CERES :: Browsing by Author "Audsley, Eric"

Browsing by Author "Audsley, Eric"

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Open Access
Agricultural Futures and Implications for the Environment.
(2005-11-01T00:00:00Z) Morris, Joe; Audsley, Eric; Wright, Iain A.; McLeod, Jim; Pearn, Kerry R.; Angus, Andrew; Rickard, Sean
In this context, the overall aim of project is to explore possible long term futures for agriculture in England and Wales in order to inform decision-making on environmental policy and provide a 2 framework for Defra research on sustainable agriculture, climate change and other environmental issues.
Open Access
Analysis of the 2007/8 Defra Farm Business Survey Energy Module
(2010-11-30T00:00:00Z) Williams, Adrian G.; Pearn, Kerry R.; Sandars, Daniel L.; Audsley, Eric; Parsons, David J.; Chatterton, Julia C.
Key points This study has delivered an invaluable baseline estimate of energy use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on commercial farms in England. Energy use and GHG emissions associated with particular commodities were quantified and results broadly agreed with those derived by Life Cycle Assessment, but with much scatter in the environmental performance of farms.Direct energy use on farms was generally less that indirect (embedded) energy use, except for horticulture, which is dominated by heating fuel use. In contrast, most GHG emissions are incurred on farms, rather than as embedded emissions.Scatter in both environmental and economic performance underlies the somewhat disappointing finding of no clear positive link between farm financial performance and energy use or GHG emissions. However, the mere existence of these ranges shows that there is scope for improvement in both financial and environmental performance and that there is no apparent barrier for both to be achievable in harmony. The recording of such farm-level energy data is essential for the future, as it should enable improvements to be made in efficiency of energy use. The improved UK agricultural GHG inventory will depend on high quality energy data on agricultural activities. This study will be invaluable in identifying the level of detail needed. Future data requirements include: contractor work rates and fuel use per unit area and per unit time, fertiliser and pesticide use by brand name, enhanced output data, especially animal live weights, and horticultural produce recorded by weight rather than by value.
Open Access
Assessing the environmental impacts of healthier diets. Final report to Defra on project FO0427
(2018-09-27) Williams, Adrian; Morris, Joe; Audsley, Eric; Hess, Tim; Goglio, Pietro; Burgess, Paul; Chatterton, Julia; Pearn, Kerry; Mena, Carlos; Whitehead, Peter
Summary: oncern about the public health impacts of dietary habits in the UK have led to initiatives to encourage healthier eating, notably in the dietary guidelines represented of the eatwell plate (FSA, 2007) and the Eatwell Guide (NHS, 2016c). A change in UK dietary habits towards healthier eating would result in changes in the type and quantities of food items in the national diet, with implications for agricultural, food and allied industries. More specifically, this could lead to changes in land use and farming practices, both for the UK and its trading partners, with associated effects on greenhouse gas emissions and other environmental impacts. In this context, and sponsored by Defra, this study set out using a series of scenarios to assess the environmental impacts of changing dietary habits and specifically the adoption of healthier eating in the UK, and in broad terms some of the likely social and economic impacts on the agricultural and food sector, through a set of hypothetical scenarios. The main objectives were to: i) determine the consumption of food under possible future food consumption scenarios in the UK, including the eatwell plate; ii) quantify the production of agricultural commodities needed to meet the food needs of each scenario; iii) quantify the environmental impacts of food commodity production and consumption by scenarios, and iv) identify, in broad terms, the possible economic and societal impacts of dietary changes.
Open Access
CAP-DAIRY: computer aided planning of dairy farms
(Cranfield University, 1995-09) Rodrigues, Luiz Henrique Antunes; Audsley, Eric; Kerr, Duncan
A linear programming (LP) model has been developed (CAP-DAIRY) to describe the grass utilisation and feeding system on a dairy farm. It links several components of the system and optimizes the system as a whole. The model links a grass utilisation model, a feed ration model and a novel model which relates on-going milk yield to on-going feeding level. The main feature of the model is the approach adopted to relate feeding levels, milk yield and weight changes. When cows are fed more than they require for maintenance and the current level of milk yield, the excess energy becomes increased bodyweight and cause an increase in milk yield. When fed less than they require, they mobilize reserves into energy for milk production and lose weight and tend to reduce milk yield. At the start of the lactation some weight loss is tolerated. This is treated in the model as a requirements for up to 0.5 kg/day weight loss in addition to maintenance so that a lower weight loss is the increase case. A linear mathematical model that represents this mechanism was developed and incorporated into the LP and fitted to data which changed the level of feeding of dairy cows during the lactation. This gives a greater flexibility to the LP and allows the model to determine optimal feeding levels at all stages of the lactation and as a consequence optimal milk yields and optimal stages for weight changes, which vary depending on calving date and feed availability The grass utilisation model permits the successive utilisation of grass for grazing or silage making. Grazing can take place two, three or four weeks after the previous use and silage making five, six or seven weeks after the previous use. To allow for the effect of silage making on regrowth, use after this is delayed by one week. Data on energy and dry matter yields at any time is required and the model determines the optimum schedule of use and frequency. Silage is made in a number of separate silos but the feeding-out energy value makes the model non-linear. This is solved by using a recursive approach in which the initially unknown feeding value is calculated from successive solutions and the model reoptimized to convergence. The feed ration model determines the amount of grass, silage and concentrates required based on the maximum dry matter intake, which is a function of yield and the energy required for maintenance, milk yield and any weight change. The model could be easily extended to also use protein given suitable data. The LP determines the optimal land use for forage and cash crops, calving pattern and feeding strategy according to specific farm conditions such as farm area, milk quota and availability of forage maize. Several scenarios were studied and the effects of changes of different parameters analysed. Results indicated that net margins increased with maize crop areas and gave higher optimum milk yields replacing concentrates up to an optimum area of maize. The seasonality of milk prices affected particularly calving pattern and milk yield and the results suggested they led to more even milk production due to encouraging Autumn calving. Results also showed that the optimal feeding levels is different for cows calving in different periods of the year resulting in different weight change pattern and milk yields. Spring calving cows lost more weight than cows calving in any other period, but regained the weight lost quickly. They also produced the lowest level of milk. Autumns calving cows had the highest milk yield and the lowest weight losses, although a longer period to regain that weight was optimal. Summer calving cows produced slightly less milk and lost slightly more weight than Autumn cows. Another important aspect that results showed was the influence that maize silage has on farm decisions. The larger the maize crop area the higher the marginal price of milk quota, showing that milk quota constraint was more severe for those cases and consequently higher prices for extra milk quota could be paid. CAP-DAIRY is suitable for analysing the impact that changes such as milk prices, fertilizer prices or concentrates prices would cause on the optimal plans. The model is also helpful to evaluate research priorities by analysing the effects caused by biological and technical changes such as grass varieties and machinery.
