Browsing by Author "Corstanje, Ron"
Now showing 1 - 12 of 12
Results Per Page
Sort Options
Item Open Access Emerging resilience metrics in an intensely managed ecological system(Elsevier, 2024-01-05) Toumasis, Nikolaos; Simms, Daniel; Rust, Will; Harris, Jim A.; White, John R.; Zawadzka, Joanna; Corstanje, RonThere is growing interest in understanding resilience of ecosystems because of the potential of abrupt and possibly irreversible shifts between alternative ecosystem states. Tipping points are observed in systems with strong positive feedback, providing early warning signals of potential instability. These points can be detected through metrics like critical slowing down (CSD), such as increased recovery time, variance, and autocorrelation. These indicators have been tested in laboratory experiments and field settings, ignoring trait changes. Here we present a long-term temporal analysis of several large, intensely monitored constructed wetlands, the Everglades Stormwater Treatment Areas (STAs), in which sudden changes in plant community composition have been observed. Using wavelet analysis, significant increases and decreases of variance properties (long-term flow data, water quality and nutrient TP loads) across these systems can indicate when and which STAs are less resilient to perturbations. In this study, continuous wavelet transform (CWT) was used to determine the periodicity of any cyclical activity in the data and to determine changes in autocorrelation and variance as measures of CSD. The change detection methods were used to find significant changes in variations and correlations across the time series. By employing these techniques, we were able to spot substantial shifts in model-observed wavelet correlation and model residual wavelet variance and thereby identify where these systems exhibit CSD. Although our analysis is limited to historical data, the proposed approach has practical value in that it identifies STAs that may be vulnerable to perturbation. The study also presents one of the few studies in which CSD is observed in practice rather than modelled in theory.Item Open Access Evidence of collaborative opportunities to ensure long-term sustainability in African farming(Elsevier, 2023-02-17) El Fartassi, Imane; Milne, Alice E.; El Alami, Rafiq; Rafiqi, Maryam; Hassall, Kirsty L.; Waine, Toby W.; Zawadzka, Joanna; Diarra, Alhousseine; Corstanje, RonFarmers face the challenge of increasing production to feed a growing population and support livelihoods, whilst also improving the sustainability and resilience of cropping systems. Understanding the key factors that influence farming management practices is crucial for determining farmers' adaptive capacity and willingness to engage in cooperative strategies. To that end, we investigated management practices that farmers adopt and the factors underlying farmers' decision-making. We also aimed to identify the constraints that impede the adoption of strategies perceived to increase farming resilience and to explore how the acceleration of technology adoption through cooperation could ensure the long-term sustainability of farming. Surveys were distributed to farming stakeholders and professionals who worked across the contrasting environments of Morocco. We used descriptive statistics and analysis by log-linear modelling to predict the importance of factors influencing farmers’ decision-making. The results show that influencing factors tended to cluster around environmental pressures, crop characteristics and water availability with social drivers playing a lesser role. Subsidies were also found to be an important factor in decision-making. Farming stakeholders generally believed that collaborative networks are likely to facilitate the adoption of sustainable agricultural practices. We conclude that farmers need both economic incentives and technical support to enhance their adaptive capacity as this can lessen the socioeconomic vulnerability inherent in arid and semi-arid regions.Item Open Access Evolution of green space under rapid urban expansion in Southeast Asian cities(MDPI, 2021-10-30) Muhamad Nor, Amal Najihah; Abdul Aziz, Hasifah; Nawawi, Siti Aisyah; Muhammad Jamil, Rohazaini; Abas, Muhamad Azahar; Hambali, Kamarul Ariffin; Yusoff, Abdul Hafidz; Ibrahim, Norfadhilah; Rafaai, Nur Hairunnisa; Corstanje, Ron; Harris, Jim A.; Grafius, Darren R.; Perotto-Baldivieso, Humberto L.Globally, rapid urban expansion has caused green spaces in urban areas to decline considerably. In this study, the rapid expansion of three Southeast Asia cities were considered, namely, Kuala Lumpur City, Malaysia; Jakarta, Indonesia; and Metro Manila, Philippines. This study evaluates the changes in spatial and temporal patterns of urban areas and green space structure in the three cities over the last two decades. Land use land cover (LULC) maps of the cities (1988/1989, 1999 and 2014) were developed based on 30-m resolution satellite images. The changes in the landscape and spatial structure were analysed using change detection, landscape metrics and statistical analysis. The percentage of green space in the three cities reduced in size from 45% to 20% with the rapid expansion of urban areas over the 25-year period. In Metro Manila and Jakarta, the proportion of green space converted to urban areas was higher in the initial 1989 to 1999 period than over the latter 1999 to 2014 period. Significant changes in green space structure were observed in Jakarta and Metro Manila. Green space gradually fragmented and became less connected and more unevenly distributed. These changes were not seen in Kuala Lumpur City. Overall, the impact of spatial structure of urban areas and population density on green space is higher in Jakarta and Metro Manila when this is compared to Kuala Lumpur. Thus, the results have the potential to clarify the relative contribution of green space structure especially for cities in Southeast Asia where only a few studies in urban areas have taken place.Item Open Access Exploring the role of hydrological pathways in modulating multi-annual climate teleconnection periodicities from UK rainfall to streamflow(European Geosciences Union, 2021-04-23) Rust, William; Cuthbert, Mark; Bloomfield, John; Corstanje, Ron; Howden, Nicholas; Holman, Ian P.An understanding of multi-annual behaviour in streamflow allows for better estimation of the risks associated with hydrological extremes. This can enable improved preparedness for streamflow-dependant services, such as freshwater ecology, drinking water supply and agriculture. Recently, efforts have focused on detecting relationships between long-term hydrological behaviour and oscillatory climate systems (such as the North Atlantic Oscillation – NAO). For instance, the approximate 7 year periodicity of the NAO has been detected in groundwater-level records in the North Atlantic region, providing potential improvements to the preparedness for future water resource extremes due to their repetitive, periodic nature. However, the extent to which these 7-year, NAO-like signals are propagated to streamflow, and the catchment processes that modulate this propagation, are currently unknown. Here, we show statistically significant evidence that these 7-year periodicities are present in streamflow (and associated catchment rainfall), by applying multi-resolution analysis to a large data set of streamflow and associated catchment rainfall across the UK. Our results provide new evidence for spatial patterns of NAO periodicities in UK rainfall, with areas of greatest NAO signal found in southwest England, south Wales, Northern Ireland and central Scotland, and show that NAO-like periodicities account for a greater proportion of streamflow variability in these areas. Furthermore, we find that catchments with greater subsurface pathway contribution, as characterised by the baseflow index (BFI), generally show increased NAO-like signal strength and that subsurface response times (as characterised by groundwater response time – GRT), of between 4 and 8 years, show a greater signal presence. Our results provide a foundation of understanding for the screening and use of streamflow teleconnections for improving the practice and policy of long-term streamflow resource managementItem Open Access Future restoration should enhance ecological complexity and emergent properties at multiple scales(Wiley, 2021-12-07) Bullock, James M.; Fuentes-Montemayor, Elisa; McCarthy, Ben; Park, Kirsty; Hails, Rosie S.; Woodcock, Ben A.; Watts, Kevin; Corstanje, Ron; Harris, Jim A.Ecological restoration has a paradigm of re-establishing ‘indigenous reference' communities. One resulting concern is that focussing on target communities may not necessarily create systems which function at a high level or are resilient in the face of ongoing global change. Ecological complexity – defined here, based on theory, as the number of components in a system and the number of connections among them – provides a complementary aim, which can be measured directly and has several advantages. Ecological complexity encompasses key ecosystem variables including structural heterogeneity, trophic interactions and functional diversity. Ecological complexity can also be assessed at the landscape scale, with metrics including β diversity, heterogeneity among habitat patches and connectivity. Thus, complexity applies, and can be measured, at multiple scales. Importantly, complexity is linked to system emergent properties, e.g. ecosystem functions and resilience, and there is evidence that both are enhanced by complexity. We suggest that restoration ecology should consider a new paradigm to restore complexity at multiple