Browsing by Author "Ellis, Darren"

Now showing 1 - 15 of 15
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    An assessment of Turkish Airlines: geographical location, fleet mix & international network
    (Elsevier, 2022-11-18) Uyan, Berkcan; Ellis, Darren; Pagliari, Romano
    Istanbul-based Turkish Airlines (THY) is a major global carrier serving more international destinations than any other airline in the world, mostly from its new airport hub (IST). This paper aims to unpack and better understand this achievement by focusing on the airline's geographical location, fleet mix and international network scope. Although a range of other key metrics and/or factors could also generate valuable insights about THY, these three are particularly salient when it comes to explaining the number of international destinations it serves. Geopolitics would be a strong contender for inclusion here as well, although core competitors in the Gulf region and elsewhere share similar international relations, therefore, minimising the key insights available in this regard. The paper adopts a single case study approach whereby a deeper level assessment is made of the airline, including how these three core focal areas contribute to its global reach. Located at the point where Europe and Asia meet, Türkiye is home to over 80 million people, and has a significant domestic air market along with a thriving tourism industry. Operating a sizeable mixed fleet of narrow-body and wide-body aircraft, THY is able to capitalise on its home-base proximity to Europe, and its strong links further afield to North America and elsewhere, to create an extensive global network. Future potential growth exists into currently unserved air markets such as Australia (and the Southwest Pacific more widely), along with the expansion of its existing network in terms of capacity and frequency levels.
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    Benchmarking global carrier status in the airline industry
    (Purdue University Press, 2021-12-31) Ellis, Darren; Leib, Steven
    Over the past decade or so and through the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, a number of airlines have risen to global prominence in Asia (especially China), the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and elsewhere. As each develops, many industry observers are questioning the extent to which these airlines will rival current industry heavyweights around the world. This paper aims to provide a basis for assessing what constitutes a major global carrier in the airline industry, including the likelihood of being so in the foreseeable future. Three key metrics are employed to gauge the global reach of an airline and its corresponding major global carrier status and rank: wide-bodied fleet size, the number of international destinations flown to, and continents served (squared for adequate amplification). Data are sourced from the Centre for Aviation (CAPA) airline database. The paper concludes that major global carrier status for an airline is best viewed in relation to key competitors including the ranking location of those directly above and below any given airline. This ranking approach is therefore about insights generated and is not premised on precise locations on a leader board.
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    Buying airline partners: parallels between Swissair and Etihad Airways
    (Elsevier, 2023-12-28) Ellis, Darren; Foster, Andy
    During the 1990s Swissair adopted an alliance business model through the purchase of minority stakes in a number of carriers. Etihad Airways followed a similar approach from 2011 through until the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, building equity stakes in a range of carriers in Europe, and the Indo-Pacific region. This paper uses comparative case study analysis, and argues that making substantial equity investments in second-tier (often loss-making or debt-laden) airlines increases risk without offsetting benefits. Viable alternatives to equity stakes exist including code-sharing, strategic partnerships and global alliance membership, that generate equally attractive customer perceived benefits, while avoiding the need for financial capital being applied less efficiently. Furthermore, this paper argues that profitability is not directly linked to alliance membership. Return on investment is arguably even harder to achieve when the alliance is based on a small selection of second tier carriers. The paper concludes with several future scenarios that could play out for airlines contemplating equity-based alliances, and identifies membership of one of the larger global alliances as the probable better option.
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    A comparative strategic analysis of China Airlines and EVA Air
    (Elsevier, 2022-11-18) Ellis, Darren; Jimenez, Edgar
    The two biggest airlines in Taiwan – China Airlines and EVA Air – face a wide range of similar strategic opportunities and challenges, while also pursuing considerably different strategic priorities in some key areas. This paper conducts a comparative strategic analysis of these two airlines by considering the key success factors (KSFs) of fleet mix and size, international partnerships and cooperation, network scope and global reach, and brand awareness and loyalty. Despite geopolitical restrictions, both carriers have developed sizable fleets, networks and partnerships with a global ambition, effectively creating a duopoly that controls half of the passenger market and almost two-thirds of the cargo market in Taiwan. Their brands are recognized outside Taiwan, although EVA Air enjoys slightly better perception of quality by rating companies and passengers. Yet, external realities have greater potential to determine each airline's future strategic trajectory, rather than internal KSFs. Both airlines help to illustrate the global connectivity that the airline industry can foster and promote, and each provides a counterbalance to regional tensions and divisions by doing so.