Open Access
The concepts and development of a participatory regional integrated assessment tool.
(Springer Science Business Media, 2008-09-01T00:00:00Z) Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Cojacaru, G.; Shackley, S.; McLachlan, C.; Audsley, Eric; Berry, P. M.; Fontaine, C.; Harrison, P. A.; Henriques, C.; Mokrech, M.; Nicholls, R. J.; Pearn, Kerry R.; Richards, J. A.
This paper provides an overview of the development of the ‘Regional Impact Simulator’ – a user friendly software tool designed to allow stakeholders to perform integrated assessments of the effects of climate and/or socio-economic change on the important sectors and resources of two contrasting UK regions. This includes the assessment of agriculture, water resources, biodiversity and coastal and river flooding. The tool arose from the need to further develop the methods applied in the earlier RegIS project, which was the first local to regional integrated assessment in the UK. The limitations of RegIS included very long run times, a limited number of simulations, incomplete linkages between models and no allowance for scenario uncertainty. Based upon the stakeholder needs identified within RegIS, a series of guiding principles were developed with Steering Committee stakeholders, which informed the concept of the ‘Regional Impact Simulator’ including functionality, appearance and complexity. An Integrated Assessment Methodology based upon the Drivers-Pressure-State- Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework facilitated the integration of multiple models, scenarios and datasets within the software interface. The development of the ‘Regional Impact Simulator’ provides a test-bed for further studies of stakeholder-led, regional, integrated assessment, and provides an opportunity to learn the many lessons in undertakin
Open Access
Determining sectoral and regional sensitivity to climate and socio-economic change in Europe using impact response surfaces
(Springer, 2018-10-02) Fronzek, Stefan; Carter, Timothy R.; Pirttioja, Nina; Alkemade, Rob; Audsley, Eric; Bugmann, Harald; Florke, Martina; Holman, Ian P.; Honda, Yasushi; Ito, Akihiko; Janes-Bassett, Victoria; Lafond, Valentine; Leemans, Rik; Mokrech, Marc; Nunez, Sarahi; Sandars, Daniel; Snell, Rebecca; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Tanaka, Akemi; Wimmer, Florian; Yoshikawa, Minoru
Responses to future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions can be expected to vary between sectors and regions, reflecting differential sensitivity to these highly uncertain factors. A sensitivity analysis was conducted using a suite of impact models (for health, agriculture, biodiversity, land use, floods and forestry) across Europe with respect to changes in key climate and socio-economic variables. Depending on the indicators, aggregated grid or indicative site results are reported for eight rectangular sub-regions that together span Europe from northern Finland to southern Spain and from western Ireland to the Baltic States and eastern Mediterranean, each plotted as scenario-neutral impact response surfaces (IRSs). These depict the modelled behaviour of an impact variable in response to changes in two key explanatory variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time the IRS approach has been applied to changes in socio-economic drivers and over such large regions. The British Isles region showed the smallest sensitivity to both temperature and precipitation, whereas Central Europe showed the strongest responses to temperature and Eastern Europe to precipitation. Across the regions, sensitivity to temperature was lowest for the two indicators of river discharge and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Sensitivity to precipitation was lowest for intensive agricultural land use, maize and potato yields and Scots pine productivity, and highest for Norway spruce productivity. Under future climate projections, North-eastern Europe showed increases in yields of all crops and productivity of all tree species, whereas Central and East Europe showed declines. River discharge indicators and forest productivity (except Holm oak) were projected to decline over southern European regions. Responses were more sensitive to socio-economic than to climate drivers for some impact indicators, as demonstrated for heat-related mortality, coastal flooding and land use.
Open Access
Environmental burdens of producing bread wheat, oilseed rape and potatoes in England and Wales using simulation and system modelling
(Ecomed Publishers, 2010-12-31T00:00:00Z) Williams, Adrian G.; Audsley, Eric; Sandars, Daniel L.
