CERES :: Browsing by Author "Holman, Ian P."

Browsing by Author "Holman, Ian P."

Now showing 1 - 20 of 125

Open Access
Achievement of Paris climate goals unlikely due to time lags in the land system
(Nature Publishing Group, 2019-02-18) Brown, Calum; Alexander, Peter; Arneth, Almut; Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, Mark
Achieving the Paris Agreement’s aim of limiting average global temperature increases to 1.5 °C requires substantial changes in the land system. However, individual countries’ plans to accomplish these changes remain vague, almost certainly insufficient and unlikely to be implemented in full. These shortcomings are partially the result of avoidable ‘blind spots’ relating to time lags inherent in the implementation of land-based mitigation strategies. Key blind spots include inconsistencies between different land-system policies, spatial and temporal lags in land-system change, and detrimental consequences of some mitigation options. We suggest that improved recognition of these processes is necessary to identify achievable mitigation actions, avoiding excessively optimistic assumptions and consequent policy failures.
Open Access
An adaptable integrated modelling platform to support rapidly evolving agricultural and environmental policy
(Elsevier, 2023-09-17) Harrison, Paula A.; Beauchamp, Kate; Cooper, Joe; Dickie, Ian; Fitch, Alice; Gooday, Richard; Hollaway, Michael; Holman, Ian P.; et al.,
he utility of integrated models for informing policy has been criticised due to limited stakeholder engagement, model opaqueness, inadequate transparency in assumptions, lack of model flexibility and lack of communication of uncertainty that, together, lead to a lack of trust in model outputs. We address these criticisms by presenting the ERAMMP Integrated Modelling Platform (IMP), developed to support the design of new “business-critical” policies focused on agriculture, land-use and natural resource management. We demonstrate how the long-term (>5 years), iterative, two-way and continuously evolving participatory process led to the co-creation of the IMP with government, building trust and understanding in a complex integrated model. This is supported by a customisable modelling framework that is sufficiently flexible to adapt to changing policy needs in near real-time. We discuss how these attributes have facilitated cultural change within the Welsh Government where the IMP is being actively used to explore, test and iterate policy ideas prior to final policy design and implementation.
Open Access
Adapting to climate change by water management organisations: enablers and barriers
(Elsevier, 2018-02-26) Azhoni, Adani; Jude, Simon; Holman, Ian P.
Climate change will be particularly experienced though the medium of water. Water organisations, that are managing societal and ecological needs for water, are therefore likely to experience the impact the most. This study reviews the current literature regarding adaptation to climate change by water management organisations and associated barriers. Literature on adaptive capacity is growing and a general consensus is emerging on the determinants of adaptive capacity, although variations exist regarding how it is to be evaluated, enhanced and applied to policy making due to its dynamic, contextual and latent nature. Since adaptive capacity is hard to measure and successful adaptation difficult to define, some studies focus on the existence of adaptation attributes of organisations. Studies reporting successful adaptation are minimal and barriers of adaptation are being discovered as adaptation research transitions into implementation. But the root causes of these barriers are often overlooked and the interconnectedness of the barriers is poorly addressed. Increasingly, combining top-down and bottom-up approaches to adaptation is being recommended due to the limitations of each. However, knowledge regarding how organisations operating at different scales can enhance adaptive capacity of other organisations operating at another scale is lacking due to the few studies of inter-organisational networks across scales. Social networks among actors are recognised as a key factor to enable adaptation. However, network studies generally focus on individual actors and rarely between public agencies/organisations. Moreover, the current literature is inadequate to understand the relationship between adaptation enabling characteristics, barriers and adaptation manifestation. The review demonstrates that research on understanding the emergence and sustenance of barriers is urgently required. Addressing these knowledge gaps will help to improve the design of adaptation strategies, thereby improving the ability of water management to address the ongoing challenges of climate change.
Open Access
Adapting water management in India to climate change: institutions, networks and barriers.