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    Developing a strategic framework of analysis for air transport management
    (Elsevier, 2020-12-04) Ellis, Darren
    This paper looks at the development and use of a strategic level framework of analysis tailored to air transportation management studies. Generic strategic frameworks designed for industry level analysis do not always capture the core factors and forces impacting and shaping the contemporary global aviation industry. The proposed strategic framework covers three key categories; namely politics, economics and geography, resulting in the acronym PEG. Three of the most commonly employed generic strategic frameworks in management research, including air transport management, are SWOT, PEST (PESTE/PESTEL) and Porter’s five forces. However, these do not readily encourage all three of the PEG categories, with geography not explicitly featuring in any of these generic frameworks. Where an airline is based in the world matters in global aviation as the industry is underpinned by the bilateral system – a bundle of restrictions and limitations covering airline nationality/citizenship, ownership, control and home base requirements. The paper concludes by contending that PEG is an easy to remember and apply strategic framework for air transportation management studies and builds on the strengths and possibilities of generic strategic frameworks, but in a manner which helps to ensure that key industry-specific drivers and forces are brought to the fore. Figuratively speaking, the PEG strategic framework is situated at the center of the global aviation industry, rather than having to be retrofitted or modified to more closely align with the sector.
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    Expert insights into the impact of aeropolitics on regional air market integration in ASEAN
    (Elsevier, 2023-12-28) Zuan, Haris; Ellis, Darren; Pagliari, Romano
    By 2015 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) planned to achieve regional air transport liberalisation through the ASEAN Single Aviation Market (ASAM) to enhance connectivity, economic development and regional integration. However, progress on ASAM has not met initial expectations. To explore the factors influencing air market integration in ASEAN this paper focuses on the concept of aeropolitics, as the literature suggests it plays a significant role in shaping regional integration. A survey (n=50), supported by semi-structured in-depth interviews (n=15), were conducted amongst experts in Southeast Asia to examine the impact of key aeropolitical factors on regional air market integration in ASEAN. Respondents agreed on the importance of factors such as national interest, the influence of political elites with vested interests, regional identity and the involvement of superpowers. By examining experts' perceptions, this paper uncovers complexities and challenges related to the aeropolitical dynamics in ASEAN. Results unearthed a range of key insights and provide the basis for further research and policy development. Centrally, ASEAN is not following the European model with its supranational top-down approach, but rather is incrementally standardising and harmonising air transport across the region based on consensus and mutual interest under the umbrella of the ‘ASEAN way’. Progress for ASAM to date has been more than critics admit, yet less than supporters would like. Within these mixed results lies a story of regional integration that may hold important insights for other regions of the world.
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    Geopolitics and the ASEAN single aviation market: Aspirations versus realities
    (Elsevier, 2021-12-08) Zuan, Haris; Ellis, Darren; Pagliari, Romano
    This paper aims to explore and identify the key geopolitical barriers and opportunities to greater regional integration amongst the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) member states by examining the case study of the ASEAN single aviation market (ASAM). This paper is based on an ongoing doctoral research project covering the topic. To date, ASEAN has implemented substantial liberalisation of its regional air transport market via an open skies policy, included as part of the ASEAN Community Project. This aims to not just foster connectivity and economic development, but ultimately to contribute to the building of a regional identity. While there has been some evident progress since the launch of the initiative in the region, the open skies agreement promoted as ASAM has not gained as much traction as projected, nor achieved its core stated aim of creating an effective single air transport market; a stated goal it initially planned to achieve by the end of 2015. Most of the literature explaining the divergence between key aspirations and realities in ASAM focuses on the economic regulation of international air transport in the region, and typically discusses these core considerations from the perspectives of law and policy. There are few substantial scholarly works that incorporate geopolitics, aeropolitics and/or diplomacy, all of which are important variables closely linked to the field of international relations. The geopolitical perspective on ASAM is still largely understudied, and this paper and the evolving research underpinning it, are intended to contribute to that identified gap.
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    Insights from a mixed-methods Delphi study into the global airline industry
    (Inderscience, 2022-01-24) Ellis, Darren
    This paper looks at the key methodological and design insights gained from a five-stage mixed methods Delphi study investigating the global airline industry's likely future strategic trajectory. The exploratory study sequentially unfolded across a workshop, test/pilot survey, main survey 1, main survey 2, and finally in-depth interviews. The study revealed the important roles each stage played in gathering a wide array of salient data and informing subsequent stages and analysis. This research journey demonstrated the versatility available when mixing quantitative and qualitative methods in a Delphi study covering air transport, and how each can reinforce and complement the other. This is particularly relevant when investigating emerging air markets, where existing data are either limited or non-existent. Although a geographically dispersed multidisciplinary cohort of participants contributed to this study, more expert voices from under-researched emerging regions and air markets are evidently required for future research into this still expanding global industry.
