay, Caroline A.; Jones, Robert J. A.; Weatherhead, E. K.; Stalham, M. A.; Knox, Jerry W.The viability of commercial potato production is influenced by spatial and temporal variability in soils and agroclimate, and the availability of water resources where supplemental irrigation is required. Soil characteristics and agroclimatic conditions greatly influence the cultivar choice, agronomic husbandry practices and the economics of production. Using the latest (UKCP09) scenarios of climate change for the UK, this paper describes a methodology using pedo-climatic functions and a GIS to model and map current and future land suitability for potato production in England and Wales. The outputs identify regions where rainfed production is likely to become limiting and where future irrigated production would be constrained due to shortages in water availability. The results suggest that by the 2050s, the area of land that is currently well or moderately suited for rainfed production would decline by 74 and 95% under the "most likely" climate projections for the low and high emissions scenario respectively, owing to increased droughtiness. In many areas, rainfed production would become increasingly risky. However, with supplemental irrigation, around 85% of the total arable land in central and eastern England would remain suitable for production, although most of this is in catchments where water resources are already over-licensed and/or over-abstracted; the expansion of irrigated cropping is thus likely to be constrained by water availability. The increase in volumetric water demand due to the switch from rainfed to irrigated potato cropping is likely to be much greater than the incremental increase in water demand solely on irrigated potatoes. The implications of climate change on the potato industry, the adaptation options and responses available, and the uncertainty associated with the land suitability projections, are discussed.Item Open Access Developments in land information systems: examples demonstrating land resource management capabilities and options(Wiley, 2017-10-17) Hallett, Stephen H.; Sakrabani, Ruben; Keay, Caroline A.; Hannam, Jacqueline A.Land Information Systems (LIS) provide a foundation for supporting decision-making across a broad spectrum of natural resource applications: agronomic, environmental, engineering and public good. Typically, LIS constitute a computerized database repository holding geospatial components, ‘mapping unit’ geometry and related georeferenced materials such as satellite imagery, meteorological observations and predictions and scanned legacy mapping. Coupled with the geospatial data are associated property, semantic and metadata, representing a range of thematic properties and characteristics of the land and environment. This paper provides examples of recent developments of national and regional LIS, presenting applications for land resource capabilities and management. These focus on the ‘Land Information System’ (LandIS) for England and Wales, and the ‘World Soil Survey Archive and Catalogue’ (WOSSAC) and consider Agricultural Land Classification in Wales, an Irish land and soil information system, and a scheme to optimize land suitability for application of palm oil biofertilizers in Malaysia. Land Information Systems support purposeful environmental interpretations, drawing on soil and related thematic data, offering insight into land properties, capabilities and characteristics. The examples highlight the practical transferability and extensibility of technical and methodological approaches across geographical contexts. This assessment identifies the value of legacy-based natural resource inventories that can be interoperated with other contemporary sources of information, such as satellite imagery.Item Open Access The implications of a changing climate on agricultural land classification in England and Wales(Cambridge University Press, 2012-10-30) Keay, Caroline A.; Jones, Robert J. A.; Hannam, Jacqueline A.; Barrie, I. A.The agricultural land classification (ALC) of England and Wales is a formal method of assessing the quality of agricultural land and guiding future land use. It assesses several soil, site and climate criteria and classifies land according to whichever is the most limiting. A common approach is required for calculating the necessary agroclimatic parameters over time in order to determine the effects of changes in the climate on land grading. In the present paper, climatic parameters required by the ALC classification have been re-calculated from a range of primary climate data, available from the Meteorological Office's UKCP09 historical dataset, provided as 5 km rasters