(2017-05) Azhoni, Adani; Holman, Ian P.; Jude, Simon
Climate change is experienced most through the medium of water. The ability of water institutions and the factors that enable or hinder them to purposefully adapt to the new and additional challenges brought by climate change require better understanding. Factors that influence their perception of climate change impacts and initiatives being taken for adaptation are shaped by various enabling factors and barriers through the interaction with both governmental and non-governmental institutions across administrative scales. Better understanding of these adaptation enablers and barriers is essential for devising adaptation strategies. This research aims to identify and expound the characteristics that enable or hinder institutions to adapt for water management, and hence, it evaluates the involvement of key governmental and non-governmental institutions in India and the inter-institutional networks between them. It surveyed webpages and online documents of sixty Union Government institutions and interviewed representatives from twenty-six governmental, non-governmental, research and academic institutions operating at the national level and another twenty-six institutions operating within the State of Himachal Pradesh in India to assess the characteristics that enable or hinder adaptation. While the online projection of institutional involvement and interaction among key Union Government institutions on climate change and water indicate a more centralized network pointing to Planning Commission and Ministry of Environment and Forest, the interview responses indicated a more distributed network with both Ministries of Water Resources and Environment and Forest recognized as key institutions thereby indicating a potential variation in perception of who is in-charge. Moreover, online documents show institutions that are involved in water have less mention of climate change compared to Union Government ministries involved in less climate-sensitive sectors indicating that impacts of climate change on water are potentially ignored. While it is evident that research and consulting institutions engaging with both national and state level institutions play a key role in enabling adaptation, various barriers pertaining to data and information accessibility, inadequacy of resources and implementation gaps exist particularly due to inter-institutional network fragmentations. Although barriers identified in this study bear resemblance to barriers identified by other researchers in other contexts, this research shows similar barriers can emerge from different underlying causes and are highly interconnected; thereby indicating the need for addressing adaptation barriers collectively as a wider governance issue. Since many of the adaptation barriers emerge from wider governance challenges and are related to larger developmental issues, the findings have important policy implications. Among the various issues that the government needs to address is improving the inter-institutional networks between water institutions so that information dissemination, sharing of learning experiences and data accessibility is improved and prescriptive legislations are seen to be inadequate in this regard. Restructuring the way officials in government water institutions are recruited and deployed is suggested as a potential solution for improving the inter-institutional networks. The research elucidates that inter-institutional networks and transboundary institutions are two pillars that supports adaptation and also bridges the gap between adaptive capacity and adaptation manifestation that enable water institutions to cross the chasm of adaptation barriers. Thus the thesis presents an important analysis of key characteristics that enable or hinder water management institutions to adapt to climate change which have been so far under acknowledged by other studies through the analysis of the state of climate change adaptation in India. Therefore, this study provides valuable insights for developing countries, particularly, facing similar challenges of adapting water management for climate change.
Open Access
Adapting water management to climate change: Institutional involvement, inter-institutional networks and barriers in India
(Elsevier, 2017-04-26) Azhoni, Adani; Holman, Ian P.; Jude, Simon
The capacity of a nation to address the hydrological impacts of climate change depends on the institutions through which water is governed. Inter-institutional networks that enable institutions to adapt and the factors that hinder smooth coordination are poorly understood. Using water governance in India as an example of a complex top-down bureaucratic system that requires effective networks between all key institutions, this research unravels the barriers to adaptation by combining quantitative internet data mining and qualitative analysis of interviews with representatives from twenty-six key institutions operating at the national level. Institutions' online presence shows a disconnect in the institutional discourse between climate change and water with institutions such as the Ministries of Water Resources, Earth Sciences and Agriculture, indicating a lesser involvement compared to institutions such as the Ministries of Finance, External Affairs, Planning Commission. The online documents also indicate a more centralised inter-institutional network, emanating from or pointing to a few key institutions including the Planning Commission and Ministry of Environment and Forests. However, the interviews suggest more complex relational dynamics between institutions and also demonstrate a gap between the aspirational ideals of the National Water Mission under the National Action Plan on Climate Change and the realities of climate change adaptation. This arises from institutional barriers, including lengthy bureaucratic processes and systemic failures, that hinder effective inter-institutional networks to facilitate adaptation. The study provides new understanding of the involvement and barriers of complex multi-layered institutions in climate change adaptation.
