Browsing by Author "Farewell, Timothy"
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Item Open Access Forward-looking climatic scenarios of UK clay-related subsidence risk(Cranfield University, 2015-06-01) Hallett, Stephen H.; Farewell, Timothy; Pritchard, Oliver G.An award drawing upon the Cranfield University EPSRC-funded Impact Acceleration Account (IAA) was awarded to staff in the University’s School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood (SEEA) (Hallett, Farewell, Pritchard), to undertake processing of UKCP09 climate projections for the United Kingdom (UK) in support of assessments of future geohazards and societal impact. This report identifies the technical outcomes from this work and presents the resultant climate change cartography and related data. Spatially coherent national data ensembles are generated for the UKCP09 ‘Baseline’ period, for ‘2030’ and ‘2050’. Maps of Potential Soil Moisture Deficit (PSMD) are produced for each to exemplify its application. The findings suggest that the extremes in PSMD observed at the current time in the UK are likely to become the norm by 2030 and 2050. The data produced has a range of potential applications, from geohazard assessments to the built environment and infrastructure, to agri-informatic modelling of agricultural crops, as well as modelling for 'future-proofing' of buildings against predicted climate change by example. It is anticipated that the datasets presented from this IAA will be of benefit to a range of end-user stakeholders. One example is in the insurance, reinsurance and water utility sectors, where modelling of future impacts of climate change are conducted. Recent research has suggested this data will likely prove of use for County Councils and municipal authorities, for example in the allocation of targeted road maintenance funding, particularly on local-authority owned highways. Rail network operators, having faced a number of embankment failures, and track undulations as a result of shrink/swell activity are also likely to benefit from this research. The soil moisture deficit scenarios produced could help such organisations better manage geotechnical assets and vegetation management of susceptible slopes and soils. Cranfield’s School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood (SEEA) manage and operate the Natural Perils Directory (NPD). The NPD is a widely used geohazard thematic dataset portraying vulnerabilities arising from soil-climate responses to long-term climate change. NPD will incorporate directly the datasets produced and described here.Item Open Access The impact of soils, weather and trees on water infrastructure failure.(Cranfield University, 2018-09) North, Matthew Robert; Farewell, Timothy; Hallett, StephenThe uninterrupted supply and reliable distribution of drinking water is fundamental in a modern society; however, water pipelines are subject to a range of operational and environmental factors which can lead to asset failure. For the privatised water-sector in the UK, utility companies are moving towards the deployment of statistical models for proactive asset management. For some companies, statistical models have facilitated the migration away from static annual burst targets, to targets which are dynamic and adjusted to observed environmental conditions. There is an increasing need for the development of accurate pipeline failure prediction models to support asset management and regulatory reporting. This thesis evaluates several quantitative measures to improve current methods of pipeline failure prediction. The aim of this thesis is to establish the impact of soils, weather and trees on water infrastructure failure and to develop a series of material-specific drinking water pipeline failure models for an entire distribution network. A quantitative assessment investigating the impact of data cleaning on the attained model error of a series of previously developed models was conducted. Material-specific variable selection and step-wise modelling approaches was used to construct a series of improved statistical models, which have an increased representation of the environmental factors leading to pipeline failure. A detailed national tree inventory was investigated for its use in enhancing pipeline failure predictions and for calculating failure rates of different pipe materials under varying soil shrink swell and tree density conditions. The value in creating separate winter and summer pipeline failure models was also evaluated, to increase representation of the highly seasonal nature of pipeline failure. Finally, a satellite approach was used to generate soil-related land surface deformation measurements across a regional area was investigated. The result is a series of enhanced statistical models for the prediction of water pipeline failure and a greater understanding into the environmental drivers leading to asset failure.Item Open Access Soil impacts on UK infrastructure: current and future climate(Institution of Civil Engineers, 2014-08-01) Pritchard, Oliver G.; Hallett, Stephen H.; Farewell, TimothyThis paper undertakes a critical review of the literature concerning mechanisms and impacts of soil-related geohazards to UK infrastructure. The country is predicted to have drier, hotter summers and wetter, warmer winters that in turn will increase the magnitude and frequency of many soil-related geohazards – predominantly due to changes in soil moisture. Probabilistic assessment will be required given the inherent uncertainty in assessing chronic soil hazards. The aim of this paper is to recommend a national framework methodology to aid the management of future risks posed by soil geohazards to UK infrastructure. The framework will help to prioritise ground investigations in high-risk areas, help to design suitable mitigation measures and encapsulate expert knowledge to interpret risk.Item Open Access Soil legacy data rescue via GlobalSoilMap and other international and national initiatives(Elsevier, 2017-06-15) Arrouays, Dominique; Leenaars, Johan G. B.; Richer-de-Forges, Anne