scales, in particular of individual ecosystems and across landscapes. A complexity approach can make use of certain current restoration methods but also encompass newer concepts such as rewilding. Indeed, a complexity goal might in many cases best be achieved by interventionist restoration methods. Incorporating complexity into restoration policies could be quite straightforward. Related aims such as enhancing ecosystem services and ecological resilience are to the fore in initiatives such as the Sustainable Development Goals and the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Implementation in policy and practice will need the development of complexity metrics that can be applied at both local and regional scales. Ultimately, the adoption of an ecological complexity paradigm will be based on an acceptance that the ongoing and unprecedented global environmental change requires new ways of doing restoration that is fit for the future.Item Open Access The importance of non-stationary multiannual periodicities in the North Atlantic Oscillation index for forecasting water resource drought(European Geosciences Union (EGU), 2022-05-11) Rust, William; Bloomfield, John P.; Cuthbert, Mark; Corstanje, Ron; Holman, Ian P.Drought forecasting and early warning systems for water resource extremes are increasingly important tools in water resource management in Europe where increased population density and climate change are expected to place greater pressures on water supply. In this context, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is often used to indicate future water resource behaviours (including droughts) over Europe, given its dominant control on winter rainfall totals in the North Atlantic region. Recent hydroclimate research has focused on the role of multiannual periodicities in the NAO in driving low frequency behaviours in some water resources, suggesting that notable improvements to lead-times in forecasting may be possible by incorporating these multiannual relationships. However, the importance of multiannual NAO periodicities for driving water resource behaviour, and the feasibility of this relationship for indicating future droughts, has yet to be assessed in the context of known non-stationarities that are internal to the NAO and its influence on European meteorological processes. Here we quantify the time–frequency relationship between the NAO and a large dataset of water resources records to identify key non-stationarities that have dominated multiannual behaviour of water resource extremes over recent decades. The most dominant of these is a 7.5-year periodicity in water resource extremes since approximately 1970 but which has been diminishing since 2005. Furthermore, we show that the non-stationary relationship between the NAO and European rainfall is clearly expressed at multiannual periodicities in the water resource records assessed. These multiannual behaviours are found to have modulated historical water resource anomalies to an extent that is comparable to the projected effects of a worst-case climate change scenario. Furthermore, there is limited systematic understanding in existing atmospheric research for non-stationarities in these periodic behaviours which poses considerable implications to existing water resource forecasting and projection systems, as well as the use of these periodic behaviours as an indicator of future water resource drought.Item Open Access A multistep approach to improving connectivity and co-use of spatial ecological networks in cities(Springer, 2021-01-12) Beaujean, Simon; Nor, Amal Najihah Muhamad; Brewer, Timothy R.; Zamorano, Juan Gallego; Dumitriu, Alex Cristina; Harris, Jim A.; Corstanje, RonContext Ecological networks are systems of interconnected components that support biodiversity, ecological processes and ecosystem services. Such structures play a crucial role for nature conservation and people well-being in anthropogenic landscapes. Assessing connectivity by using efficient models and metrics is a sine qua non condition to preserve and improve appropriately these ecological networks. Objectives This study aims to present a novel methodological approach to assess and model connectivity for species conservation (Bufo calamita; the natterjack toad) and human recreation in the city. Methods The study used a combination least cost and circuit models to identify priority corridors in the City of Liège, Belgium. Green areas, habitats and relevant movement parameters were derived based on existing studies around (i) the occurrence, ecology and biology of the natterjack toad and (ii) human behavioural studies on urban pedestrians. Combining the two models allowed the assessment of connectivity for both species via two different metrics visualised using priority corridors on maps. Results The connectivity assessments