Open Access
Advancing the use of scenarios to understand society’s capacity to achieve the 1.5 degree target
(Elsevier, 2019-04-15) Pedde, Simona; Kok, Kasper; Hölscher, Katharina; Frantzeskaki, Niki; Holman, Ian P.; Dunford, Rob; Smith, Alison; Jäger, Jill
With a range of potential pathways to a sustainable future compatible with the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C target, scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool in studies of climate change mitigation and adaptation. A wide range of alternative scenarios have been created, and core amongst these are five socio-economic scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways or SSPs) and four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs). Whilst mitigation scenarios (the Shared Policy Assumptions, or SPAs) have been developed for each SSP-RCP combination, describing the actions necessary to match the climate pathway of the RCP, there has not yet been a systematic approach to address whether and how these actions can be enabled in practice. We present a novel and transferable framework to understand society’s capacity to achieve the 1.5 °C target, based on four participatory case studies using the SSP-RCP scenarios. The methodology builds on a framework for categorising different types of societal capitals and capacities and assessing their impact on the potential to implement different types of mitigation actions. All four case studies show that SSP1 has the highest potential to reach the target. Although environmental awareness is high in both SSP1 and SSP4, continued social inequalities in SSP4 restrict society’s capacity to transform, despite economic growth. In the two least environmentally-aware SSPs, SSP3 and SSP5, the transformation potential is low, but the view on capitals and capacities nonetheless helps identify opportunities for actors to develop and implement mitigation actions. The study highlights that techno-economic assessments of climate strategies need to be complemented by consideration of the critical role played by social and human capital, and by societal capacity to mobilise and create these capitals despite different socio-economic trends. These capitals and capacities are essential to enable the rapid innovation, behavioural change and international co-ordination needed to achieve the 1.5 °C target.
Open Access
Application of a hydrological model in a data-poor arid region catchment: a case study of Wadi Ham, United Arab Emirates
(Cranfield University, 2005-12) Al Mulla , Mohamed Mustafa; Holman, Ian P.
Many arid region Wadi catchments are facing increasing water scarcity due to the unsustainable human practises such as the over expansion of irrigated agriculture and over exploitation of their groundwater aquifers. The “Soil and Water Assessment Tool” (SWAT) model, which is a comprehensive conceptual, semi-distributed watershed scale model, was selected after a review of the hydrological processes occurring in arid region catchments to simulate the hydrological processes of the Wadi Ham catchment in northeast United Arab Emirates. A sensitivity analysis conducted for SWAT for the total runoff, maximum runoff and days of runoff showed that a DEM resolution of no more than 100 m should be used for proper representation of such mountainous arid catchments. The appropriate size of defined sub-basins was found to be about 18 km 2 . The sensitivity analysis also demonstrated that the most sensitive parameters that affect the ephemeral streamflow are mainly related to the soil and channel properties of the catchment soil depth, soil available water capacity, soil bulk density, soil clay percentage, soil curve number, baseflow recession constant and channel effective hydraulic conductivity. SWAT simulated the ephemeral streamflow in Wadi Ham acceptably. For the calibration period of 1981 and 1982, the performance statistics for DRMS, PBIAS, NSE and PEM were 1.10 m 3 /s, 27.12%, 0.78 and 0.80 respectively. During the validation period between 1983 and 1988, the DRMS, PBIAS, NSE and PEM were 0.93 m 3 /s, -27.30%, 0.57 and 0.70 respectively. SWAT showed very plausible behaviour for reservoir sedimentation, plant growth, irrigation abstraction and groundwater recharge via the transmission losses mechanism. However, SWAT was not able to adequately simulate the recharge from the bottom of the recharge dam reservoir due to an inappropriate maximum effective hydraulic conductivity defined by the model. Two management scenarios were simulated. The first scenario related to the construction of an additional dam upstream and its effect on sedimentation rate in the main reservoir. The second scenario found that the recharge volumes could be enhanced through the construction of a discharge inlet point into the main stream channel for the treated wastewater from the principal town upstream of the catchment. The successful simulation of Wadi Ham represents the first use of SWAT in a truly arid climate. This research has therefore established the feasibility of using SWAT as a tool for integrated catchment modelling in arid region data- poor Wadi catchments and to support improved water resources management in this water stressed environment.