C.; Adhikari, Kabindra; Ballabio, Cristiano; Greve, Mogens; Grundy, Mike; Guerrero, Eliseo; Hempel, Jon; Hengl, Tomislav; Heuvelink, Gerard; Batjes, Niels; Carvalho, Eloi; Hartemink, Alfred; Hewitt, Alan; Hong, Suk-Young; Krasilnikov, Pavel; Lagacherie, Philippe; Lelyk, Glen; Libohova, Zamir; Lilly, Allan; McBratney, Alex; McKenzie, Neil; Vasquez, Gustavo M.; Mulder, Vera Leatitia; Minasny, Budiman; Montanarella, Luca; Odeh, Inakwu; Padarian, Jose; Poggio, Laura; Roudier, Pierre; Saby, Nicolas; Savin, Igor; Searle, Ross; Solbovoy, Vladimir; Thompson, James; Smith, Scott; Sulaeman, Yiyi; Vintila, Ruxandra; Viscarra Rossel, Raphael; Wilson, Peter; Zhang, Gan-Lin; Swerts, Martine; Oorts, Katrien; Karklins, Aldis; Feng, Liu; Ibelles Navarro, Alexandro R.; Levin, Arkadiy; Laktionova, Tetiana; Dell'Acqua, Martin; Suvannang, Nopmanee; Ruam, Waew; Prasad, Jagdish; Patil, Nitin; Husnjak, Stjepan; Pásztor, László; Okx, Joop; Hallett, Stephen H.; Keay, Caroline; Farewell, Timothy; Lilja, Harri; Juilleret, Jérôme; Marx, Simone; Takata, Yusuke; Kazuyuki, Yagi; Mansuy, Nicolas; Panagos, Panos; van Liedekerke, Mark; Skalsky, Rastislav; Sobocka, Jaroslava; Kobza, Josef; Eftekhari, Kamran; Kacem Alavipanah, Seyed; Moussadek, Rachid; Badraoui, Mohamed; Da Silva, Mayesse; Paterson, Garry; da Conceição Gonçalves, Maria; Theocharopoulos, Sid; Yemefack, Martin; Tedou, Silatsa; Vrscaj, Borut; Grob, Urs; Kozák, Josef; Boruvka, Lubos; Dobos, Endre; Taboada, Miguel; Moretti, Lucas; Rodriguez, DarioLegacy soil data have been produced over 70 years in nearly all countries of the world. Unfortunately, data, information and knowledge are still currently fragmented and at risk of getting lost if they remain in a paper format. To process this legacy data into consistent, spatially explicit and continuous global soil information, data are being rescued and compiled into databases. Thousands of soil survey reports and maps have been scanned and made available online. The soil profile data reported by these data sources have been captured and compiled into databases. The total number of soil profiles rescued in the selected countries is about 800,000. Currently, data for 117, 000 profiles are compiled and harmonized according to GlobalSoilMap specifications in a world level database (WoSIS). The results presented at the country level are likely to be an underestimate. The majority of soil data is still not rescued and this effort should be pursued. The data have been used to produce soil property maps. We discuss the pro and cons of top-down and bottom-up approaches to produce such maps and we stress their complementarity. We give examples of success stories. The first global soil property maps using rescued data were produced by a top-down approach and were released at a limited resolution of 1 km in 2014, followed by an update at a resolution of 250 m in 2017. By the end of 2020, we aim to deliver the first worldwide product that fully meets the GlobalSoilMap specifications.Item Open Access Soil-related geohazard assessment for climate-resilient UK infrastructure(Cranfield University, 2015-11) Pritchard, Oliver G.; Hallett, Stephen; Farewell, TimothyUK (United Kingdom) infrastructure networks are fundamental for maintaining societal and economic wellbeing. With infrastructure assets predominantly founded in the soil layer (< 1.5m below ground level) they are subject to a range of soil-related geohazards. A literature review identified that geohazards including, clay-related subsidence, sand erosion and soil corrosivity have exerted significant impacts on UK infrastructure to date; often resulting in both long-term degradation and ultimately structural failure of particular assets. Climate change projections suggest that these geohazards, which are themselves driven by antecedent weather conditions, are likely to increase in magnitude and frequency for certain areas of the UK through the 21st century. Despite this, the incorporation of climate data into geohazard models has seldom been undertaken and never on a national scale for the UK. Furthermore, geohazard risk assessment in UK infrastructure planning policy is fragmented and knowledge is often lacking due to the complexity of modelling chronic hazards in comparison to acute phenomenon such as flooding. With HM Government's recent announcement of £50 million planned infrastructure investment and capital projects, the place of climate resilient infrastructure is increasingly pertinent. The aim of this thesis is therefore to establish whether soil-related geohazard assessments have a role in ensuring climate-resilient UK infrastructure. Soil moisture projections were calculated using probabilistic weather variables derived from a high-resolution version of the UKCP09 (UK Climate Projections2009) weather generator. These were then incorporated into a geohazard model to predict Great Britain's (GB) subsidence hazard for the future scenarios of 2030 (2020-2049) and 2050 (2040-2069) as well as the existing climatic baseline (1961-1990). Results suggest that GB is likely to be subject to increased clay-related subsidence in future, particularly in the south east of England. This thesis has added to scientific understanding through the creation of a novel, national-scale assessment of clay subsidence risk, with future assessments undertaken to 2050. This has been used to help create a soil- informed maintenance strategy for improving the climate resilience of UK local roads, based on an extended case study utilising road condition data for the county of Lincolnshire, UK. Finally, a methodological framework has been created, providing a range of infrastructure climate adaptation stakeholders with a method for incorporating geohazard assessments, informed by climate change projections, into asset management planning and design of new infrastructure. This research also highlights how infrastructure networks are becoming increasingly interconnected, particularly geographically, and therefore even minor environmental shocks arising from soil-related geohazards can cause significant cascading failures of multiple infrastructure networks. A local infrastructure hotspot analysis methodology and case-study is provided.