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    Integrated multimodal airport operations for efficient passenger flow management: Two case studies
    (Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences, 2022-12-06) Rothe, Henrik; Jimenez Perez, Edgar; Moxon, Rich; Ellis, Darren; et al.,
    Predictive models and decision support tools allow information sharing, common situational awareness and real-time collaborative decision-making between airports and ground transport stakeholders. To support this general goal, IMHOTEP has developed a set of models able to anticipate the evolution of an airport’s passenger flows within the day of operations. This is to assess the operational impact of different management measures on the airport processes and the ground transport system. Two models covering the passenger flows inside the terminal and of passengers accessing and egressing the airport have been integrated to provide a holistic view of the passenger journey from door-to-gate and vice versa. This paper describes IMHOTEP’s application at two case study airports, Palma de Mallorca (PMI) and London City (LCY), at Proof of Concept (PoC-level) assessing impact and service improvements for passengers, airport operators and other key stakeholders. For the first time one measurable process is created to open up opportunities for better communication across all associated stakeholders. Ultimately the successful implementation will lead to a reduction of the carbon footprint of the passenger journey by better use of existing facilities and surface transport services, and the delay or omission of additional airport facility capacities.
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    Internal versus external European air market realities: the competitive divide
    (Springer Open, 2020-03-24) Ellis, Darren
    Background This paper looks at how ongoing attempts to improve air market competitiveness in Europe are challenged by the differing internal and external realities that exist. Europe’s internal multilateral single air market has encouraged the proliferation of pan-European airlines unhindered by national borders, which have stimulated increased competition and driven down airfare prices. Meanwhile, externally the bilateral system continues to dominate the wider global airline industry and a number of countries still prefer to negotiate air access with individual European countries. Methods Data from a five stage mixed-method Delphi study underpin the paper. Qualitative data, collected at a first stage brainstorming workshop and during final stage in-depth interviews, were thematically analysed to locate key and sub-themes. Quantitative survey data were collected across the remaining stages and were statistically analysed with mostly t-tests and chi-square tests of association to a 95% confidence level. Results The key theme transferability of the European regional single air market emerged from the study data; supported by the three sub-themes EU regional model, extraterritoriality and North Atlantic single air market. Conclusions Europe remains the multilateral exception to the general rule in international aviation that bilateralism is the norm. Despite efforts to address this competitive divide, aeropowers like China and Russia are reluctant to embrace extensive change, while major European flag carriers resist unfettered competition from outside the bloc.
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    The role of Austrian Airlines within the Lufthansa Group
    (Elsevier, 2023-12-28) Mayer, Robert; Ellis, Darren; Rothe, Henrik; Tschannen, Tim
    Austrian Airlines is a relatively small but important part of the Lufthansa Group, and is to some extent overshadowed by its much larger German owner, together with its higher profile Swiss International Airlines compatriot and neighbour. Even so, Austrian is not as small as the group's other network carrier member Brussels Airlines. The group's low-cost point-to-point carrier Eurowings is not closely considered in this paper as the primary focus here is on a network carrier analysis, with Austrian positioned as the main case study subject. In this regard, Austrian delivers a hub-and-spoke network out of Vienna International Airport (VIE) which both compliments and strengthens the overall group's scale, scope and density. Austrian contributes a substantial boost to the Lufthansa Group in Central and Eastern Europe, though this has been reduced as a result of the ongoing war in Ukraine, including Russian air space closure. Austrian's future prospects are closely aligned with events in Ukraine, with an end to the war likely to see the airline well positioned to resume services quite quickly to Ukraine, Belarus and Russia. The study here finds that Austrian Airlines clearly maintains a symbiotic relationship with its parent company, rather than a dependency on the wider group for its survival, though it would likely be a smaller airline if it was not part of the Lufthansa Group. They compliment each other.
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    A strategic analysis of Saudia using the PEG framework
    (2021-12-08) Aquilina-Spagnol, Clive; Ellis, Darren
    This paper conducts a strategic analysis of Saudia using a recent strategic framework of analysis developed specifically for air transport; that is, the politics, economics and geography (PEG) framework. The motivation to analyse Saudia stems from the ongoing doctoral research the lead author is currently carrying out which is focused on investigating the strategic trajectories of the Middle East big three (MEB3). In this study Saudia has been identified as a potential key competitor which can exert pressure on the future trajectories of the traditional big three Gulf carriers, Emirates, Etihad and Qatar. Given PEG is a novel framework developed specifically for the airline industry, and is simple and straight forward to use, it is considered a ‘best fit’ for Saudia, particularly when primary data about the airline is yet to be collected. Saudia is also heavily influenced by geopolitics. The analysis in this paper is structured based firstly on the category of politics, then geography and finally economics. The outcome of the first two categories demonstrates the extent to which politics and geography are more important to the airline than economics, as far as strategic direction is concerned. They also reveal that the airline may even enjoy better fundamentals than the MEB3 and, given the new economic vision of the Kingdom, the possibility of overshadowing one of the MEB3 is not excluded in the medium term. Porter’s five forces of competition strategic framework of analysis was also used when analysing Saudia, particularly in relation to the PEG category of economics. It is recommended that a PEG analysis of Saudia is supported by further analysis through other strategic frameworks to better uncover key factors and forces shaping the airline’s strategic future.