Background, aims and scope Food production is essential to life. Modern farming uses considerable resources to produce arable crops. Analysing the environmental burdens of alternative crop production methods is a vital tool for policymakers. The paper describes the production burdens (calculated by life cycle analysis) of three key arable crops: bread wheat, oilseed rape and potatoes as grown in England and Wales using organic and non-organic (contemporary conventional) systems. Resource use (e.g. abiotic and energy) and burdens from emissions are included (e.g. global warming potential on a 100-year basis, global warming potential (GWP), and eutrophication and acidification potentials). Methods Crop production was analysed, using systems models, so that the effects of factors like changing N fertiliser application rates or irrigation could be examined. Emissions of nitrate were derived from a simulation model in which soil organic N was driven to steady state so that all long-term effects were properly accounted for. Yield response curves to N were similarly derived from long-term experiments. Crop nutrient inputs and plant protection applications were derived from national survey data and the literature. All major inputs were accounted for including fertiliser extraction, manufacture and delivery; pesticide manufacture; field fuel use; machinery and building manufacture; crop drying, cooling and storage. The current balance of production systems were found from survey data. The weighted mean national production was calculated froma combination of three rainfall levels and soil textures. The system boundary is the farm gate. The functional unit is 1 t marketable fresh weight of each product. Results and discussion The primary energy needs for the producing the three main crops were 2.4, 4.9 and 1.4 GJ/t for bread wheat, oilseed rape and potatoes, respectively. When expressed in terms of dry matter, protein or energy, wheat incurred smaller burdens than oilseed rape, which incurred lower burdens than potatoes. The crops do, of course, all play different roles. Organically produced bread wheat needed about 80% of the energy of non-organic, while organic potatoes needed 13% more energy than nonorganically produced ones. While pesticide use was always lower in organic production, other burdens were generally inconsistently higher or lower. Land occupation was always higher for organic production. Lower fertiliser use (and hence energy use) in organic systems is offset by more energy for fieldwork and lower yields. Main crop potato energy needs are dominated by cold storage. Reducing the N application rate for bread wheat production reduces energy use and GWP. The optimum for energy is with N at about 70% of the current level. It seems to be lower for GWP, but the sub-models used are beyond their range of reliability. The results are generally of the same order as those from other European studies. Conclusions Arable crop production depends heavily on fossil fuel in current major production systems. The emissions causing GWP are very dependent on nitrous oxide, more so than fuel consumption. That, together with emissions of ammonia and nitrate, means that agriculture has a C-N footprint rather than the C footprint that typifies most industrial life. Recommendations and perspectives With the large influence of nitrous oxide on GWP, evaluation of nitrous oxide emissions by another method, e.g. crop-soil simulation modelling instead of the more rigid IPCC method would improve the robustness of the analysis. The transition betweenfarming systems was not included in this study, but there could be short to medium term benefits of converting from nonorganic to organic methods that should be evaluated. System modelling allows alternative production methods to be readily explored and this greatly enhances LCA methodology.
Open Access
Environmental resource use by agricultural and horticultural commodities - Defra project report IS0205
(Cranfield University, 2019-02-05 09:24) Williams, Adrian; Audsley, Eric; Sandars, Daniel
Underlying models used in the report: "Determining the environmental burdens and resource use in the production of agricultural and horticultural commodities." Defra project report IS0205 by the Natural Resource Management Institute, Cranfield University, August 2006. The final report and executive summary are available from the defra site at the link provided.
Open Access
Estimation of the greenhouse gas emissions from agricultural pesticide manufacture and use.
(2009-08-01T00:00:00Z) Audsley, Eric; Stacey, K. F.; Parsons, David J.; Williams, Adrian G.
All references to energy for pesticide production in agriculture can be traced back to the original data of Green (1987). The most common method used to derive values for current chemicals is to use the average of each category of active ingredient. However a comparison of the mean and standard deviation of the categories provides little justification for using anything other than the overall average for agrochemicals, both for the total energy used and the breakdown into the different sources of inherent and process energy. However it is likely that using energy requirements derived directly from Green, such as the mean or maximum will generally underestimate for chemicals introduced since 1985.
Open Access
A foliar disease model for use in wheat disease management decision support systems.
(Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2005-10-01T00:00:00Z) Audsley, Eric; Milne, Alice E.; Paveley, Neil
A model of winter wheat foliar disease is described, parameterised and tested for Septoria tritici (leaf blotch), Puccinia striiformis (yellow rust), Erysiphe graminis (powdery mildew) and Puccinia triticina (brown rust). The model estimates diseaseinduced green area loss, and can be coupled with a wheat canopy model, in order to estimate remaining light intercepting green tissue, and hence the capacity for resource capture. The model differs from those reported by other workers in three respects. Firstly, variables (such as weather, host resistance and inoculum pressure) which affect disease risk are integrated in their effect on disease progress. The agronomic and meteorological data called for are restricted to those commonly available to growers by their own observations and from meteorological service networks. Secondly, field observations during the growing season can be used both to correct current estimates of disease severity and modify parameters which determine predicted severity. Thirdly, pathogen growth and symptom expression are modeled to allow the effects of fungicides to be accounted for as protectant activity (reducing infections which occur postapplication) and eradicant activity (reducing growth of pre-symptomatic infections). The model was tested against data from a wide range of sites and varieties, and was shown to predict the expected level of disease sufficiently accurately to support fungicide treatment decisions.
Open Access
Food, land and greenhouse gases The effect of changes in UK food consumption on land requirements and greenhouse gas emissions. Report for the Committee on Climate Change.
