Browsing by Author "Davies, Gareth J."

Now showing 1 - 8 of 8
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    Better environmental decision making - Recent progress and future trends.
    (Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2008-08-01T00:00:00Z) Pollard, Simon J. T.; Davies, Gareth J.; Coley, F. J. S.; Lemon, Mark
    Recent trends in risk-based decision making are reviewed in relation to novel developments in comparative risk analysis, strategic risk analysis, weight of evidence frameworks, and participative decision making. Delivery of these innovations must take account of organisational capabilities in risk management and the institutional culture that implements decision on risk. We stress the importance of managing risk knowledge within organisations, and emphasise the use of core criteria for effective risk-based decisions by reference to decision process, implementation and the security of strategic added value.
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    Carbon Brainprint Case Study: intelligent buildings
    (2011-07-31T00:00:00Z) Parsons, David J.; Chatterton, Julia C.; Clements-Croome, Derek; Elmualim, Abbas; Darby, Howard; Yearly, Tom; Davies, Gareth J.
    It is estimated that non-domestic buildings were responsible for 18% of UK total greenhousegas emissions (582 Mt CO2e/year) in 2010. Of non-domestic building emissions, 34%(36 Mt CO2e/year) was due to lighting, office equipment and catering and 46%(49 Mt CO2e/year) was due to heating. A team consisting of researchers at the University of Reading, the University's FacilitiesManagement Directorate and Newera Controls Ltd. conducted two separate investigations tomeasure and demonstrate the potential for two important and complementary approaches inachieving energy efficiency and greenhouse gas emission reductions in buildings. The firstfocused on influencing user behaviour, in an office building on the main campus. The secondconsidered an interventionist approach in an accommodation block at the Henley BusinessSchool using intelligent monitoring and control systems. To date, the first investigation has demonstrated a 20% saving in lighting, office equipment andcatering energy use, largely through user awareness and behaviour change. The second has indicated that savings in heating energy of the order of 24% can be achievedby enhancement of legacy Building Management Systems (BMS) using a Building EnergyManagement System (BEMS). There is also scope for further savings if the BEMS system isextended to other services such as lighting.
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    Carbon brainprint – An estimate of the intellectual contribution of research institutions to reducing greenhouse gas emissions
    (Elsevier, 2015-05-07) Chatteron, Julia C.; Parsons, David J.; Nicholls, John R.; Longhurst, Philip J.; Bernon, Mike; Palmer, Andrew; Brennan, Feargal P.; Kolios, Athanasios; Wilson, Ian; Ishiyama, Edward; Clements-Croome, Derek; Elmualim, Abbas; Darby, Howard; Yearly, Tom; Davies, Gareth J.
    Research and innovation have considerable, currently unquantified potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by, for example, increasing energy efficiency. Furthermore, the process of knowledge transfer in itself can have a significant impact on reducing emissions, by promoting awareness and behavioural change. The concept of the ‘carbon brainprint’ was proposed to convey the intellectual contribution of higher education institutions to the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by other parties through research and teaching/training activities. This paper describes an investigation of the feasibility of quantifying the carbon brainprint, through six case studies. The potential brainprint of higher education institutes is shown to be significant: up to 500 kt CO2e/year for one project. The most difficult aspect is attributing the brainprint among multiple participants in joint projects.
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    Evidence and belief in regulatory decisions - Incorporating expected utility into decision modelling
    (Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2012-12-31T00:00:00Z) Li, J.; Davies, Gareth J.; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Bai, R.; Rocks, Sophie A.; Pollard, Simon J. T.
    Recent changes in the assessment and management of risks has had the effect that greater importance has been placed on relationships between individuals and within groups to inform decision making. In this paper, we provide the theoretical underpinning for an expected utility approach to decision-making. The approach, which is presented using established evidence support logic (TESLA™), integrating the expected utilities in the forming of group decisions. The rationale and basis are described and illustrated through a hypothetical decision context of options for the disposal of animal carcasses that accumulate during disease outbreaks. The approach forms the basis for exploring the richness of risk-based decisions, and representing individual beliefs about the sufficiency of evidence they may advance in support of hypothese
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    Optimising risk reduction: An expected utility approach for marginal risk reduction during regulatory decision making
    (Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2009-11-30T00:00:00Z) Li, Jiawei W.; Pollard, Simon J. T.; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Davies, Gareth J.