Open Access
Application of a hydrological model in a data-poor tropical West African catchment: a case study of the Densu Basin of Ghana
(Cranfield University, 2005-11) Bekoe, Emmanuel Obeng; Holman, Ian P.
This thesis reports on the suitability of using a hydrological model to predict the impact of future catchment changes on the surface water resources of tropical West African catchments, as a basis for sustainable watershed management strategies. The economically-important but data-poor Densu Basin (2100km2) in Ghana is used as a case study. Prior to the identification of an appropriate model, a range of model selection criteria to achieve the research objectives were developed, which included minimum data requirements. Following a review of available models, the ACRU hydrological model was chosen using these selection criteria. As this is the first use of the ACRU model in the Tropics, a sensitivity analysis was performed to gain a better understanding of the correspondence between the data and the physical processes being modelled and to inform future data collection priorities. The most sensitive parameters identified were rainfall; soil water content at field capacity and monthly crop coefficients. The sensitive parameters were different from those previously identified for semi arid regions, thereby improving the wider understanding of the behaviour of the ACRU model in a new climatic region of Africa for future studies. Although the ACRU model performed well during calibration (e.g. Nash and Sutcliff Efficiency > 0.8), it performed poorly during the validation period (e.g. NSE < 0.5). Aggregation of the daily output to monthly averages improved the performance appraisal statistics to a level where the model is appropriate for longer term water management issues such as irrigation planning and water supply planning. However, the prediction of the hydrological consequences of future catchment changes using the model could not be performed due to the variable model performance. A detailed analysis of input data quality and model performance identified a number of contributory reasons which included the poor distribution of available data from rain gauges and evaporation stations, poor data management and problems with groundwater processes within ACRU. Recommendations to the Densu River Basin Management Board to address the main problem area of data quality include ensuring that all data (new as well as existing) is subject to QC/QA procedures, the development of data archiving / back-up systems, making historical data available to the wider hydrological community; and guidance on deriving model inputs from available data for future modellers. Finally recommendations on which areas need further study during future research using the ACRU model are given.
Open Access
An assessment of the risk to surface water ecosystems of groundwater P in the UK and Ireland
(Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2010-03-15T00:00:00Z) Holman, Ian P.; Howden, N. J. K.; Bellamy, Patricia H.; Willby, N.; Whelan, M. J.; Rivas Casado, Monica
A good quantitative understanding of phosphorus (P) delivery is essential in the design of management strategies to prevent eutrophication of terrestrial freshwaters. Most research to date has focussed on surface and near-surface hydrological pathways, under the common assumption that little P leaches to groundwater. Here we present an analysis of national patterns of groundwater phosphate concentrations in England and Wales, Scotland, and the Republic of Ireland, which shows that many groundwater bodies have median P concentrations above ecologically significant thresholds for freshwaters. The potential risk to receptor ecosystems of high observed groundwater P concentrations will depend on (1) whether the observed groundwater P concentrations are above the natural background; (2) the influence of local hydrogeological settings (pathways) on the likelihood of significant P transfers to the receptor; (3) the sensitivity of the receptor to P; and, (4) the relative magnitude of P transfers from groundwater compared to other P sources. Our research suggests that, although there is often a high degree of uncertainty in many of these factors, groundwater has the potential to trigger and/or maintain eutrophication under certain scenarios: the assumption of groundwater contribution to river flows as a ubiquitous source of dilution for P-rich surface runoff must therefore be questioned. Given the regulatory importance of P concentrations in triggering ecological quality thresholds, there is an urgent need for detailed monitoring and research to characterise the extent and magnitude of different groundwater P sources, the likelihood for P transformation and/or storage along aquifer- hyporheic zone flow paths and to identify the subsequent risk to receptor ecosystems. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Open Access