(2010-12-21T00:00:00Z) Audsley, Eric; Angus, Andrew; Chatterton, Julia C.; Graves, Anil R.; Morris, Joe; Murphy-Bokern, Donal; Pearn, Kerry R.; Sandars, Daniel L.; Williams, Adrian G.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY •1. Key findingsThis study examines the land use and greenhouse gas implications of UK food consumption change away from carbon intensive products. It shows that the UK agricultural land base can support increased consumption of plant-based products arising from the reduced consumption of livestock products. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption reduces the area of arable and grassland required to supply UK food, both in the UK and overseas. It also reduces emissions of greenhouse gases from primary production by 19%. A switch from beef or sheepmeat (red meat) to pork or poultry (white meat) reduces food consumption related greenhouse gas emissions and the land area required but increases overseas arable land use. With this exception, the release of arable land now used to grow animal feed exceeds the additional arable land required for increased plant based foods in both the UK and overseas. Reducing livestock product consumption also has the potential to enable delivery of other significant environmental benefits, for example, reductions in ammonia and nitrate emissions. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption reduces UK grassland needs for UK food production by several million hectares. This land could be used to supply livestock products for export markets although our scenarios assume that the proportions of imports, domestic production and exports remain constant. In these circumstances, some of the grassland released could be used to produce arable crops, including crops for biofuel production. Almost all of it could be converted to woodland or managed in other ways for biodiversity and/or amenity purposes. Conversion of this land resource to woodland has significant potential to increase soil carbon storage while supplying biomass for energy. Scenario Cropped area required, kha Grassland area required, kha Total area, kha Greenhouse gas emissions, kt CO2e/ year * UK OS Total UK OS Total UK OS Total Baseline 3,388 4,458 7,846 11,228 1,944 13,172 21,018 51,693 29,001 80,694 50% reduction in livestock with land release priority: Uniform 3,123 4,131 7,254 4,161 700 4,861 12,115 36,282 29,456 65,738 Maximise non-tillable land release 3,123 4,131 7,254 2,905 700 3,605 10,859 36,246 29,451 65,697 Maximise release of tillable land 3,123 4,131 7,254 7,102 700 7,802 15,056 36,282 29,457 65,739 Red to white meat with land release priority: Uniform 3,443 4,908 8,351 3,879 486 4,365 12,716 45,812 27,575 73,387 Maximise release of non-tillable land 3,443 4,909 8,352 2,909 486 3,395 11,747 45,867 27,572 73,439 Maximise release of tillable land 3,443 4,908 8,351 6,947 486 7,433 15,784 45,878 27,575 73,453 50% reduction in white meat consumption: Uniform 3,201 3,735 6,936 11,228 1,944 13,172 20,108 49,525 28,500 78,025 * The greenhouse gas emissions do not include possible effects of land use changeSummary table. The area of land needed to supply UK food and the greenhouse gas emissions from food production under current circumstances and under the seven scenarios studied. In a reduction scenario, concentrating remaining livestock production on different land types (e.g. concentrating on intensive production on lowland farms versus extensive production on lower quality land) has little effect on greenhouse gas emissions from primary production. This indicates that there is relatively little scope to reduce emissions by restructuring production (at least restructuring in relation to land use). It is further noted that concentrating livestock production on higher quality land would cause an almost complete closure of production for UK markets on land not suited to intensive grass or arable production, with biodiversity and economic impacts (discussed further below). The risks of unintended consequences with respect to greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low given the assumptions in the scenarios, but the actuality of such change will depend on future economic, social and political drivers. The report includes detailed analyses of land use and emissions data together with extensive discussion of a wide range of effects based on literature analysis. •2. Study objectivesThis study was conducted for the UK Government's Committee on Climate Change (CCC) to examine if UK agriculture can support consumption change away from carbon- intensive food products. For the purposes of the consumption scenarios, it is assumed the relationships between imports, exports and domestic consumption remain constant for each of the commodities used by the UK food system. The following questions were addressed: 1. Land needs: Given land quality considerations (e.g. land capability and constraints), to what extent is it possible to support a change in the UK consumption of meat and dairy products with a corresponding increase in substitute goods from UK agricultural land? Can a reduction in meat and dairy product consumption release land for other purposes? To what use would this freed-up land be suitable (e.g. food production, biomass production, carbon sequestration, other ecosystem service provision, forestry, etc.)? 2. Greenhouse gas emissions: What are the implications of the transition in production for GHGs both in the UK and abroad (including soil carbon releases, sequestration, reduced production of feed, etc, as well as reductions in direct N2O and CH4 emissions? 3. Other effects: What are the other implications, including for water, other pollutants, farm incomes, availability of manure as a fertiliser input, public health, ecosystem services, biodiversity, and animal welfare? 4. International implications: If UK agricultural land cannot support consumption changes, what are the international implications in terms of agricultural production and land-use displacement (e.g. deforestation, land for biofuels, land for food), and GHGs?•3. MethodsWe developed and used a combination of consumption and production scenarios to examine potential consequences of change. Life-cycle assessment (mainly life cycle inventory analysis) was applied to these scenarios to examine the overall effects of the consumption change on GHG and other emissions from primary production, in the UK and overseas. The production under the various scenarios was allocated to agricultural land resources by a combination of survey-based data analysis and model-derived calculations. Land use change (LUC) emissions (from changing soil C and biomass stocks) were calculated from data in the UK national inventory as well as from the UK Renewable Fuel Agency for overseas land types. Commodity flows as affected by consumption were calculated from FAOSTAT and Defra data. The resulting emissions were allocated to the various inventories in which they are registered, e.g. the UK's GHG inventories for agriculture, LUC, energy use and industry, together with those from overseas that are made up by components from our UK consumption of food and drink. Scientific literature relevant to the wider assessment of these scenarios was analysed (and an ecosystems services method was applied) to enable a qualitative assessment to complement the quantitative analysis. ScenariosWe designed a range of consumption and production scenarios to examine options on both the demand and supply sides. These comprise three consumption and three production scenarios. The consumption scenarios are as follows: Consumption Scenario 1. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption balanced by increases in plant commodities. Consumption Scenario 2. A shift from red meat (beef and lamb) to white meat (pork and poultry). Red meat consumption is reduced by 75%. Consumption Scenario 3. A 50% reduction in white meat consumption balanced by increases in plant commodities. It must be stressed that the nature of scenarios is such that they contain a variety of assumptions about possible future demands and supplies of agricultural commodities. The scenarios are not forecasts. The focus has been on the technical capacity of land and agricultural production, not on the market changes needed to enable change. It should be noted that the balance of supply from the UK and overseas is assumed to remain as it is now. The 50% reduction in livestock products was not applied uniformly across these commodities. Under the reduction scenario (Consumption scenario 1), consumption of milk and eggs is 60% of current consumption, and meat consumption is 36% of current consumption. Sugar consumption is also reduced to align with healthy eating guidelines. Reduction in consumption of livestock products is balanced by increasing plant consumption on the basis of constant food energy supplied. Fruit and vegetable consumption was increased by 50% and basic carbohydrate (e.g. cereals, potatoes) and oil rich commodities (except palm oil) by 33%. Substitution was estimated on the basis of food energy use at the commodity level using FAOSTAT data. Expert opinion was obtained in relation to the viability of consumption change under Scenario 1. This indicated that diets at the consumer level under this scenario are viable from a nutritional viewpoint. It was also noted that Consumption Scenario 1 aligns with healthy eating guidelines in other countries. The production scenarios are focused on the intensity of