Browsing by Author "Jude, Simon R."

Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
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    Assessing the cumulative environmental effects of marine renewable energy developments: establishing common ground
    (Elsevier, 2016-11-03) Willsteed, Edward; Gill, Andrew B.; Birchenough, S. N.; Jude, Simon R.
    Assessing and managing the cumulative impacts of human activities on the environment remains a major challenge to sustainable development. This challenge is highlighted by the worldwide expansion of marine renewable energy developments (MREDs) in areas already subject to multiple activities and climate change. Cumulative effects assessments in theory provide decision makers with adequate information about how the environment will respond to the incremental effects of licensed activities and are a legal requirement in many nations. In practise, however, such assessments are beset by uncertainties resulting in substantial delays during the licensing process that reduce MRED investor confidence and limit progress towards meeting climate change targets. In light of these targets and ambitions to manage the marine environment sustainably, reducing the uncertainty surrounding MRED effects and cumulative effects assessment are timely and vital. This review investigates the origins and evolution of cumulative effects assessment to identify why the multitude of approaches and pertinent research have emerged, and discusses key considerations and challenges relevant to assessing the cumulative effects of MREDs and other activities on ecosystems. The review recommends a shift away from the current reliance on disparate environmental impact assessments and limited strategic environmental assessments, and a move towards establishing a common system of coordinated data and research relative to ecologically meaningful areas, focussed on the needs of decision makers tasked with protecting and conserving marine ecosystems and services.
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    Contextual and interdependent causes of climate change adaptation barriers: Insights from water management institutions in Himachal Pradesh, India
    (Elsevier, 2016-10-31) Azhoni, Adani; Holman, Ian P.; Jude, Simon R.
    Research on adaptation barriers is increasing as the need for climate change adaptation becomes evident. However, empirical studies regarding the emergence, causes and sustenance of adaptation barriers remain limited. This research identifies key contextual causes of adaptation barriers in water institutions in the mountainous Himalayan state of Himachal Pradesh in northern India. Semi-structured interviews were carried out with representatives from twenty-six key governmental, non-governmental, academic and research institutions in the State with responsibilities spanning domestic water supply, irrigation and hydropower generation, environmental monitoring and research. It identified low knowledge capacity and resources, policy implementation gaps, normative attitudes, and unavailability and inaccessibility of data and information compounded with weak interinstitutional networks as key adaptation barriers. Although these barriers are similar to those reported elsewhere, they have important locally-contextual root causes. For instance, inadequate resources result from fragmented resources allocation due to competing developmental priorities and the desire of the political leadership to please diverse electors, rather than climate scepticism. The identified individual barriers are found to be highly inter-dependent and closely intertwined which enables the identification of leverage points for interventions to maximise barrier removal. For instance, breaking down key barriers hindering accessibility to data and information, which are shaped by systemic bureaucracies and cultural attitudes, will involve attitudinal change through sensitisation to the importance of accurate and accessible data and information and the building trust between different actors, in addition to institutional structural changes through legislation and inter-institutional agreements. Approaching barriers as a system of contextually interconnected cultural, systemic, geographical and political underlying factors enriches the understanding of adaptation enablers, thereby contributing to achieving a better adapted society.
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    Delivering organisational adaptation through legislative mechanisms: Evidence from the Adaptation Reporting Power (Climate Change Act 2008)
    (Elsevier, 2016-10-14) Jude, Simon R.; Drew, Gillian H.; Pollard, Simon J. T.; Rocks, Sophie A.; Jenkinson, K.; Lamb, R.
    There is increasing recognition that organisations, particularly in key infrastructure sectors, are potentially vulnerable to climate change and extreme weather events, and require organisational responses to ensure they are resilient and adaptive. However, detailed evidence of how adaptation is facilitated, implemented and reported, particularly through legislative mechanisms is lacking. The United Kingdom Climate Change Act (2008), introduced the Adaptation Reporting Power, enabling the Government to direct so-called reporting authorities to report their climate change risks and adaptation plans. We describe the authors' unique role and experience supporting the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) during the Adaptation Reporting Power's first round. An evaluation framework, used to review the adaptation reports, is presented alongside evidence on how the process provides new insights into adaptation activities and triggered organisational change in 78% of reporting authorities, including the embedding of climate risk and adaptation issues. The role of legislative mechanisms and risk-based approaches in driving and delivering adaptation is discussed alongside future research needs, including the development of organisational maturity models to determine resilient and well adapting organisations. The Adaptation Reporting Power process provides a basis for similar initiatives in other countries, although a clear engagement strategy to ensure buy-in to the process and research on its long-term legacy, including the potential merits of voluntary approaches, is required.