identified lack of connectivity as the potential route to extinction of natterjack toads at one of the source sites. Conclusions This study provides examples of how combining least cost and circuit models can contribute to the improvement of urban ecological networks and demonstrates the usefulness of such models for nature conservation and urban planningItem Open Access Non‐stationary control of the NAO on European rainfall and its implications for water resource management(Wiley, 2021-02-19) Rust, William; Bloomfield, John P.; Cuthbert, Mark O.; Corstanje, Ron; Holman, Ian P.Water resource forecasting generally centres on understanding hydrological variability over coming months or years, so that water managers can prepare for extremes such as droughts or floods (Chang & Guo, 2020; Hao et al., 2018). Some forecasting systems seek to project further into the future to allow long‐term planning of infrastructure and resilience to extremes and climate change (Svensson et al., 2015). These systems can rely directly or indirectly on outputs from Global Climate Models (GCMs; such as gridded reanalysis datasets) to forecast hydrological conditions (Bhatt & Mall, 2015; Ionita & Nagavciuc, 2020). In the North Atlantic region, in particular Western Europe, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is used as an indicator for hydrometeorological conditions given its leading control on winter rainfall totals (Hurrell & Deser, 2010; Scaife et al., 2008, 2014). A dipole of pressure anomalies over the North Atlantic, the NAO's positive phase (greater than average pressure gradient; NAO+) results in wetter conditions in northwest Europe with dryer conditions in southwest Europe (Rust et al., 2018; Trigo et al., 2004). Its negative phase (weaker than average pressure gradient; NAO−) results in the inverse effect on rainfall (Folland et al., 2015; and as shown by the correlation coefficients in Figure 1). Given this relationship, and, considering the role of winter rainfall variability in groundwater drought development (e.g., reduced winter recharge) and generation of late winter/early spring floods, the NAO offers a potential explanatory variable when understanding the behaviour of some hydrological extremes.Item Open Access The relationship between spatial configuration of urban parks and neighbourhood cooling in a humid subtropical city(Springer, 2024-02-14) Verma, Ravi; Zawadzka, Joanna Ewa; Garg, Pradeep Kumar; Corstanje, RonContext Urban parks are essential for maintaining aesthetics within cities and keeping their its energy balance by helping mitigate the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect through controlling ambient and land surface temperature (LST). Objectives To investigate the impact of cooling in terms of distance by variously configured urban parks of a humid subtropical city, using landscape metrics and open-source data. Methods Land use (LU) was obtained through maximum likelihood classification of 3 m resolution aerial RGB-NIR imagery supported by ground control points and park boundaries collected during field survey. LST at matching resolution was obtained through downscaling of Landsat-8 LST at 30/100m resolution, calculated with the Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE). Landscape metrics for patches of parks were calculated using landscapemetrics R library and related to neighbourhood distances over built-up land use (LU). Results Urban parks with homogenous cores and less complex shape provide distinctly higher cooling of neighbouring built-up LU of circa 2.55 °C over the distance of 18 m from park boundaries. Four metrics: contiguity index (CONTIG), core area index (CAI), fractal dimension index (FRAC) and perimeter-area ratio (PARA) represent significant relationship between spatial configuration of parks and their cooling distance. No cooling capacity of parks regardless of their shape and core was observed beyond the distance of 18 m, which remained constant with small fluctuations in the range of 0.5 °C up to the distance of 600 m. Conclusions The study concludes that cooling distance of urban parks in their neighbourhood extends up to 18 m, which is shorter than suggested by other studies.Item Open Access Robust spatial estimates of biomass carbon on farms(Elsevier, 2022-11-30) Beka, Styliani; Burgess, Paul J.; Corstanje, RonThe drive for farm businesses to move towards net zero greenhouse gas emissions means that there is a need to develop robust methods to quantify the amount of biomass carbon (C) on farms. Direct measurements can be destructive and time-consuming and some prediction methods provide no assessment of uncertainty. This study describes the development, validation, and use of an integrated spatial approach, including the use of lidar data, and Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to quantify