for every month from 1914 to 2000. Thirty-year averages of the various agroclimatic properties were created for 1921–50, 1931–60, 1941–70, 1951–80, 1961–90 and 1971–2000. Soil records from the National Soil Inventory on a 5 km grid across England and Wales were used to determine the required soil and site parameters for determining ALC grade. Over the 80-year period it was shown that the overall climate was coolest during 1951–80. However, the area of land estimated in retrospect as ‘best and most versatile (BMV) land’ (Grades 1, 2 and 3a) probably peaked in the 1951–80 period as the cooler climate resulted in fewer droughty soils, more than offsetting the land which was downgraded by the climate being too cold. Overall there has been little change in the proportions of ALC grades among the six periods once all 10 factors (climate, gradient, flooding, texture, depth, stoniness, chemical, soil wetness, droughtiness and erosion) are taken into account. This is because it is rare for changes in climate variables all to point in the same direction in terms of ALC. Thus, a reduction in rainfall could result in higher grades in wetter areas but lead to lower classification in drier areas.Item Open Access A land information system for Turkey - a key to the country's sustainable development(Elsevier, 2003-07) Hallett, Stephen H.; Ozden, D. M.; Keay, Caroline A.; Koral, A.; Keskin, S.; Bradley, R. IanThis paper describes the development by the General Directorate of Rural Services (GDRS) of a land information system for Turkey, namely the National Soil and Water Information System. It is of great significance for the modern state of Turkey as, prior to its establishment in 1999 under the Turkish Agricultural Research Project, there was no definitive, national technological information resource underpinning land and water resource management. The system will underpin the operational and research responsibilities of the Directorate in combating some of the pressing contemporary environmental concerns in Turkey, including wind and water erosion, waterlogging, sodicity and salination of the soil resource. The complex process of compiling the first national digital soil map will be among the initial tasks, as well as establishing a national infrastructure for distributing the information amongst GDRS managers and scientists. With the proposed accession of the Turkish Republic to the European Union, alignment of the National Soil and Water Information System with European standards and protocols will prove to be an important facet of its ongoing development.Item Open Access Report of Activity for LandIS Support Quarterly Progress Report 1st Apr - 30th Jun 2009(2011-10-14) Keay, Caroline A.; Farewell, Timothy S.; Rayner, Andrew P.Item Open Access Report of Activity for LandIS Support Quarterly Progress Report 1st April - 30th June 2011(2011-07-26T00:00:00Z) Keay, Caroline A.; Farewell, Timothy S.; Younas, Adnan; Hallett, Stephen H.Item Open Access Report of Activity for LandIS Support Quarterly Progress Report 1st April - 30th June 2010(2010-08-04T00:00:00Z) Keay, Caroline A.; Farewell, Timothy S.; Rayner, Andrew P.; Hallett, Stephen H.Item Open Access Report of Activity for LandIS Support Quarterly Progress Report 1st Jan - 31st Mar 2010(2010-04-29T00:00:00Z) Keay, Caroline A.; Farewell, Timothy S.; Rayner, Andrew P.Item Open Access Report of Activity for LandIS Support Quarterly Progress Report 1st Jan - 31st Mar 2009(2009-04-16T00:00:00Z) Keay, Caroline A.; Farewell, Timothy S.; Rayner, Andrew P.Item Open Access Report of Activity for LandIS Support Quarterly Progress Report 1st Jan - 31st Mar 2011(2011-04-06T00:00:00Z) Keay, Caroline A.; Farewell, Timothy S.; Younas, Adnan; Hallett, Stephen H.Item Open Access Report of Activity for LandIS Support Quarterly Progress Report 1st Jul - 30th Sep 2009(2011-10-14) Keay, Caroline A.; Farewell, Timothy S.; Rayner, Andrew P.Item Open Access Report of Activity for LandIS Support Quarterly Progress Report 1st Jul - 30th Sept 2010(2010-10-14T00:00:00Z) Keay, Caroline A.; Farewell, Timothy S.; Rayner, A. P.; Hallett, Stephen H.Item Open Access Report of Activity for LandIS Support Quarterly Progress Report 1st Oct - 31st Dec 2009(2010-02-02T00:00:00Z) Keay, Caroline A.; Farewell, Timothy S.; Rayner, Andrew P.Item Open Access Soil legacy data rescue via GlobalSoilMap and other international and national initiatives(Elsevier, 2017-06-15) Arrouays, Dominique; Leenaars, Johan G. B.; Richer-de-Forges, Anne C.; Adhikari, Kabindra; Ballabio, Cristiano; Greve, Mogens; Grundy, Mike; Guerrero, Eliseo; Hempel, Jon; Hengl, Tomislav; Heuvelink, Gerard; Batjes, Niels; Carvalho, Eloi; Hartemink, Alfred; Hewitt, Alan; Hong, Suk-Young; Krasilnikov, Pavel; Lagacherie, Philippe; Lelyk, Glen; Libohova, Zamir; Lilly, Allan; McBratney, Alex; McKenzie, Neil; Vasquez, Gustavo