Browsing by Author "Angus, Andrew"
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Item Open Access Agricultural Futures and Implications for the Environment.(2005-11-01T00:00:00Z) Morris, Joe; Audsley, Eric; Wright, Iain A.; McLeod, Jim; Pearn, Kerry R.; Angus, Andrew; Rickard, SeanIn this context, the overall aim of project is to explore possible long term futures for agriculture in England and Wales in order to inform decision-making on environmental policy and provide a 2 framework for Defra research on sustainable agriculture, climate change and other environmental issues.Item Open Access Analysing the impact of corporate governance on corporate sustainability at board level.(Cranfield University, 2021-06) Bolourian, Soudabeh; Angus, Andrew; Alinaghian, LeilaStakeholders are increasingly holding companies accountable for their environmental and social conduct. Organisations are engaging in, and incorporating, social and environmental issues in their business models, organisational structures and processes. The board of directors are responsible for the overall achievement and oversight of the organisation’s aims and objectives. However, there is little detail on the board’s role in monitoring and overseeing social and environmental issues in the corporate governance realm. This thesis addresses this void in several ways. First a systematic literature review provides a comprehensive synthesis of the extant literature investigating the board of director’s role as a core element of corporate governance in corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance. Critical assessment of a sample of 67 studies from 18 highly regarded scholarly journals published between 1992 and 2020 uncovers similarities and inconsistencies regarding the effects of various board attributes on CSR-performance. The review reveals these attributes do not work in isolation, but interact with each other and the context in which they are embedded in shaping CSR-performance. Second, empirical analysis of a cross-industry sample of 2891 firm-year observations from 789 FTSE350 and S&P500 listed companies during a 4-year period (2013-2016) investigates the role of the board attributes in driving CSR-performance. The influence of the board-level CSR-committee – a board attribute that despite the increased prevalence of such committees on the board is largely understudied – in driving CSR-performance is explored. This contributes to the growing literature on CSR-committees by investigating their presence, composition and interactive effects with various board attributes in driving CSR-performance. Additionally, contributing to the recent call for investigating interactions among board attributes and their impact on CSR-performance. Finally a configurational approach is used to further explore board attribute interactions and combined impacts on CSR- performance. The results of a Qualitative Comparative Analysis reveals nine board configurations leading to high CSR-performance. This contributes to the argument that “one-size” does not fit all, and different boards can achieve the same results via unique configurations of attributes.Item Open Access Better by design: Business preferences for environmental regulatory reform(Elsevier, 2015-01-26) Taylor, Christopher Michael; Pollard, Simon J. T.; Rocks, Sophie A.; Angus, AndrewWe present the preferences for environmental regulatory reform expressed by 30 UK businesses and industry bodies from 5 sectors. While five strongly preferred voluntary regulation, seven expressed doubts about its effectiveness, and 18 expressed no general preference between instrument types. Voluntary approaches were valued for flexibility and lower burdens, but direct regulation offered stability and a level playing field. Respondents sought regulatory frameworks that: are coherent; balance clarity, prescription and flexibility; are enabled by positive regulatory relationships; administratively efficient; targeted according to risk magnitude and character; evidence-based and that deliver long-term market stability for regulatees. Anticipated differences in performance between types of instrument can be undermined by poor implementation. Results underline the need for policy makers and regulators to tailor an effective mix of instruments for a given sector, and to overcome analytical, institutional and political barriers to greater coherence, to better coordinate existing instruments and tackle new environmental challenges as they emerge.Item Open Access A cluster analysis of investment strategies in the offshore wind energy market(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, 2017-08-18) Ioannou, Anastasia; Vaienti, Claudio; Angus, Andrew; Brennan, Feargal P.This paper maps different investor strategies in the offshore wind energy market based on data from existing wind farms in the UK. This is realized through the employment of cluster analysis, which classifies offshore wind energy investors - who have purchased equity stakes-in terms of the entry timing, exit timing, purchase timing and stake purchased. We, then, perform a SWOT analysis to identify the major strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats encountered by each cluster of stakeholders. Cluster analysis revealed the existence of three distinct investment strategy profiles: i) Late entry investors, ii) Pre-commissioning investors, and iii) Own-build-transfer investors. Corporate and institutional investors tend to be late entry investors, whose strategy is based on buying assets while they are fully operational avoiding construction risks, retaining a risk aversion profile. The exit timing of OEMs and EPCI contractors usually takes place before or right after the commissioning of the wind farm. Finally, major Utilities tend to keep the operating assets on their balance sheet and divest only part of them (mostly minority stakes) during the operating stage; Independent energy companies are found in both 2nd and 3rd cluster; however, exceptions may be observed.Item Open Access Critical reflections on designing product service systems(Taylor and Francis, 2015-04-28) Dewberry, Emma; Cook, Matthew; Angus, Andrew; Gottberg, Annika; Longhurst, Philip