CERES :: Browsing by Author "Brooker, Peter"

Browsing by Author "Brooker, Peter"

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Open Access
Air traffic control automation: for humans or people?
(Ashgate Publishing, 2005) Brooker, Peter
Are air traffic controllers humans or people? At first sight, this seems a very odd question, given that ‘humans’ and ‘people’ are near-synonyms in the dictionary and everyday usage. However, in research on air traffic control (ATC) automation the phrase ‘human-centred’ is used to mean particular aspects of people: for example, it does not usually address their motivations for embracing change or cover organisational behaviour issues. The objective here is to try to understand how the fact that air traffic controllers are people – particular kinds of people – is likely to affect the introduction of automation. This examination takes as an example a suite of computer assistance tools for en route ATC. How would these tools need to change if the fact that controllers are ‘people’ is taken into account?
Open Access
Air traffic control radiotelephony safety: Investigating the English second language users’ perspective
(Cranfield University, 2007-10) Mohd, Noorlinah G.; Braithwaite, Graham R.; Brooker, Peter
Radiotelephony between air traffic controllers and pilots utilises standard phraseology as the medium of communications. Standard phraseology employs specific structure, terminology and pronunciation to ensure effectiveness and accuracy. On occasions when standard phraseology is found insufficient, plain language is used to efficiently relay vital information. By default, English is the designated language of communication between controllers and pilots of international flights. Deviations from the usage of standard phraseology and lack of language proficiency had been identified as one of the causal factors in safety occurrences. Language deficiencies, specifically of the non-native speakers of the English language, had raised much concern but there is limited information in the area. This research attempted to fill a small segment of this knowledge gap. It was focussed on the usage of standard phraseology and English language in an air traffic control environment involving English Second Language users. Audio data was sourced from routine radiotelephony recordings of ‘live’ air traffic control facilities in Malaysia to capture realistic communications between controllers and pilots in the Terminal Approach Radar, Area Radar and Aerodrome Control environments. A detailed cross sectional investigation of the radiotelephony characteristics, deficiencies and errors of transmitted messages revealed the radiotelephony performances of controllers and pilots in the environments. The recurrence of deviations from standards and occurrence of errors implied the likelihood of such deficiencies taking place. Demographic groups’ descriptions complemented the radiotelephony analyses as background information on language related training. The results were comparative to other similar studies and offered new information on English Second Language speakers in the Air Traffic Control environment.
Open Access
Air traffic control safety indicators: what is achievable?
(European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation, 2006-10) Brooker, Peter
European Air Traffic Control is extremely safe. The drawback to this safety record is that it is very difficult to estimate what the ‘underlying’ accident rate for mid-air collisions is now, or to detect any changes over time. The aim is to see if it possible to construct simple ATC safety indicators that correlate with this underlying accident rate. A perfect indicator would be simple to comprehend and capable of being calculated by a checklist process. An important concept is that of ‘system control’: the ability to determine the outcome against reasonably foreseen changes and variations of system parameters. A promising indicator is ‘Incident Not Resolved by ATC’, INRA, incidents in which the ground ATC defences have been ‘used up’. The key question is: if someone says he or she knows how to make a good estimate of the underlying accident rate, then how could this claim be tested? If it correlates very well with INRA, then what would be the argument for saying that it is a better indicator?
Open Access
Air traffic management accident risk, part 1: the limits of realistic modelling
(Cranfield University, 2005-06-27T13:40:21Z) Brooker, Peter
The prime goal of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system is to control accident risk. Some key questions are posed, including: What do design safety targets really mean and imply for risk modelling? In what circumstances can future accident risk really be modelled with sufficient precision? If risk cannot be estimated with precision, then how is safety to be assured with traffic growth and operational/technical changes? This paper endeavours to answer these questions by an analysis of the nature of accidents, causal factors and practical collision risk modelling. The main theme is how best to combine sound safety evidence and real world hazard analysis in a coherent and systematic framework.