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    The strategic context of the three major Gulf carriers
    (Elsevier, 2020-01-10) Ellis, Darren
    This paper investigates the still evolving strategic trajectories and context of the three major Gulf carriers Emirates Airline, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways. The paper utilizes data from a Delphi study conducted by the author in 2013 and 2014 which looked in part at the likely strategic future prospects of these three carriers. The study findings are considered in the current strategic context of all three carriers five years later in mid-2019. The findings of this analysis reveal that the wild card scenario of a blockage of Qatar by its neighbors was not identified in the study; however, many of the key findings and forecasts around liberalization, protectionism, alliance membership and global industry impacts all retain valuable and salient insights into their strategic contexts. This paper helps to illustrate the inherent challenges that accompany strategic forecasting, particularly for a dynamic industry like global aviation where geopolitics plays a central role. This is particularly true of emerging air markets that are not data rich, static or readily predictable. This paper concludes that the key industry insights gained from a strategic forecasting exercise such as this study outweigh concerns and issues of forecast accuracy. Much can be learned when forecast accuracy is placed into a secondary position behind industry insights gained. This is certainly the case when the three major Gulf carriers are the prime focus.
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    Viewing the Middle East big three (MEB3) carriers as heterogeneous
    (Elsevier, 2020-12-04) Aquilina-Spagnol, Clive; Ellis, Darren; Pagliari, Romano
    This paper considers the Middle East big three (MEB3) carriers – Emirates Airline, Etihad Airways and Qatar Airways – from the perspective of heterogeneous strategic decisions and future trajectories. This paper is based on an ongoing doctoral research project covering the topic. The rise of the MEB3 and their growing global impacts have seen the three major carriers very often analysed together, with little scholarly focus on differences and individual airline strategic decision-making. Emirates has typically dominated discussion and analysis, not surprising given its sheer size and global influence, but with Etihad and Qatar simply presented as imitators and followers alongside. Likewise, the ongoing blockade of Qatar by neighbouring countries including the United Arab Emirates (UAE), has tended to be viewed as a regional political dispute and not as something likely to fundamentally change the MEB3’s apparent collective strategic goals and aspirations. The strategic analysis underpinning this paper is predicated on events and trends up to the end of 2019 before the COVID-19 pandemic became a global challenge. Each of the MEB3 is analysed individually and against a set of core strategic forces and factors in order to identify the extent to which there is homogeneity and heterogeneity in their respective strategic and business propositions. These carriers are also compared with each other; this allows for an evaluation of the strategic path of each airline, as opposed to mere profiling. This strategic analysis de-links each individual airline from the typical group analysis which occurs when the MEB3 acronym is employed and it critically challenges a common analytical approach which tends to perceive each carrier as part of a homogenous bloc. Key insights surrounding strategic differences are arguably as salient as when derived from viewing all three carriers as essentially the same or similar.
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    Vision 2030 and prospects for network airlines in Saudi Arabia
    (Elsevier, 2023-12-28) Jimenez, Edgar; Ellis, Darren; Uyan, Berkcan
    The air transport industry in Saudi Arabia is experiencing rapid growth of late, fuelled in large part by the Kingdom's Vision 2030 aspirations and national development plan. This ambitious national vision seeks to diversify the Kingdom's economy, and in the process, develop and expand a wide range of industry and public sectors. Central to these plans is air transport, including not only the building of new airports and related transport infrastructure, along with expanding the wider travel and hospitality sectors, but also the launch of a new network airline in 2025 – Riyadh Air. This new airline will join current national flag carrier Saudia, and together they will play central roles in growing both the domestic and international air markets in the Kingdom, mainly out of the two main hubs Riyadh Airport (RUH) and Jeddah Airport (JED). The paper here aims to assess this coming network carrier duopoly, including the future prospects for both airlines as they seek to compete in a region, and indeed globally, against well-established legacy and flag carriers. Evidently, the future of network airlines in KSA could very well shape and determine prospects for the industry more generally for decades to come.