use of different types of land. The result is a difference in the quantity and type of land ‘released' from production from change that reduces land needs. The production scenarios are: Production Scenario 1. Uniform land release - ‘pro-rata' changes in land requirements across land types. Production Scenario 2. Maximise release of tillable land - ruminant meat production concentrated on lower quality land. Production Scenario 3. Maximise release of low quality land - ruminant meat production concentrated on high quality land. The combination of consumption scenarios 1 and 2 and three production scenarios gives a total of 6 system scenarios. These are complemented by Consumption Scenario 3 giving a total of 7. •4. ResultsLand needsAll consumption change scenarios reduce the total amount of land estimated as required to support the UK food system. A switch from red to white meat increases the need for overseas arable land, although a larger area of UK land that can be tilled is released. Under a reduction scenario, the amount of extra land required for the direct consumption of plant products is less than the amount of arable land released from livestock feed production. The net effect on total overseas arable land needs is a reduction of about 311,000 ha and a net release of about 265,000 ha arable land in the UK. The need for grassland is greatly reduced. The release of grassland with some arable potential ranges between 1.6 to 3.7 million ha depending on where remaining production is concentrated. The release of grassland with no arable potential ranges from 0.7 to 6.9 million ha. Under a reduction scenario, concentrating remaining production on better quality land would almost entirely eliminate sheep and beef production for the UK from the hills, most uplands and less productive lowland areas. Under Consumption Scenario 2 (a shift from beef and sheepmeat to white meat from pigs and poultry), the diet needs of pigs and poultry result in a net increase in demand for overseas grown crops, although considerably more potentially arable land is released in the UK. More arable cropping is needed both in the UK (an additional 55,000 ha) and to a much greater extent overseas (about an additional 466,000 ha), driven largely by soy. However, the release of arable quality grassland in the UK exceeds the increase in overseas arable landed needed for producing this feed. The result is a net release of between 1.6 and 2.9million ha potentially arable land in the UK plus the release of 1.3 to 6.6 millionha of land suitable only for grassland. Under Consumption Scenario 3 (a 50% reduction in white meat consumption balanced by an increase in plant products) the changes are much less complex with no changes in grassland needs. Increases in demand for arable land for direct human consumption amounted to about 154,000 and 172,000 ha (domestic and overseas respectively), but these are more than compensated for by the release of arable land from feed production (341,000 and 668,000ha domestic and overseas respectively). Focusing a reduced cattle and sheep industry on non- arable land would result in the release of substantially more tillable land (currently grassland). In a 50% livestock production consumption reduction scenario, maximising the use of lower grade land (semi-natural grassland, hill land etc.) releases 3.7 million of tillable grassland (including 1.3million ha of good arable land). The opposite approach of withdrawing production from less capable land releases just 1.7 millionha of potentially arable land, with almost no release of the grassland well suited for to arable production. The land-use trade-off is therefore clear. Under a 50% livestock consumption reduction scenario, 2 million ha of tillable grassland is required to compensate for the withdrawal of cattle and sheep production from 6.9 million ha of non-tillable grassland. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption opens up the opportunity to release about half of UK land currently used for UK food supplies if remaining production is concentrated on the more capable land. If land is released uniformly, almost two-thirds of this release takes place on grassland not suited to arable production and the remaining third is grassland with some arable potential. There would be with higher levels of land release in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland than in England. Depending on where the remaining production takes place, a large proportion of land released may be very unproductive, but it can be assumed that about 5 million ha with potential for other agricultural uses would be available, for example for the production of livestock for export (if they did not reduce their livestock consumption), for producing arable biofuel crops, planted woodland and re-wilding (to natural woodland in many cases). Greenhouse gas emissionsAll consumption scenarios reduce greenhouse gas emissions from primary production. The largest reduction is from a livestock reduction scenario (Consumption Scenario 1): from 81 to 66MtCO2e (19% reduction). The switch from red to white meat reduces emissions by 9% and a 50% reduction in white meat consumption by only 3%. The net effect on emissions depends greatly on the alternative use of the grassland released from food production. The study indicates the range of possible consequences on soil and biomass fluxes. If all tillable grassland released from food production was converted to arable use, 8 to 17MtCO2e per year would be released over 20 years through the effects of land use change. Converting all released land with the potential to support good tree growth to woodland would cause a net carbon uptake equivalent to about 7.5 to 9.5MtCO2e per year in soil and wood per year over 20 years. Land use preference (e.g. focusing remaining production on high quality land) has little effect on emissions. This is an important result indicating that supply chain emissions are unresponsive to changes in industry structure with respect to the land used. The location of emissions reductions (UK or overseas) was identified. Currently, we estimate that 36% of primary production emissions are overseas. All scenarios reduce UK emissions while Consumption Scenario 1 has little effect on overseas emissions and Consumption Scenario 2 reduces overseas emissions by 5%. None of the scenarios involve a net export of emissions and the GHG reduction benefits in the UK are proportionally greater than those overseas because of the tight link between UK livestock consumption and production. OTHER EFFECTS Other emissions All consumption scenarios are expected to reduce other emissions. Consumption Scenario 1 halves ammonia emissions. Reductions in nitrate emissions, eutrophication emissions generally, and acidification are almost as large (ca 45%). Biodiversity and carbon sequestration It is widely asserted that grassland, especially semi- natural grassland, has a higher biodiversity value compared with other types of vegetation, natural climax vegetation for example. It is often claimed that the retention of these grasslands is important for the continued delivery of some ecosystem services, for example, carbon sequestration. In many other European countries, the uplands and hills are usually wooded. For example, 32% and 29% of the land area in Germany and France respectively are wooded compared with 12% in the UK. Thus conversion to climax woodland or other forms of forestry is one obvious alternative use for released grassland. Our study has identified benefits for carbon sequestration in soil when grassland is converted to woodland (there should also be potential benefits in the use of harvested wood). Our analysis of land use statistics reveals the large proportion of UK land currently occupied by cattle and sheep. Without these livestock, this grassland (much of which is semi-natural grassland) would revert to the natural vegetation - deciduous woodland in many cases. Our results show that the use of livestock to retain semi-natural grasslands is not dependent on the current high level of livestock product consumption. A 50% reduction in demand still leaves a market which is large enough to support this activity. However, given how a declining market affects all suppliers, a livestock reduction scenario presents special challenges to the