J.In response to unsustainability and the prospect of resource scarcity, lifestyles dominated by resource throughput are being challenged. This paper focuses on a design experiment that sought to introduce alternative resource consumption pathways in the form of product service systems (PSS) to satisfy household demand and reduce consumer durable household waste. In contrast to many other PSS examples this project did not begin with sustainability benefits, rather the preferences of supply and demand actors and the bounded geographical locations represented by two UK housing developments. The paper addresses the process through which the concept PSS were designed, selected and evaluated, alongside the practical and commercial parameters of the project. It proposes the need for a shift to further emphasize the importance of the design imperative in creating different PSS outcomes that reorganize relationships between people, resources and the environment.Item Open Access Dilemma of natural resource abundance: a case study of Kuwait(SAGE, 2020-01-26) Aljarallah, Ruba A.; Angus, AndrewThere is a lively debate about the relationship between a nation’s natural resource abundance and economic growth. Some view natural resource abundance as a curse, whereas others view it as a blessing. This study examines the economic, social, and political effects of resource abundance in an oil-rich country, Kuwait, using data from 1984 to 2014. This study analyzes the short- and long-run impacts of resource rents on per capita gross domestic product (GDP), productivity, human capital, and institutional quality. The study reveals through autoregressive distributed lag modeling and error correction modeling that resource rents increase per capita GDP merely in the short-run; however, resource rents deteriorate productivity, human capital, and institutional quality in both the short and the long-run. These results indicate that, for Kuwait, the overreliance on its natural resources has been detrimental over the long-run. The study suggests that there is a need to improve the quality of institutions and enhance the level of human capital to get economic sustainability and development over time.Item Open Access The dilemma of natural resource dependency in gulf countries.(Cranfield University, 2019-08) Aljarallah, Ruba Abdullah; Angus, AndrewNatural resources (NR) serve as useful inputs and vital raw materials for domestic industries, which stimulate and secure sustained economic growth and development. However, the notion that the richness of NR can be translated into a curse rather than a blessing has long been an overarching topic of research for both academics and policymakers. The wealth of NR has noticeable socioeconomic and political impacts that vary among resource-rich countries. Given the importance of the Gulf Countries and their dependency on income from NR, the present study thoroughly analyzes the socioeconomic and political aspects of NR dependency in Kuwait (KWT), the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Firstly, this study examines the economic aspects of NR dependency by taking per capita GDP (PGDP) and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) as dependent variables. Secondly, this study examines the political aspects of NR dependency by taking institutional quality as the dependent variable. Lastly, the present study examines the social aspects of NR dependency by taking human capital as the dependent variable. This study applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and co-integration technique by using time-series data from 1984 to 2014. The results indicate that, in the long-run, dependency on NR has a positive impact on PGDP in the KSA and the UAE, but the relationship is insignificant in KWT. Then, it is found that NR dependency shows a positive impact on TFP in the KSA and a negative impact in KWT, while the relationship is insignificant in the UAE. The results reveal that, in the long-run, institutional quality deteriorates as a result of NR dependency in KWT, but this relation is insignificant in the KSA and the UAE. The results of co-integration illustrate that NR dependency dampens human capital in the three countries in the long-run.Item Open Access Effect of electricity market price uncertainty modelling on the profitability assessment of offshore wind energy through an integrated lifecycle techno-economic model(IOP Publishing, 2018-10-10) Ioannou, Anastasia; Angus, Andrew; Brennan, FeargalAccording to the Contracts for Difference (CfD) scheme introduced to support the deployment of offshore wind installations, an electricity generation party is paid the difference between a constant "strike price" (determined be means of a competitive auction) and the average UK market electricity price for every MWh of power output produced. The scheme lasts for 15 years, after which the electricity output is sold on the average market price. To this end, estimating the long term profitability of the investment greatly depends on the forecasted market prices. This paper presents the simulation results of future electricity prices based on three different simulation methods, namely: the Geometric Brownian motion (GBM), the Autoregressive Integrated Moving average (ARIMA) and a model combining Mean-Reversion and Jump-Diffusion (MRJD) processes. A number of simulation paths are generated for a time horizon of 10 years and they are introduced to a fully integrated techno-economic model developed by the authors. As a result, joint probability distributions of the NPV derived from the three different methods are presented. This study is relevant to investors and policy makers to check the viability of an investment and to predict its stochastic temporal return profile.Item Open Access Environmental regulation in transition: Policy officials’ views of regulatory instruments and their mapping to environmental risks(Elsevier, 2018-07-29) Taylor, Christopher; Gallagher, Elaine; Pollard, Simon J. T.; Rocks, Sophie A.; Smith, Heather M.; Leinster, Paul; Angus, AndrewThis study re-analysed 14 semi-structured interviews with policy officials from