Bias correction of high-resolution regional climate model precipitation output gives the best estimates of precipitation in Himalayan catchments
(American Geophysical Union (AGU), 2019-12-14) Bannister, Daniel; Orr, Andrew; Jain, Sanjay K.; Holman, Ian P.; Momblanch, Andrea; Phillips, Tony; Adeloye, Adebayo J.; Snapir, Boris; Waine, Toby W.; Hosking, J. Scott; Allen‐Sader, Clare
The need to provide accurate estimates of precipitation over catchments in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram, and Himalaya mountain ranges for hydrological and water resource systems assessments is widely recognised, as is identifying precipitation extremes for assessing hydro‐meteorological hazards. Here, we investigate the ability of bias‐corrected Weather Research and Forecasting model output at 5 km grid spacing to reproduce the spatiotemporal variability of precipitation for the Beas and Sutlej river basins in the Himalaya, measured by 44 stations spread over the period 1980 to 2012. For the Sutlej basin, we find that the raw (uncorrected) model output generally underestimated annual, monthly, and (particularly low‐intensity) daily precipitation amounts. For the Beas basin, the model performance was better, although biases still existed. It is speculated that the cause of the dry bias over the Sutlej basin is a failure of the model to represent an early‐morning maximum in precipitation during the monsoon period, which is related to excessive precipitation falling upwind. However, applying a non‐linear bias‐correction method to the model output resulted in much better results, which were superior to precipitation estimates from reanalysis and two gridded datasets. These findings highlight the difficulty in using current gridded datasets as input for hydrological modelling in Himalayan catchments, suggesting that bias‐corrected high‐resolution regional climate model output is in fact necessary. Moreover, precipitation extremes over the Beas and Sutlej basins were considerably under‐represented in the gridded datasets, suggesting that bias‐corrected regional climate model output is also necessary for hydro‐meteorological risk assessments in Himalayan catchments.
Open Access
Bridging uncertainty concepts across narratives and simulations in environmental scenarios
(2018-05-11) Pedde, Simona; Kok, Kasper; Onigkeit, Janina; Brown, Calum; Holman, Ian P.; Harrison, Paula A.
Uncertainties in our understanding of current and future climate change projections, impacts and vulnerabilities are structured by scientists using scenarios, which are generally in qualitative (narrative) and quantitative (numerical) forms. Although conceptually strong, qualitative and quantitative scenarios have limited complementarity due to the lack of a fundamental bridge between two different concepts of uncertainty: linguistic and epistemic. Epistemic uncertainty is represented by the range of scenarios and linguistic variables within them, while linguistic uncertainty is represented by the translation of those linguistic variables via the fuzzy set approach. Both are therefore incorporated in the models that utilise the final quantifications. The application of this method is demonstrated in a stakeholder-led development of socioeconomic scenarios. The socioeconomic scenarios include several vague elements due to heterogeneous linguistic interpretations of future change on the part of stakeholders. We apply the so-called ‘Centre of Gravity’ (CoG) operator to defuzzify the quantifications of linguistic values provided by stakeholders. The results suggest that, in these cases, uniform distributions provide a close fit to the membership functions derived from ranges of values provided by stakeholders. As a result, the 90 or 95% intervals of the probability density functions are similar to the 0.1 or 0.05 degrees of membership of the linguistic values of linguistic variables. By bridging different uncertainty concepts (linguistic and epistemic uncertainties), this study offers a substantial step towards linking qualitative and quantitative scenarios.
Open Access
Can we be certain about future land use change in Europe? A multi-scenario, integrated-assessment analysis
(Elsevier, 2016-12-09) Holman, Ian P.; Brown, C.; Janes, Victoria J.; Sandars, Daniel L.