total biomass carbon stocks (Ctotal) of i) land cover and ii) landscape features such as hedges and lone trees for five case study sites in lowland England. The results demonstrated that it was possible to develop and use a remote integrated approach to estimate biomass carbon at a farm scale. The highest achievable prediction accuracy was attained from models using the variables AGBC, BGBC, DOMC, age, height, species and land cover, derived from measured information and from literature review. The two BBN models successfully predicted the test values of the total biomass carbon with propagated error rates of 6.7 % and 4.3 % for the land cover and landscape features respectively. These error rates were lower than in other studies indicating that the seven predictors are strong determinants of biomass carbon. The lidar data also enabled the spatial presentation and calculation of the variable C stocks along the length of hedges and within woodlands.Item Open Access Spatial modelling approach and accounting method affects soil carbon estimates and derived farm-scale carbon payments(Elsevier, 2022-02-28) Beke, Styliani; Burgess, Paul J.; Corstanje, Ron; Stoate, ChrisImproved farm management of soil organic carbon (SOC) is critical if national governments and agricultural businesses are to achieve net-zero targets. There are opportunities for farmers to secure financial benefits from carbon trading, but field measurements to establish SOC baselines for each part of a farm can be prohibitively expensive. Hence there is a potential role for spatial modelling approaches that have the resolution, accuracy, and estimates to uncertainty to estimate the carbon levels currently stored in the soil. This study uses three spatial modelling approaches to estimate SOC stocks, which are compared with measured data to a 10 cm depth and then used to determine carbon payments. The three approaches used either fine- (100 m × 100 m) or field-scale input soil data to produce either fine- or field-scale outputs across nine geographically dispersed farms. Each spatial model accurately predicted SOC stocks (range: 26.7–44.8 t ha−1) for the five case study farms where the measured SOC was lowest (range: 31.6–48.3 t ha−1). However, across the four case study farms with the highest measured SOC (range: 56.5–67.5 t ha−1), both models underestimated the SOC with the coarse input model predicting lower values (range: 39.8–48.2 t ha−1) than those using fine inputs (range: 43.5–59.2 t ha−1). Hence the use of the spatial models to establish a baseline, from which to derive payments for additional carbon sequestration, favoured farms with already high SOC levels, with that benefit greatest with the use of the coarse input data. Developing a national approach for SOC sequestration payments to farmers is possible but the economic impacts on individual businesses will depend on the approach and the accounting method.Item Open Access Using Bayesian Belief Networks to assess the influence of landscape connectivity on ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies in urban landscapes in the UK(Springer, 2021-08-05) Karimi, James D.; Harris, Jim A.; Corstanje, RonContext Landscape connectivity is assumed to influence ecosystem service (ES) trade-offs and synergies. However, empirical studies of the effect of landscape connectivity on ES trade-offs and synergies are limited, especially in urban areas where the interactions between patterns and processes are complex. Objectives The objectives of this study were to use a Bayesian Belief Network approach to (1) assess whether functional connectivity drives ES trade-offs and synergies in urban areas and (2) assess the influence of connectivity on the supply of ESs. Methods We used circuit theory to model urban bird flow of P. major and C. caeruleus at a 2 m spatial resolution in Bedford, Luton and Milton Keynes, UK, and Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to assess the sensitivity of ES trade-offs and synergies model outputs to landscape and patch structural characteristics (patch area, connectivity and bird species abundance). Results We found that functional connectivity was the most influential variable in determining two of three ES trade-offs and synergies. Patch area and connectivity exerted a strong influence on ES trade-offs and synergies. Low patch area and low to moderately low connectivity were associated with high levels of ES trade-offs and synergies. Conclusions This study demonstrates that landscape connectivity is an influential determinant of ES trade-offs and synergies and supports the conviction that larger and better-connected habitat patches increase ES provision. A BBN approach is proposed as a feasible method of ES trade-off and synergy prediction in complex landscapes. Our findings can prove to be informative for urban ES management.