Open Access
Air traffic management accident risk, part 2: repairing the deficiencies of ESARR4
(Cranfield University, 2005-06-27T13:43:54Z) Brooker, Peter
This is a critique of ESARR4 and its main supporting documents. ESARR4 is the Eurocontrol Safety Regulatory Requirement Number 4 (Eurocontrol SRC, 2001): ‘Risk Assessment and Mitigation in ATM’, ATM standing for Air Traffic Management. It is demonstrated that ESARR4 and its supporting documents are defective. There is a lack of clarity about responsibilities for ATM safety. The claims ESARR4 etc make for its proposed methodologies are overstated – not supported by sound evidence from real world hazard analysis. Serious negative effects from this defective document include mis-allocation of scarce safety resources and the diversion of attention away from real safety improvements – wasteful of regulators’ and managers’ time. Suggestions are made for repairing these deficiencies. The most important underlying change would be a refocusing on practical safety assessment based on methods that have already demonstrated their merits.
Open Access
Air traffic management innovation and UK business opportunity
(2008-01-16) Brooker, Peter
ATM (Air Traffic Management) and the associated UK business opportunities are huge topics, so the presentation sketches key issues. It includes lessons from the past, some ideas about the future, and case studies. The ATM system is big and complicated, so innovation has to combat system inertia. Two complementary ‘New ATM paradigms’, SESAR and NextGen, aim to break out of the limits inherent in the current ATM system. To innovate successfully in ATM, be part of the planned future that actually gets developed, and/or create/fill a need that is not yet in the plans.
Open Access
Air traffic management innovation: the risks of STASIS
(UK international Press Media & Events, 2007) Brooker, Peter
Stasis is a word used by the ancient Greeks to mean many different things: civil war, arguments between factions, ‘a stoppage’. Today it generally means a cessation of progress or change. ATM in Europe is in danger of being in stasis, because current ATM safety regulation policies are tending to make it more and more difficult to innovate, to introduce new technologies and ways of operating. The following essentially highlights the key findings of a group of published research papers analysing a variety of problems with ATM safety regulation policies. These policies mainly derive from the Eurocontrol Safety Regulation Commission (SRC), but also from ICAO. The case studies discussed are: the role of ground-based safety nets (Short Term Conflict Alert – STCA); air-based safety nets – Airborne Collision Avoidance Systems (ACAS); and risk assessment and mitigation in ATM (SRC’s Safety Regulatory Requirement Number 4 – ‘ESARR4’). These policies were no doubt developed with good intentions but, in quality management jargon, they are not ‘fit for purpose’.
Open Access
Air traffic management safety challenges
(2007-10) Brooker, Peter
The primary goal of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system is to control accident risk. ATM safety has improved over the decades for many reasons, from better equipment to additional safety defences. But ATM safety targets, improving on current performance, are now extremely demanding. Safety analysts and aviation decision-makers have to make safety assessments based on statistically incomplete evidence. If future risks cannot be estimated with precision, then how is safety to be assured with traffic growth and operational/technical changes? What are the design implications for the USA’s ‘Next Generation Air Transportation System’ (NextGen) and Europe’s Single European Sky ATM Research Programme (SESAR)? ATM accident precursors arise from (eg) pilot/controller workload, miscommunication, and lack of upto- date information. Can these accident precursors confidently be ‘designed out’ by (eg) better system knowledge across ATM participants, automatic safety checks, and machine rather than voice communication? Future potentially hazardous situations could be as ‘messy’ in system terms as the Überlingen mid-air collision. Are ATM safety regulation policies fit for purpose: is it more and more difficult to innovate, to introduce new technologies and novel operational concepts? Must regulators be more active, eg more inspections and monitoring of real operational and organisational practices?
Open Access
Air Traffic Safety: continued evolution or a new Paradigm.