The global land system is facing unprecedented pressures from growing human populations and climatic change. Understanding the effects these pressures may have is necessary to designing land management strategies that ensure food security, ecosystem service provision and successful climate mitigation and adaptation. However, the number of complex, interacting effects involved makes any complete understanding very difficult to achieve. Nevertheless, the recent development of integrated modelling frameworks allows for the exploration of the co-development of human and natural systems under scenarios of global change, potentially illuminating the main drivers and processes in future land system change. Here, we use one such integrated modelling framework (the CLIMSAVE Integrated Assessment Platform) to investigate the range of projected outcomes in the European land system across climatic and socio-economic scenarios for the 2050s. We find substantial consistency in locations and types of change even under the most divergent conditions, with results suggesting that climate change alone will lead to a contraction in the agricultural and forest area within Europe, particularly in southern Europe. This is partly offset by the introduction of socioeconomic changes that change both the demand for agricultural production, through changing food demand and net imports, and the efficiency of agricultural production. Simulated extensification and abandonment in the Mediterranean region is driven by future decreases in the relative profitability of the agricultural sector in southern Europe, owing to decreased productivity as a consequence of increased heat and drought stress and reduced irrigation water availability. The very low likelihood (< 33% probability) that current land use proportions in many parts of Europe will remain unchanged suggests that future policy should seek to promote and support the multifunctional role of agriculture and forests in different European regions, rather than focusing on increased productivity as a route to agricultural and forestry viability.
Open Access
Catchment and climatic influences on spatio-temporal variations in suspended sediment transport dynamics in rivers
(IWA Publishing, 2023-08-04) Shin, Jae hun; Grabowski, Robert C.; Holman, Ian P.
Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is an important attribute for water resources management. However, the interactions between climate and catchment characteristics that control the temporal variability of SSC in rivers are not fully resolved. The study aim is to evaluate how these variables influence spatial and seasonal variations in SSC dynamics at a continental scale. Daily SSC (mg/l) and site attribute data from 120 sites (USA) with minimum 10 years of record (1971–2000) were analysed. New indicators of SSC dynamics (magnitude and frequency) were developed and applied annually and seasonally. Geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were created for each ordinary least squares (OLS) regression model, and GWR coefficients were analysed by ecoregion. Land cover, rainfall and erosivity, baseflow index and soil texture were the most common variables in the OLS models. GWR coefficients displayed significant variation across the continent. Agricultural cover was positively associated with low frequency SSC events, while urban and forest cover predicted higher frequency events, except in the desert areas. PPT30 was generally a negative predictor for SSC magnitude, except the marine west coasts forests. These findings on catchment and climate controls on SSC will support future predictive models of SS transport dynamics.
Open Access
The challenges of developing an irrigation strategy for UK agriculture and horticulture in 2020: industry and research priorities
(CABI, 2020-10-14) Knox, Jerry W.; Kay, M. G.; Hess, Tim; Holman, Ian P.
In many countries, including the UK, water resources are under intense stress with recent droughts highlighting the risks to the security of supplies for different sectors including domestic water supply, industry, agriculture (including horticulture), power generation and the environment. A changing climate with greater rainfall uncertainty, coupled with new regulations, increasing competition for water and demands for sustainable development will only exacerbate the current situation, with major supply-demand imbalances expected over the next few decades. In the UK, irrigated agriculture constitutes a volumetrically small but economically high value use of water, to maximise crop yields and quality. However, the importance of irrigation is also changing; driven by the intensification and transformation of the agricultural sector, the need to recognise water as an 'essential' use, policy incentives to increase domestic food production and an industry imperative to increase water use efficiency and ensure agricultural expansion can continue to underpin the rural economy. This review considers the key climate and water-related risks facing the agricultural and horticultural crop sectors, the various environmental, regulatory and business externalities or 'drivers for change', and the strategic priorities for action, both from industry and research perspectives.