    In practice, risk and uncertainty are essentially unavoidable in many regulation processes. Regulators frequently face a risk-benefit trade-off since zero risk is neither practicable nor affordable. Although it is accepted that cost-benefit analysis is important in many scenarios of risk management, what role it should play in a decision process is still controversial. One criticism of cost-benefit analysis is that decision makers should consider marginal benefits and costs, not present ones, in their decision making. In this paper, we investigate the problem of regulatory decision making under risk by applying expected utility theory and present a new approach of cost-benefit analysis. Directly taking into consideration the reduction of the risks, this approach achieves marginal cost- benefit analysis. By applying this approach, the optimal regulatory decision that maximizes the marginal benefit of risk reduction can be considered. This provides a transparent and reasonable criterion for stakeholders involved in the regulatory activity. An example of evaluating seismic retrofitting alternatives is provided to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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    Regulators as 'agents': power and personality in risk regulation and a role for agent-based simulation
    (Taylor & Francis, 2010-12-31T00:00:00Z) Davies, Gareth J.; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Li, Jin; Charnley, Fiona; Pollard, Simon J. T.
    We critically examine how evidence and knowledge are brokered between the various actors (agents) in regulatory decisions on risk. Following a precis of context and regulatory process, we explore the role power and personality might play as evidence is synthesised and used to inform risk decisions, providing a review of the relevant literature from applied psychology, agent-based simulation and regulatory science. We make a case for the adoption of agent- based tools for addressing the sufficiency of evidence and resolving uncertainty in regulatory decisions. Referring to other environmental applications of agent- based decision-making, we propose how an agent model might represent power structures and personality characteristics with the attending implications for the brokering of regulatory science. This critical review has implications for the structuring of evidence that informs environmental decisions and the personal traits required of modern regulators operating in facilitative regulatory settings.
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    Regulators as agents: modelling personality and power as evidence is brokered to support decisions on environmental risk
    (2014-01-01T00:00:00Z) Davies, Gareth J.; Kendall, Graham; Soane, Emma; Li, J.; Rocks, Sophie A.; Jude, Simon R.; Pollard, Simon J. T.
    Complex regulatory decisions about risk rely on the brokering of evidence between providers and recipients, and involve personality and power relationships that influence the confidence that recipients may place in the sufficiency of evidence and, therefore, the decision outcome. We explore these relationships in an agent-based model; drawing on concepts from environmental risk science, decision psychology and computer simulation. A two-agent model that accounts for the sufficiency of evidence is applied to decisions about salt intake, animal carcass disposal and radioactive waste. A dynamic version of the model assigned personality traits to agents, to explore their receptivity to evidence. Agents with 'aggressor' personality sets were most able to imbue fellow agents with enhanced receptivity (with 'avoider' personality sets less so) and clear confidence in the sufficiency of evidence. In a dynamic version of the model, when both recipient and provider were assigned the 'aggressor' personality set, this resulted in 10 successful evidence submissions in 71 days, compared with 96 days when both agents were assigned the 'avoider' personality set. These insights suggest implications for improving the efficiency and quality of regulatory decision making by understanding the role of personality and power.
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    Towards an agent-based model for risk-based regulation
    (Cranfield University, 2010-09) Davies, Gareth J.; Pollard, Simon J. T.; Rocks, S.
    Risk-based regulation has grown rapidly as a component of Government decision making, and as such, the need for an established evidence-based framework for decisions about risk has become the new mantra. However, the process of brokering scientific evidence is poorly understood and there is a need to improve the transparency of this brokering process and decisions made. This thesis attempts to achieve this by using agent-based simulation to model the influence that power structures and participating personalities has on the brokering of evidence and thereby the confidence-building exercise that characterises risk-based regulation. As a prerequisite to the adoption of agent-based techniques for simulating decisions under uncertainty, this thesis provides a critical review of the influence power structure and personality have on the brokering of scientific evidence that informs risk decisions. Three case studies, each representing a different perspective on risk-based regulation are presented: nuclear waste disposal, the disposal of avian-influenza infected animal carcases and the reduction of dietary salt intake. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with an expert from each case study, and the logical sequence in which decisions were made was mapped out and used to inform the development of an agent-based simulation model. The developed agent-based model was designed to capture the character of the brokering process by transparently setting out how evidence is transmitted from the provider of evidence to the final decision maker. It comprises of two agents, a recipient and provider of evidence, and draws upon a historic knowledge base to permit the user to vary components of the interacting agents and of the decision-making procedure, demonstrating the influence that power structure and personality has on agent receptivity and the confidence attached to a number of different lines of evidence. This is a novel step forward because it goes beyond the scope of current risk management frameworks, for example, permitting the user to explore the influence that participants have in weighing and strengthening different lines of evidence and the impact this has on the final decision outcome.