Browsing by Author "Hafezi, Mehdi"

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    5 year public health impacts of an urban greenway, Belfast, Northern Ireland: Causal Loop Diagram (Abstract no diagram)
    (Oxford University Press, 2023-10-24) Hunter, R.; Garcia, L.; Clewley, Natalie; Hafezi, Mehdi; Hilton, Jeremy
    Background The development of large scale urban green space infrastructure, such as a new urban greenway, provokes a cascade of changes abating a series of public health impacts, in the realms of: health, society, economy and the environment. The relationships between these factors sustain reciprocal and dynamic influence with potential to generate a virtuous cycle. However, such long-term impacts and their inter-relationships are poorly understood. Methods We aimed to co-develop a shared understanding of the public health impacts of the Connswater Community Greenway with multi-sectoral stakeholders 5 years post-implementation. Objectives were to (a) build shared understanding of the complex system influencing the public health impact of the Connswater Community Greenway, and (b) identify and explore priorities, opportunities, and actions to improve future impacts. We undertook Group Model Building workshops with people representing relevant stakeholders involved in the development and/or maintenance of the Connswater Community Greenway, and local residents living on or along the greenway. Results 23 participants were involved in the workshop included local governmental agencies, local residents, advocacy groups, private sector, and researchers. Stakeholders produced a systems map detailing the public health impacts of the Connswater Community Greenway 5 years post-implementation. Key impacts included increased in mental wellbeing, sense of community pride, increased biodiversity, increased economic investment in the local area. Participants identified a range of priority actions that, in their view, could impact and help reshape the system and influence the future impacts of the greenway. Conclusions The CLD was reflective of the various stakeholders’ experience, knowledge, perceptions, and views about the factors, and the inter-relationships between these factors, of the public health impact of the Connswater Community Greenway at 5 years post-implementation. Key messages • Systems thinking approaches can help identify the public health impacts and plausible causal pathways of green space interventions. • 5 year impacts of an urban greenway included improvements in the realms of health, wellbeing, the environment, the economy and society.
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    Future-proofing cities against negative city mobility and public health impacts of impending natural hazards: a system dynamics modelling study
    (Elsevier, 2025-03-01) Garcia, Leandro; Hafezi, Mehdi; Lima, Larissa; Millett, Christopher; Thompson, Jason; Wang, Ruoyu; Akaraci, Selin; Goel, Rahul; Reis, Rodrigo; Nice, Kerry A.; Zapata-Diomedi, Belen; Hallal, Pedro C.; Moro, Esteban; Amoako, Clifford; Hunter, Ruth F.
    BACKGROUND: The world faces increasing risk from more frequent and larger scale natural hazards, including infectious disease outbreaks (IDOs) and climate change-related extreme weather events (EWEs). These natural hazards are expected to have adverse mobility and public health impacts, with people living in cities especially vulnerable. Little is known about how transport systems can be optimally designed to make cities more resilient to these hazards. Our aim was to investigate how cities' transport systems, and their resulting mobility patterns, affect their capabilities to mitigate mobility and health impacts of future large-scale IDOs and EWEs. METHODS: System dynamics modelling was used to investigate how different city mobility scenarios can affect the health and mobility impacts of four plausible future IDO and EWE (flooding) shocks in three cities: Belfast, UK; Belo Horizonte, Brazil; and Delhi, India. Three city mobility scenarios with incremental degrees of modal shift towards active travel (private motor vehicle volume reduced to 50% and 20% of total road trip volume in vision 1 and 2, and motor vehicle volume [including buses] reduced to 20% of total road trip volume in vision 3) were tested. For each city and each IDO and EWE shock, we estimated the percentage of deaths prevented in visions 1, 2, and 3, relative to the reference scenario, as well as changes in mode share over time. FINDINGS: In all scenarios, all cities showed reduced susceptibility to flooding, with 4-50% of deaths potentially prevented, depending on case city, city mobility, and EWE scenario. The more ambitious the transition towards healthier city mobility patterns, the greater the resilience against flooding. Only vision 3 (the most ambitious transition) showed reduced vulnerability to IDOs, with 6-19% of deaths potentially prevented. Evolution of mode shares varied greatly across cities and mobility scenarios under the IDO shocks. INTERPRETATION: Our results emphasise the importance of well designed, forward-thinking urban transport systems that make cities more resilient and reduce the impact of future public health-related and climate-related threats. FUNDING: UK Prevention Research Partnership, UK Economic and Social Research Council, UK Medical Research Council, UK National Institute for Health and Care Research, Australian Research Council, Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, and Health and Social Care Research and Development Office Northern Ireland.