maintenance of semi-natural grasslands. Livestock systems provide a wide range of services that are currently used by society. In a reduction scenario, rural areas lose skills and employment in the livestock sector and there would be ramifications for linked industries such as the meat processing or veterinary sectors. Culturally important features, for example, hedgerows and stone walls, and much of the fauna and flora associated with grassland would be no longer needed. In the UK as a whole, land that is most likely to be taken out of production is associated with difficult production conditions. In England, upland moorland and common land now in a semi-natural state could change to fully natural vegetation cover. In upland areas, where the majority of re-wilding under Consumption Scenario 1 and 2 would be located, evidence suggests that various natural communities including scrub, bracken, bramble, and woodland with their own assemblage of flora and fauna are likely to develop, with potential increases in wild herbivores such as deer, hares, and rabbits. The majority of SSSIs currently under-grazed occur in lowland areas, for example in southern and eastern parts of England, and a lack of livestock results in difficulty in applying the grazing pressure required to maintain the semi-natural faunal and floral diversity. Recreational access to the uplands, which is now facilitated by open grassland landscapes, may be impaired and evidence suggests that visitors view the loss of traditional semi-natural landscapes, with associated meadows, hedges, and stone walls, negatively. Whilst a reduction in the current ecosystem service provision associated with livestock production from cattle and sheep can be expected under Consumption Scenarios 1 and 2, the net change is also dependent on the alternative use to which land is put. In upland SSSIs, overgrazing is often problematic and reducing grazing pressure may allow semi-natural habitats to recover, in particular dwarf shrub heaths, bogs, acid grassland and upland habitats. The release of large areas of land could also be used to diversify upland areas. For example, semi-natural upland woodlands have declined by 30-40% since the 1950s and the UK Habitat Action Plan has therefore included a target to increase the area of upland oak woodland through planting or natural regeneration of current open ground. In the lowlands, approximately 10% of the current arable land could be released for other activities, such as bioenergy crops, woodlands, recreational land, wetland creation, nature reserves, flood protection, carbon sequestration, and urban development. Each of these land uses will have its own specific range and flow of ecosystem services associated with it. While in general, the release of agricultural land with high environmental value from food production is not viewed as positive, Defra has concluded that there are likely to be situations where positive outcomes can occur. Economic considerations The reduction in the amount of land needed to supply the UK goes hand-in-hand with a reduction in the value added by agriculture supplying UK consumed food. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption (Consumption Scenario 1) reduces the UK farm-gate value of livestock products from £7.6 to 3.5 billion. The farm-level economic impact of a change along these lines will depend crucially on what replacement output is found for the land released and on market effects that are beyond the scope of this study. One economic response scenario is that the land resource released remains in agriculture serving export markets. Another strategy is to use the land for non-food purposes. Using biomass energy cropping as a benchmark and assuming a price of £40/tonne dry matter biomass wood, we estimate that replacing the value of the food output of higher quality land released will be challenging, although it is reported that biomass energy is an economically viable alternative to sheep production on uplands.[1] Potential unexpected or unintended consequences Changes to UK crop production The general conclusion that a reduction in livestock production consumption will have little effect in total arable land requirements masks some important regional effects. This scenario will reduce arable crop production for livestock feed and increase arable production for direct human consumption, including a 50% increase in fruit and vegetables. The increase of 0.6 million ha of UK crops for human consumption includes an increase of about 0.2 million ha in potatoes, field vegetables and fruit. Research indicates that agricultural change driven by healthy eating recommendations will result in expansion of production of these crops particularly in the south and east of England.[2] Many of these crops are irrigated and some are protected using for example poly-tunnels. Whilst the change in land use is small in absolute terms, the local effects on water resources and landscape could be significant. It should be noted however that the increase in fresh fruit and vegetable consumption in these scenarios arise from the full implementation of current UK healthy eating guidelines (‘five-a- day') and are not just a consequence reduced livestock product consumption. Potential unexpected or unintended consequencesUneven distribution of economic effects The effect of a contraction in the value of farm output for UK markets will be unevenly distributed. There will be many losers, but also some winners. Given regional land quality characteristics, almost all Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish farmers would be affected by output contraction counterbalanced by output growth in the south and east of England. Effects on overseas land use The reduction in livestock product consumption will have little effect overall on net overseas land needs. Release of land in South America and the USA used for animal feed, especially soy, will be counter-balanced by increases in a wide range of crops elsewhere. The consumption changes also reduce the need for overseas grassland. This affects three countries in particular: Ireland (dairy products, beef), New Zealand (butter and lamb), and South America (beef). The effect on Brazil is now small as imports have dwindled in recent years but the change would close off the UK as a growth market for Brazilian beef in the longer term. The effects on Ireland are particularly significant. •5. ConclusionThis study has clearly shown that UK land can support consumption change that reduces greenhouse gas emissions from the food system. The reduction in land needed to supply the UK that comes with a reduction in livestock product consumption brings potential environmental benefits and significant opportunities to deliver other products, including other ecosystem services, from UK agricultural land. The study has shown that some risks currently argued as arising from consumption change are small. In particular the study shows that arable land needs will not increase if the consumption of livestock products is decreased. The risk that emissions will be exported is also shown to be small. The identification of the significant potential benefits of consumption change combined with the low risks of unintended consequences has far-reaching implications for guidance to consumers and the development of agricultural policy. The results are broadly applicable to other European countries which means they are relevant to international policy development, for example the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. [1] Heaton, R.J., Randerson, P.F., Slater, F.M. 1999. The economics of growing short rotation coppice in the uplands of mid-Wales and an economic comparison with sheep production. Biomass and Bioenergy 17: 59-71. [2] Jones, P.J. and Tranter, R.B. 2007. Modelling the impact of different policy scenarios on farm business management, land use and rural employment Project Document No. 13. Implications of a nutrition driven food policy for land use and the Rural Environment. Work package No
Open Access
Greenhouse gas emissions from UK food and drink consumption by systems LCA: current and possible futures
(2010-09-21T00:00:00Z) Williams, Adrian G.; Chatterton, Julia C.; Murphy-Bokern, Donal; Brander, M.; Audsley, Eric; Notarnicola, B.; Settani, E.; Tassielle, G.; Giungato, P.