(Royal Aeronautical Society, 2007-10-01T00:00:00Z) Brooker, Peter
The context here is Transport Risk Management. Is the philosophy of Air Traffic Safety different from other modes of transport? – yes, in many ways, it is. The focus is on Air Traffic Management (ATM), covering (eg) air traffic control and airspace structures, which is the part of the aviation system that is most likely to be developed through new paradigms. The primary goal of the ATM system is to control accident risk. ATM safety has improved over the decades for many reasons, from better equipment to additional safety defences. But ATM safety targets, improving on current performance, are now extremely demanding. What are the past and current methodologies for ATM risk assessment; and will they work effectively for the kinds of future systems that people are now imagining and planning? The title contrasts ‘Continued Evolution’ and a ‘New Paradigm’. How will system designers/operators assure safety with traffic growth and operational/technical changes that are more than continued evolution from the current system? What are the design implications for ‘new paradigms’, such as the USA’s ‘Next Generation Air Transportation System’ (NextGen) and Europe’s Single European Sky ATM Research Programme (SESAR)? Achieving and proving safety for NextGen and SESAR is an enormously tough challenge. For example, it will need to cover system resilience, human/automation issues, software/hardware performance/ground/air protection systems. There will be a need for confidence building programmes regarding system design/resilience, eg Human-in-the-Loop simulations with ‘seeded errors’.
Open Access
Airborne Separation Assurance Systems: towards a work programme to prove safety
(Elsevier, 2004-10) Brooker, Peter
With Full Delegation Airborne Separation Assurance System (ASAS), separation control would be delegated to the (properly equipped) aircraft, i.e. aircraft pilots are responsible for aircraft separation. The aim is to try to identify a tangible work programme – rational and evidence based, and within the compass of known techniques – that would prove safety. The task here is to create a framework in which to integrate these existing building blocks with results from additional work developed from well-specified experiments. Reasons for retaining the existing separation minima in an ASAS system are put forward. For the current system, comparatively large proportions of the Air Traffic Services risk budget should be allocated to ‘Reasonable Intent’ risk (effectively ‘right place on wrong flight path’). The key argument here is that mid-air collision in an ASAS environment will predominantly arise from this type of risk. The use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment, which requires the probabilities of safety-critical events to be estimated for ‘human components’ (Human Reliability Analysis), is reviewed. The danger is the creation of ‘over-elaborate’ models – ones whose parameters cannot be reliably estimated from the data likely to be obtainable. A simple model that can be soundly based on available data is proposed.
Open Access
Aircraft Noise: Annoyance, House Prices and Valuation
(Institute of Acoustics, 2006-05) Brooker, Peter
“Nobody wants to buy your house. It’s the aircraft noise. You’ll have to reduce the price a lot.” Aircraft noise around airports causes annoyance, and tends to reduce the price of affected properties. Can annoyance be ‘costed’ by examining house price reductions? Are there other ways of valuing annoyance in monetary terms? This short paper summarises key research results and poses some questions.
Open Access
Airport safety, capacity and investment
(2005-07-12T22:30:55Z) Brooker, Peter
The title ‘Airport Safety, Capacity and Investment’ could potentially cover an enormous range of topics and approaches. Techniques used include probabilistic risk analysis, queueing theory, operational research, and cost benefit analysis (CBA). The aim here is both to give an impression of the whole subject and to focus on a few key topics. Surveillance technology plays an important part in delivering safety and capacity, but has to be seen in the larger system picture, particularly when investment is contemplated.
Open Access
ANASE: Lessons from 'Unreliable Findings'
(2008) Brooker, Peter
In late 2007, the ANASE (Attitudes to Noise from Aviation Sources in England) report was published. It claimed that people are increasingly annoyed by aircraft noise, and it estimated how much they would be willing to pay to get rid of it. But its quantitative ‘findings were rejected as unreliable by the Department for Transport’ (BBC website). The project’s managers were warned in its early stages that the work would fail to deliver good value for money and not meet accepted technical/statistical standards. How and why did it fail? What were the methodological and project management failings? What are the lessons for acoustics professionals?
Open Access
ANASE: measuring aircraft noise annoyance very unreliably.
(Blackwell Publishing, 2008-03) Brooker, Peter
Does anyone who lives under a flight-path like aircraft noise? It is a political hot potato as well as a peace-destroyer. Tens of thousands of people will hear the noise from any third runway at Heathrow. So, when a study commissioned by the government claimed that people are becoming less tolerant of aircraft noise, it made highly unpleasant reading for supporters of a third runway. But the Department for Transport rejected the report as unreliable. Peter Brooker senses the vibrations.
