Browsing by Author "Gill, Mark"

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    BPC/MRS enquiry into election polling 2015: Ipsos MORI response and perspective
    (World Advertising Research Center, 2017) Mortimore, Roger; Baines, Paul R.; Worcester, Robert; Gill, Mark
    This Forum article considers the unsatisfactory results of pre-election opinion polling in the 2015 British general election and the BPC/MRS enquiry report into polling by Sturgis et al., providing a response from Ipsos MORI and associated researchers at King’s College London and Cranfield Universities Whilst Sturgis et al. (2016) consider how to perfect opinion poll forecasting, why the 2015 prediction was inaccurate when the same methodology returned satisfactory results in 2005 and 2010 at Ipsos MORI is considered here instead We agree with Sturgis et al. that the inaccurate results were not due to late swing or the ‘shy Tory’ problem and with Taylor (2016) that the underlying problem is a response rate bias However, Sturgis et al. critique pollsters in their report for systematically under-representing Conservative voters but the Ipsos MORI final poll had too many Conservatives, too many Labour voters and not enough nonvoters The Sturgis et al. conclusion is convincing that the politically disengaged were under-represented due to quotas and weighting mechanisms designed to correct for response bias Nevertheless, for Ipsos MORI, this explanation does not account for why the polling methodology was inaccurate in 2015 when it had performed accurately in 2005 and 2010 For Ipsos MORI, a more likely explanation is that Labour voters in 2015 became more prone to exaggerate their voting likelihood We offer various postulations on why this might have been so, concluding that to account for the inaccuracy requires a two-fold response, to improve: (i) sample representativeness and (ii) the projection of voting behaviour from the data Unfortunately, the BPC/MRS report offers no blueprint for how to solve the problem of sampling the politically disengaged Whilst Ipsos MORI have redesigned their quotas to take account of education levels, to represent those better with no formal educational qualifications and reduce overrepresentation of graduates, polling in the referendum on EU membership suggests that the problem of drawing a representative sample has been solved but difficulties in how best to allow for turnout persist.
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    The Dark Side of Political Marketing: Islamist Propaganda, Reversal Theory and British Muslims
    (Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2010-03-01T00:00:00Z) Baines, Paul R.; O'Shaughnessy, Nicholas J.; Moloney, Kevin; Richards, Barry; Butler, Sara; Gill, Mark
    Purpose This article discusses exploratory research into the perceptions of British Muslims towards Islamist ideological messaging to contribute to the general debate on ‘radicalisation'. The article discusses the findings of discussion groups in the light of research previously undertaken in the propaganda/psychology fields, from the perspective of Reversal Theory. Methodology/approach Four focus groups were undertaken with a mixture of Bangladeshi and Pakistani British Muslims who were shown a selection of Islamist propaganda media clips, garnered from the internet. The research is intended to provide exploratory indications of how British Muslims receive Islamist communication messages in order to provoke further research in this critical field. Findings We propose that Islamist communications focus on eliciting change in emotional states, specifically inducing the paratelic-excitement mode, by focusing around a meta-narrative of Muslims as a unitary grouping self- defined as victim to Western aggression. Early indicators are that some genres of Islamist propaganda may be more effective than others in generating these emotional change states (e.g. cartoons) and some groupings appear to be more susceptible than others. We conclude that our British Muslim respondents were unsympathetic to the Islamist ideological messaging contained in our sample of propaganda clips. Research limitations/implications The research highlights the difficulties in undertaking research in such a sensitive field. We propose a series of four testable propositions to guide future research looking specifically at whether those subjects who are more likely to be excited by Islamist communication include those with weakly held identities, younger males, those feeling contempt for Western culture, and the use of specific media genre formats. Originality/value of paper The article provides an insight into how British Muslims might respond to Islamist communications, indicating that whilst most are not susceptible to inducement of paratelic-excitement, others are likely to be, dependent on which genre of clip is used, the messages contained therein, and who that clip is targeted a
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    Examining the Academic/Practitioner Divide in Marketing Research
    (Emerald Group Publishing Limited, 2009-01-01T00:00:00Z) Baines, Paul R.; Brennan, Ross; Gill, Mark; Mortimore, Roger
    Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to comment on the differences in perceptions that exist between academic and professional marketing researchers, as creators of new marketing knowledge, and explore how academics and practitioners can work together better on areas of mutual interest or separately on areas where their interests do not coincide. Design/methodology/approach - The approach is via two focus groups, one with researchers in marketing from universities and one with commercial market researchers, and via online surveys of the same target groups, with 638 respondents in all. Findings - The study indicates that the two sample groups have relatively congruent views about the advantages and disadvantages of each other's approach to research but both groups believe they could do more to make their research more comprehensible and accessible to each other. Research limitations/implications - The empirical study was conducted in the UK only, and the response rate from the university marketing research community was disappointingly low. These represent limitations on the generalisability of the findings. Practical implications - It is argued that marketing research can be undertaken separately by academics and practitioner researchers but that joint working between academic and commercial marketing researchers represents another dimension to marketing research which could be facilitated by the creation of joint initiatives, including industry- inspired academic-practitioner research projects and the development of government-funded academic-practitioner research projects, building on both groups' unique sets of skills. Originality/value - The paper reports on the outcome of an empirical study that has implications for the conduct of marketing research in universities and market research agencies.
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    Muslim voices: The British Muslim response to Islamic video-polemic - An exploratory study
    (2006-12-01T00:00:00Z) Baines, Paul R.; O'Shaughnessy, Nicholas J.; Moloney, Kevin; Richards, Barry; Butler, Sara; Gill, Mark
    This paper represents an attempt to deconstruct how Muslims living in Britain might respond to militant Islamist propaganda, as typified by elected ‘Jihadist’ video-clips obtained from the Internet, using a discussion group format. The article discusses the methodological difficulties of conducting research in the propaganda field using a conventional advertising-evaluation type approach, and provides a series of testable propositions to guide further research in the field. The central thesis is that ‘Jihadist’ communications focus around a meta- narrative of Muslims as a unitary grouping selfdefined as victim to Western aggression. While early indicators are that some genres of propaganda may be more effective than others (e.g. cartoons) in introducing this notion and some groupings more susceptible than others, we conclude that in general most Muslim respondents were unsympathetic to the messages contained in the propaganda clips. This paper will be of particular interest to managers of government social and market research programmes and media/PR practi
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    Research Note: The EU Constitution and the British Public: What The Polls Tell Us About the Campaign That Never Was
    (Oxford University Press, 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z) Baines, Paul R.; Gill, Mark
    In Switzerland and the USA, referendums are so ubiquitous that a highly diverse industry has spawned up around them (Bowler, Donovan, & Fernandez, 1996). They are now increasingly commonplace in the EU as it enlarges. Up until June 2005, Britons expected to be asked to consent or reject the proposed EU Constitutional Treaty in a national referendum but the French and Dutch no votes in their own referendums in May and June 2005 scuppered this and Britain and other EU countries paused for a period of reflection. The ‘non’ and ‘nee’ votes constituted public defiance of their governments’ appeal to accept the EU Constitution, indicating how far removed the French and Dutch political elites were from the public (see Parker, 2005). In this research note, we consider British public opinion on Europe and the Constitutional Treaty, providing a summary of the referendum process along five key themes as follows: A sceptical view of the Constitution: All polls showed that a majority of British people intended to vote ‘no’ rather than ‘yes’ in the referendum. A persuadable electorate: More detailed analysis highlights the crucial importance of those who had not made up their minds and how they might affect the outcome of the vote. A largely under-informed public: The lack of information about Europe that the British public possessed characterizes British opinion both towards the Constitution and Europe more generally. A country that sees itself distinct from Europe: Perceived distinctiveness is important to understanding British public opinion on Europe. An unimportant event: The referendum campaigns failed to capture the imaginat