This work determined the potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the UK food system by 70% from a 2005 baseline. A food consumption-orientated inventory was produced including primary agricultural production, food processing, distribution, preparation and disposal. Land use change (LUC) used a top-down approach. The inventory used many sources of data ranging from LCA studies to national level reporting of energy use by sectors of the economy and household surveys. The inventory was created with systems models to compare scenarios for emission reduction. The inventory for the baseline was 250MtCO2e including 100MtCO2e from LUC. Emissions without LUC from the UK food consumption system are about 20% of the current total consumption emissions. Several measures to reduce emissions were investigated, including dietary change, technical efficiency improvement, reducing waste and using non-fossil energy. Only a combination of measures achieved the 70% target reduction, but required major societal changes.
Open Access
How low can we go? An assessment of greenhouse gas emissions from the UK food system and the scope reduction by 2050. Report for the WWF and Food Climate Research Network
(2010-03-01T00:00:00Z) Audsley, Eric; Brander, M.; Chatterton, Julia C.; Murphy-Bokern, Donal; Webster, C.; Williams, Adrian G.
The overall aim of this study was to develop a set of scenarios that explore how greenhouse gas emissions from the UK food system may be reduced by 70% by the year 2050. The work is focused on all emissions from the supply chains and systems, not just the emissions from the UK food chain that arise in the UK. The study comprises an audit of the greenhouse gas emissions arising from the UK food economy and an examination of the scope for substantial reductions of these emissions.
Open Access
The impact of future socio-economic and climate changes on agricultural land use and the wider environment in East Anglia and North West England using a metamodel system
(Springer Science Business Media, 2008-01-01T00:00:00Z) Audsley, Eric; Pearn, Kerry R.; Harrison, P. A.; Berry, P. M.
This paper describes a procedure to use a model interactively to investigate future land use by studying a wide range of scenarios defining climate, technological and socio-economic changes. A full model run of several hours has been replaced by a metamodel version which takes a few seconds, and provides the user with an immediate visual output and with the ability to examine easily which factors have the greatest effect. The Regional Impact Simulator combines a model of agricultural land use choices linked with models of urban growth, flooding risk, water quality and consequences for wildlife to estimate plausible futures of agricultural land on a timescale of 20–50 years. The model examines the East Anglian and North West regions of the United Kingdom at a grid resolution of 5 × 5 km, and for each scenario estimates the most likely cropping and its profitability at each location, and classifies land use as arable, intensive or extensive grassland or abandoned. From a modelling viewpoint the metamodel approach enables iteration. It is thus possible to determine how product prices change so that production meets demand. The results of the study show that in East Anglia cropping remains quite stable over a wide range of scenarios, though grassland is eliminated in scenarios with the 2050s High climate scenario – almost certainly due to the low yield in the drier conditions. In the North West there is a very much greater range of outcomes, though all scenarios suggest a reduction in grassland with the greatest in the 2050s High climate scenario combined with the “Regional Stewardship” (environmental) socio-economic scenario. The effects of the predicted changes in land use on plant species showed suitability for species to vary greatly, particularly between the socio-economic scenarios, due to detrimental effects from increases in nitrogen fertilisation. A complete simulation with the Regional Impact Simulator takes around 15 seconds (computer-dependent), which users who responded felt was adequate or better than adequate. The main areas for future improvement, such as the speed of the system, user interaction and the accuracy and detail of the modelling, are co
Open Access
Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation
(IOP, 2019-10-04) Lee, Heera; Brown, Calum; Seo, Bumsuk; Holman, Ian P.; Audsley, Eric; Cojocaru, George; Rounsevell, Mark
Land-based mitigation, particularly through afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation, is an important component of the 'Paris Agreement' to limit average global temperature increases to between 1.5 and 2 ◦C. However, the specific actions that would ensure sufficient carbon sequestration in forests remain unclear, as do their trade-offs against other land-based objectives. We use a regional integrated assessment model to identify the conditions under which European forests reach the extent required by mitigation targets. We compare stylised scenarios of changes in meat demand, bioenergy crop production, irrigation efficiency, and crop yield improvement. Only 42 out of 972 model simulations achieved minimum levels of food provision and forest extent without the need to change dietary preferences, but relied on crop yield improvements within Europe of at least 30%. Maintaining food imports at today's levels to avoid the potential displacement of food production and deforestation required at least a 15 % yield improvement, or a drastic reduction in meat consumption (avg. 57 %). The results suggest that the large-scale afforestation/reforestation planned in European targets is virtually impossible to achieve without transformation of the food system, making it unlikely that Europe will play its required role in global efforts to limit climate change without utilising land beyond its borders.
Open Access
An interactive multi-scale integrated assessment of future regional water availability for agricultural irrigation in East Anglia and North West England.
(Springer Science Business Media, 2008-09-01T00:00:00Z) Henriques, C.; Holman, Ian P.; Audsley, Eric; Pearn, Kerry R.
A multi-scale approach has linked farm level decisions with regional water availability assessments that allow for environmental water needs and the competing demands for water. This is incorporated within a user-interactive software tool, enabling the impact of a range of variables to be easily examined. Climate change leads to increased potential irrigation demand in East Anglia and North West England. Under baseline socio-economic conditions, results suggest that such increased future water demands can be met in the North West, but in the drier East Anglian region are counter to the decreasing water availability under all climate scenarios. The decreasing availability is moderated or exacerbated according to the environmental priorities of the future socio-economic scenarios. Under economically focussed regional futures, water supply availability increases at the expense of the environment, despite high water demands. Under environmentally focussed futures, demand restrictions are needed due to the further decreased water availability as a consequence of the high environmental priority. Results show that the effectiveness of water pricing for reducing irrigation demand is also scenario-dependent. Where regional food production is important, irrigation demand is relatively price- insensitive and abstraction controls will be most effective, whereas in a global market-drive future, irrigation demand is shown to be price-sensitive.