M.; Mulder, Vera Leatitia; Minasny, Budiman; Montanarella, Luca; Odeh, Inakwu; Padarian, Jose; Poggio, Laura; Roudier, Pierre; Saby, Nicolas; Savin, Igor; Searle, Ross; Solbovoy, Vladimir; Thompson, James; Smith, Scott; Sulaeman, Yiyi; Vintila, Ruxandra; Viscarra Rossel, Raphael; Wilson, Peter; Zhang, Gan-Lin; Swerts, Martine; Oorts, Katrien; Karklins, Aldis; Feng, Liu; Ibelles Navarro, Alexandro R.; Levin, Arkadiy; Laktionova, Tetiana; Dell'Acqua, Martin; Suvannang, Nopmanee; Ruam, Waew; Prasad, Jagdish; Patil, Nitin; Husnjak, Stjepan; Pásztor, László; Okx, Joop; Hallett, Stephen H.; Keay, Caroline A.; Farewell, Timothy; Lilja, Harri; Juilleret, Jérôme; Marx, Simone; Takata, Yusuke; Kazuyuki, Yagi; Mansuy, Nicolas; Panagos, Panos; van Liedekerke, Mark; Skalsky, Rastislav; Sobocka, Jaroslava; Kobza, Josef; Eftekhari, Kamran; Kacem Alavipanah, Seyed; Moussadek, Rachid; Badraoui, Mohamed; Da Silva, Mayesse; Paterson, Garry; da Conceição Gonçalves, Maria; Theocharopoulos, Sid; Yemefack, Martin; Tedou, Silatsa; Vrscaj, Borut; Grob, Urs; Kozák, Josef; Boruvka, Lubos; Dobos, Endre; Taboada, Miguel; Moretti, Lucas; Rodriguez, DarioLegacy soil data have been produced over 70 years in nearly all countries of the world. Unfortunately, data, information and knowledge are still currently fragmented and at risk of getting lost if they remain in a paper format. To process this legacy data into consistent, spatially explicit and continuous global soil information, data are being rescued and compiled into databases. Thousands of soil survey reports and maps have been scanned and made available online. The soil profile data reported by these data sources have been captured and compiled into databases. The total number of soil profiles rescued in the selected countries is about 800,000. Currently, data for 117, 000 profiles are compiled and harmonized according to GlobalSoilMap specifications in a world level database (WoSIS). The results presented at the country level are likely to be an underestimate. The majority of soil data is still not rescued and this effort should be pursued. The data have been used to produce soil property maps. We discuss the pro and cons of top-down and bottom-up approaches to produce such maps and we stress their complementarity. We give examples of success stories. The first global soil property maps using rescued data were produced by a top-down approach and were released at a limited resolution of 1 km in 2014, followed by an update at a resolution of 250 m in 2017. By the end of 2020, we aim to deliver the first worldwide product that fully meets the GlobalSoilMap specifications.Item Open Access UK food and nutrition security during and after the COVID-19 pandemic(Wiley, 2021-02-19) Rivington, Mike; King, R.; Duckett, D.; Iannetta, P.; Benton, T. G.; Burgess, Paul J.; Hawes, C.; Wellesley, L.; Polhill, J. G.; Aitkenhead, M.; Lozada‐Ellison, L.‐M.; Begg, G.; Williams, Adrian G.; Newton, A.; Lorenzo‐Arribas, A.; Neilson, R.; Watts, C.; Harris, Jim A.; Loades, K.; Stewart, D.; Wardell‐Johnson, D.; Gandossi, G.; Udugbezi, E.; Hannam, Jacqueline A.; Keay, Caroline A.The COVID‐19 pandemic is a major shock to society in terms of health and economy that is affecting both UK and global food and nutrition security. It is adding to the ‘perfect storm’ of threats to society from climate change, biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation, at a time of considerable change, rising nationalism and breakdown in international collaboration. In the UK, the situation is further complicated due to Brexit. The UK COVID‐19 Food and Nutrition Security project, lasting one year, is funded by the Economic and Social Research Council and is assessing the ongoing impact of COVID‐19 on the four pillars of food and nutrition security: access, availability, utilisation and stability. It examines the food system, how it is responding, and potential knock on effects on the UK’s food and nutrition security, both in terms of the cascading risks from the pandemic and other threats. The study provides an opportunity to place the initial lessons being learnt from the on‐going responses to the pandemic in respect of food and nutrition security in the context of other long‐term challenges such as climate change and biodiversity loss.Item Open Access The use and applications of the Soilscapes datasets(2011-07-01T00:00:00Z) Farewell, Timothy S.; Truckell, Ian G.; Keay, Caroline A.; Hallett, Stephen H.A Technical Manual to guide users through the uses and applications of the soilscapes datasets.