Open Access
ANASE: Unreliable - owing to design-induced biases
(Institute of Acoustics, 2008-01) Brooker, Peter
In November 2007, the ANASE (Attitudes to Noise from Aviation Sources in England) report was published. It claimed that people are increasingly annoyed by aircraft noise, and it estimated how much they would be ‘willing to pay’ to get rid of it. But its quantitative ‘findings were rejected as unreliable by the Department for Transport [DfT]’ (BBC webpage). This paper summarises the main ANASE claims, and then examines its design, methodology and statistical analyses as set out in published documents. DfT was wise to commission the peer reviews and to publish the material (rather than be accused of a ‘cover up’). But no reliance can be put on ANASE’s claims. There are unrepairable major problems with questionnaire design and process, noise estimates, analysis techniques, and selective attempts to compare with international work.
Open Access
Are There Good Air Traffic Management Safety Indicators For Very Safe Systems?
(Cambridge University Press, 2007) Brooker, Peter
European Air Traffic Management is extremely safe. The drawback to this safety record is that it is very difficult to estimate what the ‘underlying’ accident rate for mid-air collisions is now, or to detect any changes over time. The aim is to see if it possible to construct simple ATM safety indicators that correlate with this underlying accident rate. A perfect indicator would be simple to comprehend and capable of being calculated by a checklist process. This problem has been examined by a combination of analogies with simple ‘defensive’ systems with Markov process properties. An important concept is that of ‘system control’: the ability to determine the outcome against reasonably foreseen changes and variations of system parameters The statistical distribution of future incidents has been analysed by focusing on an index – the CPI – of separation at the Closest Point of Approach. A promising indicator is ‘Incident Not Resolved by ATC’, INRA, incidents in which the ground ATC defences have been ‘used up’. ATM Incidents can also be categorised in other ways: two examples are reviewed: the risk-bearing category for Airproxes and ‘risk of collision/severity’ scores. The second is more promising conceptually, but the existing scoring system has not been demonstrated to have the properties necessary to derive risk estimates. The key question is: if someone says they know how to make a good estimate of the underlying accident rate, then how could this claim be tested? If it correlates very well with INRA, then what would be the argument for saying that it is a better indicator?
Open Access
Aviation and Climate Change: I - UK Airport CO2 Emissions.
(UK & International Press, 2009) Brooker, Peter
Aviation’s contribution to climate change is now a topic of considerable interest. This paper summarises some key facts on airport CO2 emissions, and highlights some policy implications.
Open Access
Aviation and Climate Change: II – Air Traffic Management and Aviation Non-CO2 Issues.
(UK & International Press, 2009) Brooker, Peter
Action on climate change is now the subject of worldwide and European legislation. The following explores some of the issues raised for air traffic management (ATM) and aviation ‘Non-CO2 ’ Issues. A key aim is to examine some widely quoted figures about the size of aviation’s emission effects.
Open Access
Civil Aircraft Design Priorities: Air Quality? Climate Change? Noise?
(Royal Aeronautical Society, 2006-08-01T00:00:00Z) Brooker, Peter
A variety of related questions is posed. Are the right priorities for future aircraft design being set now? New civil aircraft types could be ‘silent’, ie make much less noise than current types. They could be ‘green’, ie safeguard the environment. Is silent as important as green? The crucial answer is that future aircraft design should focus on substantial reductions on climate change impact. The air quality targets proposed by the ’Sustainable Aviation’ initiative appear very ambitious: they should be pursued only to the extent that they do not affect improved fuel efficiency and reduced climate-changing emissions. Good progress has already been made on the aircraft noise targets proposed by the Sustainable Aviation’ initiative, but again they should be pursued only to the extent that they do not affect improved fuel efficiency and reduced climate-changing emissions. The financial case for designing to reduce aircraft noise in order to deliver novel financial benefits, eg increase airport flights at night and/or relocate airports, is weak.
Open Access
Controller workload, airspace capacity and future systems
(Ashgate Publishing, 2003) Brooker, Peter
In air traffic control (ATC), controller workload – or controller mental workload – is an extremely important topic. There have been many research studies, reports and reviews on workload (as it will be referred to here). Indeed, the joke is that researchers will produce ‘reviews of reviews’ (Stein, 1998). The present document necessarily has something of that flavour, and does review many of the ‘breakthrough’ research results, but there is a concentration on some specific questions about workload.