Open Access
Interactively modelling land profitability to estimate European agricultural and forest land use under future scenarios of climate, socio-economics and adaptation
(Springer Verlag, 2014-07-01) Audsley, Eric; Trnka, M.; Sabate, Santiago; Maspons, Joan; Sanchez, Anabel; Sandars, Daniel L.; Balek, Jan; Pearn, Kerry R.
Studies of climate change impacts on agricultural land use generally consider sets of climates combined with fixed socio-economic scenarios, making it impossible to compare the impact of specific factors within these scenario sets. Analysis of the impact of specific scenario factors is extremely difficult due to prohibitively long run-times of the complex models. This study produces and combines metamodels of crop and forest yields and farm profit, derived from previously developed very complex models, to enable prediction of European land use under any set of climate and socio-economic data. Land use is predicted based on the profitability of the alternatives on every soil within every 10' grid across the EU. A clustering procedure reduces 23,871 grids with 20+ soils per grid to 6,714 clusters of common soil and climate. Combined these reduce runtime 100 thousand-fold. Profit thresholds define land as intensive agriculture (arable or grassland), extensive agriculture or managed forest, or finally unmanaged forest or abandoned land. The demand for food as a function of population, imports, food preferences and bioenergy, is a production constraint, as is irrigation water available. An iteration adjusts prices to meet these constraints. A range of measures are derived at 10' grid-level such as diversity as well as overall EU production. There are many ways to utilise this ability to do rapidWhat-If analysis of both impact and adaptations. The paper illustrates using two of the 5 different GCMs (CSMK3, HADGEM with contrasting precipitation and temperature) and two of the 4 different socio-economic scenarios ("We are the world", "Should I stay or should I go" which have contrasting demands for land), exploring these using two of the 13 scenario parameters (crop breeding for yield and population) . In the first scenario, population can be increased by a large amount showing that food security is far from vulnerable. In the second scenario increasing crop yield shows that it improves the food security problem.
Open Access
A model of the effect of fungicides on disease-induced yield loss, for use in wheat disease management decision support systems
(Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2007-08-15T00:00:00Z) Milne, Alice E.; Paveley, Neil; Audsley, Eric; Parsons, David J.
A model of the effect of foliar-applied fungicides on disease-induced yield loss is described, parameterised and tested. The effects of fungicides on epidemics of Septoria tritici (leaf blotch), Puccinia striiformis (yellow rust), Blumeria graminis f.sp. tritici (powdery mildew) and Puccinia triticina (brown rust) on winter wheat were simulated using dose-response curve parameters. Where two or more active substances were applied together, their joint action was estimated using an additive dose model where the active substances had the same mode of action or a multiplicative survival model where the modes of action differed. By coupling the model with models of wheat canopy growth and foliar disease published previously, it was possible to estimate disease-induced yield loss for a prescribed fungicide programme. The difference in green canopy area and, hence, interception of photosynthetically active radiation between simulated undiseased and diseased (but treated) crop canopies was used to estimate yield loss. The model was tested against data front field experiments across a range of sites, seasons and wheat cultivars and was shown to predict the observed disease-induced yield loss with sufficient accuracy to support fungicide treatment decisions. A simple method Of accounting for uncertainty in the predictions of yield loss is described. Fungicide product, dose and spray timing combinations selected using the coupled models responded appropriately to disease pressure and cultivar disease resistance.
Open Access
A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: Part I. Methodology
(Springer Science Business Media, 2005-07-01T00:00:00Z) Holman, Ian P.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Shackley, S.; Harrison, P. A.; Nicholls, R. J.; Berry, P. M.; Audsley, Eric
Policy makers and stakeholders are increasingly demanding impact assessments which produce policy-relevant guidance on the local impacts of global climate change. The 'Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England' (RegIS) study developed a methodology for stakeholder- led, regional climate change impact assessment that explicitly evaluated local and regional (sub-national) scale impacts and adaptation options, and cross- sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coasts and floodplains and water resources). The 'Drivers-Pressure-State-Impact-Response' (DPSIR) approach provided a structure for linking the modelling and scenario techniques. A 5x5 km grid was chosen for numerical modelling input (climate and socio-economic scenarios) and output, as a compromise between the climate scenario resolution (10x10 km) and the detailed spatial resolution output desired by stakeholders. Fundamental methodological issues have been raised by RegIS which reflect the difficulty of multi-sectoral modelling studies at local scales. In particular, the role of scenarios, error propagation in linked models, model validity, transparency and transportability as well as the use of integrated assessment to evaluate adaptation options to climate change are examined. Integrated assessments will provide new insights which will compliment those derived by more detailed sectoral assessments.
Open Access
A regional, multi-sectoral and integrated assessment of the impacts of climate and socio-economic change in the UK: Part II. Results
(Springer Science Business Media, 2005-07-01T00:00:00Z) Holman, Ian P.; Nicholls, R. J.; Berry, P. M.; Harrison, P. A.; Audsley, Eric; Shackley, S.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.
The ‘Regional Climate Change Impact and Response Studies in East Anglia and North West England’ (RegIS) integrated assessment (IA) investigated climate and socio-economic impacts and adaptation options, and cross-sectoral interactions between four major sectors driving landscape change (agriculture, biodiversity, coastal zones and water resources). The baseline and two contrasting climate change scenarios (with and without regional socio-economic change scenarios) were investigated. RegIS showed that climate change, without policy adaptation, could lead to severe flood impacts in East Anglia, and significant agricultural abandonment. Despite yield changes, cropping is generally insensitive to climate, but very sensitive to socio-economic change. There is increased seasonality to river flows, compounded by increased urbanisation and irrigation demand. The responses of biodiversity to climate change are regional, habitat and species-specific, but much of the future of biodiversity in these regions will depend on planned adaptation in the other sectors. Numerous examples of public engagement with the global change sphere represent the real outward value of RegIS, due to the significant uncertainties and limitations to knowledge in this first regional IA which prevented results of the detail, specificity and confidence that decision-makers required. However, with further investment and refinement, regional IA’s will increasingly provide such o