Open Access
Climate change impact modelling needs to include cross-sectoral interactions
(Nature Publishing Group, 2016-05-23) Harrison, P. A.; Dunford, Robert W.; Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
Climate change impact assessments often apply models of individual sectors such as agriculture, forestry and water use without considering interactions between these sectors. This is likely to lead to misrepresentation of impacts, and consequently to poor decisions about climate adaptation. However, no published research assesses the differences between impacts simulated by single-sector and integrated models. Here we compare 14 indicators derived from a set of impact models run within single-sector and integrated frameworks across a range of climate and socio-economic scenarios in Europe. We show that single-sector studies misrepresent the spatial pattern, direction and magnitude of most impacts because they omit the complex interdependencies within human and environmental systems. The discrepancies are particularly pronounced for indicators such as food production and water exploitation, which are highly influenced by other sectors through changes in demand, land suitability and resource competition. Furthermore, the discrepancies are greater under different socio-economic scenarios than different climate scenarios, and at the sub-regional rather than Europe-wide scale.
Open Access
Climate change impacts on groundwater recharge- uncertainty, shortcomings, and the way forward?
(Springer Science Business Media, 2006-06-01T00:00:00Z) Holman, Ian P.
An integrated approach to assessing the regional impacts of climate and socio- economic change on groundwater recharge is described from East Anglia, UK. Many factors affect future groundwater recharge including changed precipitation and temperature regimes, coastal flooding, urbanization, woodland establishment, and changes in cropping and rotations. Important sources of uncertainty and shortcomings in recharge estimation are discussed in the light of the results. The uncertainty in, and importance of, socio-economic scenarios in exploring the consequences of unknown future changes are highlighted. Changes to soil properties are occurring over a range of time scales, such that the soils of the future may not have the same infiltration properties as existing soils. The potential implications involved in assuming unchanging soil properties are described. To focus on the direct impacts of climate change is to neglect the potentially important role of policy, societal values and economic processes in shaping the landscape above aquifers. If the likely consequences of future changes of groundwater recharge, resulting from both climate and socio-economic change, are to be assessed, hydrogeologists must increasingly work with researchers from other disciplines, such as socio-economists, agricultural modellers and soil scientists.
Open Access
Co-producing transformative visions for Europe in 2100: A multi-scale approach to orientate transformations under climate change
(Elsevier, 2022-09-05) Hölscher, Katharina; Frantzeskaki, Niki; Jäger, Jill; Holman, Ian P.; Pedde, Simona
Achieving sustainability and resilience transformations under climate change requires transformative and multi-scale visions to stimulate coherent thinking and action towards radically alternative futures. We present our approach to co-produce transformative visions contextualised in different regions across Europe, while exploring emergent ‘pan-European’ vision elements to guide transformative climate action across scales. We co-produced visions with stakeholders in four case studies: European, national (Scotland), transboundary river basin (Iberia) and two municipalities (Hungary). All visions share core aspirations for good living, justice and social and environmental wellbeing in Europe, while allowing contextualised interpretation to remain meaningful in view of context-specific needs, priorities, cultural perceptions and aspirations. The visions point to areas where deep transformations are required: in service provisioning from critical infrastructures like energy, food, health and education, and in lifestyles and governance. We discuss two key methodological considerations for the co-production of transformative visions across multiple scales. Firstly, the application of a systematic and comprehensive framework across all scales provided a guide to compare and ensure coherence between visions across multiple scales. Secondly, the creation of transformative spaces to co-produce the visions with stakeholders supported critical reflections and learning about the radical and multi-dimensional changes necessary in different regions in Europe.