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    Establishing an agenda for social studies research in marine renewable energy
    (Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2014-02-12T00:00:00Z) Kerr, S.; Watts, L.; Colton, J.; Conway, F.; Hull, A.; Johnson, K.; Jude, Simon R.; Kannen, A.; MacDougall, S.; McLachlan, C.; Potts, T.; Vergunst, J.
    To date, academic research relating to Marine Renewable Energy (MRE) has largely focused on resource assessment, technical viability and environmental impact. Experiences from onshore renewable energy tell us that social acceptability is equally critical to project success. However, the specific nature of the marine environment, patterns of resource distribution and governance means experiences from onshore may not be directly applicable to MRE and the marine environment. This paper sets out an agenda for social studies research linked to MRE, identifying key topics for future research: (i) economic impacts; (ii) wealth distribution and community benefits; (iii) communication and knowledge flow; (iv) consultation processes; (v) dealing with uncertainty; (vi) public attitudes; and (vii) planning processes. This agenda is based on the findings of the first workshop of ISSMER, an international research network of social scientists with interests in marine renewable energy. Importantly, this research agenda has been informed by the experiences of developers, regulators and community groups in Orkney. The Orkney archipelago, off the north coast of Scotland, is home to the most intense cluster of MRE research, development and deployment activity in the world today.
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    An evolution of statistical pipe failure models for drinking water networks: a targeted review
    (IWA, 2022-01-19) Barton, Neal A.; Hallett, Stephen; Jude, Simon R.; Tran, Trung Hieu
    The use of statistical models to predict pipe failures has become an important tool for proactive management of drinking water networks. This targeted review provides an overview of the evolution of existing statistical models, grouped into three categories: deterministic, probabilistic and machine learning. The main advantage of deterministic models is simplicity and relative minimal data requirement. Deterministic models predicting failure rates for the network or large groups of pipes performs well and are useful for shorter prediction intervals that describe the influences of seasonality. Probabilistic models can accommodate randomness and are useful for predicting time to failure, interarrival times and the probability of failure. Probability models are useful for individual pipe models. Generally, machine learning describes large complex data more accurately and can improve predictions for individual pipe failure models yet are complex and require expert knowledge. Non-parametric models are better suited to the non-linear relationships between pipe failure variables. Census data and socio-economic data requires further research. The complexity of choosing the most appropriate statistical model requires careful consideration of the type of variables, prediction interval, spatial level, response type and level of inference is required.
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    Predicting the risk of pipe failure using gradient boosted decision trees and weighted risk analysis
    (Nature Publishing Group, 2022-06-17) Barton, Neal Andrew; Hallett, Stephen H.; Jude, Simon R.; Tran, Trung Hieu
    Pipe failure prediction models are essential for informing proactive management decisions. This study aims to establish a reliable prediction model returning the probability of pipe failure using a gradient boosted tree model, and a specific segmentation and grouping of pipes on a 1 km grid that associates localised characteristics. The model is applied to an extensive UK network with approximately 40,000 km of pipeline and a 14-year failure history. The model was evaluated using the Receiver Operator Curve and Area Under the Curve (0.89), briers score (0.007) and Mathews Correlation Coefficient (0.27) for accuracy, indicating acceptable predictions. A weighted risk analysis is used to identify the consequence of a pipe failure and provide a graphical representation of high-risk pipes for decision makers. The weighted risk analysis provided an important step to understanding the consequences of the predicted failure. The model can be used directly in strategic planning, which sets long-term key decisions regarding maintenance and potential replacement of pipes.
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    Regulators as agents: modelling personality and power as evidence is brokered to support decisions on environmental risk
    (2014-01-01T00:00:00Z) Davies, Gareth J.; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Li, J.; Rocks, Sophie A.; Jude, Simon R.; Pollard, Simon J. T.
    Complex regulatory decisions about risk rely on the brokering of evidence between providers and recipients, and involve personality and power relationships that influence the confidence that recipients may place in the sufficiency of evidence and, therefore, the decision outcome. We explore these relationships in an agent-based model; drawing on concepts from environmental risk science, decision psychology and computer simulation. A two-agent model that accounts for the sufficiency of evidence is applied to decisions about salt intake, animal carcass disposal and radioactive waste. A dynamic version of the model assigned personality traits to agents, to explore their receptivity to evidence. Agents with 'aggressor' personality sets were most able to imbue fellow agents with enhanced receptivity (with 'avoider' personality sets less so) and clear confidence in the sufficiency of evidence. In a dynamic version of the model, when both recipient and provider were assigned the 'aggressor' personality set, this resulted in 10 successful evidence submissions in 71 days, compared with 96 days when both agents were assigned the 'avoider' personality set. These insights suggest implications for improving the efficiency and quality of regulatory decision making by understanding the role of personality and power.