Browsing by Author "Collett, Gareth"
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Item Open Access 20230805-Crater Details FINAL.xlsx(Cranfield University, 2024-01-29 10:23) Collett, GarethThis data set compares surface explosions for spherical and hexahedral charges in alluvial soil.Item Open Access Introducing Bayesian belief updating as a method to counter improvised explosive devices: a qualitative case study on identifying human behaviours associated with explosive chemical precursor diversion(Springer, 2023-08-21) Collett, Gareth; Ladyman, Melissa; Temple, Tracey; Hazael, Rachael; McNaught, Ken R.Countering improvised explosive devices (C-IED) is a significant theme of the twenty-first century, particularly in regions with limited governance and a fragile rule of law. Many strands of activity are involved, with human interaction proving difficult to predict. However, Bayesian belief updating (used across several academic fields to provide insight into human behaviours) has never been considered. Given the breadth of C-IED, this research focusses on a state affected by conflict, and where illicit diversion of explosive chemical precursors (ECP) for IED manufacture is supported by the population. It aims to represent (both visually and probabilistically) a methodology by which human relationships could be better understood, thereby promoting belief updating as new evidence becomes available. Such belief updating would refine focus and improve resource mobilisation.Item Open Access The use of a predictive threat analysis to propose revisions to existing risk assessments for precursor chemicals used in the manufacture of home-made explosives (HME)(Elsevier, 2021-11-11) Collett, Gareth; Ladyman, Melissa K.; Hazael, Rachael; Temple, Tracey J.Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have generated over 137,000 civilian casualties in the past decade, more than any other explosive weapon system in the same period with a far-reaching impact on personal security freedoms across 50 affected countries. The aim of this paper is to consolidate existing risk management processes to control the availability of chemical precursors used in the manufacture of home-made explosives (HME) and to recommend global standards for market regulations in their composition, sale and use. This will be achieved by assessing the current regional regulations for three common chemical precursors (hydrogen peroxide, ammonium nitrate and potassium chlorate), and proposing a risk management process to identify key precursor chemicals that require greater control.