Open Access
Combining qualitative and quantitative understanding for exploring cross-sectoral climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability in Europe
(Springer, 2013-08-01) Harrison, Paula A.; Holman, Ian P.; Cojocaru, George; Kok, Kasper; Kontogianni, Areti; Metzger, Marc J.; Gramberger, Marc
Climate change will affect all sectors of society and the environment at all scales, ranging from the continental to the national and local. Decision-makers and other interested citizens need to be able to access reliable science-based information to help them respond to the risks of climate change impacts and assess opportunities for adaptation. Participatory integrated assessment (IA) tools combine knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines, take account of the value and importance of stakeholder ‘lay insight’ and facilitate a two-way iterative process of exploration of ‘what if’s’ to enable decision-makers to test ideas and improve their understanding of the complex issues surrounding adaptation to climate change. This paper describes the conceptual design of a participatory IA tool, the CLIMSAVE IA Platform, based on a professionally facilitated stakeholder engagement process. The CLIMSAVE (climate change integrated methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe) Platform is a user-friendly, interactive web-based tool that allows stakeholders to assess climate change impacts and vulnerabilities for a range of sectors, including agriculture, forests, biodiversity, coasts, water resources and urban development. The linking of models for the different sectors enables stakeholders to see how their interactions could affect European landscape change. The relationship between choice, uncertainty and constraints is a key cross-cutting theme in the conduct of past participatory IA. Integrating scenario development processes with an interactive modelling platform is shown to allow the exploration of future uncertainty as a structural feature of such complex problems, encouraging stakeholders to explore adaptation choices within real-world constraints of future resource availability and environmental and institutional capacities, rather than seeking the ‘right’ answers.
Open Access
The concepts and development of a participatory regional integrated assessment tool.
(Springer Science Business Media, 2008-09-01T00:00:00Z) Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Cojacaru, G.; Shackley, S.; McLachlan, C.; Audsley, Eric; Berry, P. M.; Fontaine, C.; Harrison, P. A.; Henriques, C.; Mokrech, M.; Nicholls, R. J.; Pearn, Kerry R.; Richards, J. A.
This paper provides an overview of the development of the ‘Regional Impact Simulator’ – a user friendly software tool designed to allow stakeholders to perform integrated assessments of the effects of climate and/or socio-economic change on the important sectors and resources of two contrasting UK regions. This includes the assessment of agriculture, water resources, biodiversity and coastal and river flooding. The tool arose from the need to further develop the methods applied in the earlier RegIS project, which was the first local to regional integrated assessment in the UK. The limitations of RegIS included very long run times, a limited number of simulations, incomplete linkages between models and no allowance for scenario uncertainty. Based upon the stakeholder needs identified within RegIS, a series of guiding principles were developed with Steering Committee stakeholders, which informed the concept of the ‘Regional Impact Simulator’ including functionality, appearance and complexity. An Integrated Assessment Methodology based upon the Drivers-Pressure-State- Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework facilitated the integration of multiple models, scenarios and datasets within the software interface. The development of the ‘Regional Impact Simulator’ provides a test-bed for further studies of stakeholder-led, regional, integrated assessment, and provides an opportunity to learn the many lessons in undertakin
Open Access
A conceptual model for climatic teleconnection signal control on groundwater variability in the UK and Europe
(Elsevier, 2017-07-22) Rust, William; Holman, Ian P.; Corstanje, Ronald; Bloomfield, John; Cuthbert, Mark
The ability to predict future variability of groundwater resources in time and space is of critical importance to drought management. Periodic control on groundwater levels from oscillatory climatic systems (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation) offers a potentially valuable source of longer term forecasting capability. While some studies have found evidence of the influence of such climatic oscillations within groundwater records, there is little information on how periodic signals propagate between a climatic system and a groundwater resource. This paper develops a conceptual model of this relationship for groundwater resources in the UK and Europe, based on a review of current research. The studies reviewed here reveal key spatial and temporal signal modulations between climatic oscillations, precipitation, groundwater recharge and groundwater discharge. Generally positive correlations are found between the NAO (as a dominant influence) and precipitation in northern Europe indicating a strong control on water available for groundwater recharge. These periodic signals in precipitation are transformed by the unsaturated and saturated zones, such that signals are damped and lagged. This modulation has been identified to varying degrees, and is dependent on the shape, storage and transmissivity of an aquifer system. This goes part way towards explaining the differences in periodic signal strength found across many groundwater systems in current research. So that an understanding of these relationships can be used by water managers in building resilience to drought, several research gaps have been identified. Among these are improved quantification of spatial groundwater sensitivity to periodic control, and better identification of the hydrogeological controls on signal lagging and damping. Principally, research needs to move towards developing improved predictive capability for the use of periodic climate oscillations as indicators of longer term groundwater variability.