the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) to explore the use of a variety of regulatory instruments and different levels of risk across 14 policy domains and 18 separately named risks. Interviews took place within a policy environment of a better regulation agenda and of broader regulatory reform. Of 619 (n) coded references to 5 categories of regulatory instrument, ‘command and control’ regulation (n = 257) and support mechanisms (n = 118) dominated the discussions, with a preference for ‘command and control’ cited in 8 of the policy domains. A framing analysis revealed officials' views on instrument effectiveness, including for sub-categories of the 5 key instruments. Views were mixed, though notably positive for economic instruments including taxation, fiscal instruments and information provision. An overlap analysis explored officials' mapping of public environmental risks to instrument types suited to their management. While officials frequently cite risk concepts generally within discussions, the extent of overlap for risks of specific significance was low across all risks. Only ‘command and control’ was mapped to risks of moderate significance in likelihood and impact severity. These results show that policy makers still prefer ‘command and control’ approaches when a certainty of outcome is sought and that alternative means are sought for lower risk situations. The detailed reasons for selection, including the mapping of certain instruments to specific risk characteristics, is still developing.Item Open Access Ethical challenges for employees in a time of pandemics and advances in artificial intelligence; or “is our psychology relevant any more”?(European Association of Work and Organizational Psychology (EAWOP), 2023-05-27) Kwiatkowski, Richard; Angus, Andrew; Aktas, EmelOur work is at an unusual intersection of professional psychology and professional business ethics. We partnered in an international survey examining ethical and unethical behaviour in industry. We make longitudinal comparisons of ethical behaviour with a focus on the ethical implications of Covid19 and the growing role of Artificial Intelligence in the work environment and in social lives.Item Open Access An evidence base and critique for environmental regulatory reform(Cranfield University, 2013-12) Taylor, Christopher Michael; Pollard, Simon; Angus, AndrewSocieties have established various forms of governance to protect the natural environment from the adverse effects of human activity. While direct “command and control” regulation has achieved significant improvements in environmental protection, concerns for its efficiency have led governments to seek alternative approaches to achieve environmental policy objectives. Commentators describe a shift from “government” to “governance” as policy makers and regulators seek to harness wider social forces beyond government, while risk-based regulation is pursued to target constrained regulatory resources for maximum effect. However, robust evidence for the effectiveness of different forms of regulation is lacking. This thesis addresses this gap, providing an evidence base for instrument selection and a data-informed critique of regulatory reform practice. Research followed a case study strategy, gathering qualitative data through 58 in-depth semi-structured interviews, analysed using the NVIVO™ Computer Aided Qualitative Data Analysis System (CAQDAS), with senior policy makers at the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, England (Defra) and senior executives in businesses and trade associations in 5 UK sectors. (1) A new typology of regulatory instruments has been compiled, validated with sector experts, refined for policy end-users, and published as part of Defra’s guidance on instrument selection. (2) The critical case of instrument selection in practice at Defra has been examined for the first time, revealing factors affecting choice, the use of coregulation to develop evidence and the importance of retaining policy maker skills for new forms of regulation. (3) A multiple-case study of senior business representatives found five strongly preferred voluntary regulation, seven expressed significant doubts about its effectiveness, and 19 expressed no general preference. While voluntary approaches were valued for flexibility and lower burdens, direct regulation offered stability and a level playing field. They sought inter alia coherent, evidence based regulatory frameworks, delivered through positive regulatory relationships. This research progresses the better and smarter regulation debate on the use of alternatives to direct regulation and has already been used to inform policy making in practice.Item Open Access Exploring the potential of impact investing to catalyse transitioning to a circular economy.(Cranfield University, 2023-03) Bilewu, Omotayo; Nellis, Joe; Angus, AndrewThere is an overwhelming need to address global social and environmental challenges, alongside an increasing recognition that ‘good business’ is intertwined with ‘doing good’. The emergence of impact investing as an investment vehicle to ‘intentionally’ tackle societal challenges, such as those captured within the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, alongside generating financial returns is proving attractive to investors and asset managers. This doctoral thesis seeks to provide insights in response to calls for rigorous academic studies towards building institutional legitimacy that should increase market confidence and capital allocation. It starts by investigating the connections between impact investing and the circular economy - two concepts that have generated increased interest in parallel over the last decade. The review reveals that the attributes of impact investing suggest it could play a pivotal role in accelerating the transition to a circular economy. Using a social exchange theory lens, the evolving exchange modalities between investors, intermediaries, and investee companies in the impact investing ecosystem is examined. The results show that a nexus of activities influenced by formal and informal norms govern behaviours and expectations. These norms are crucial in the relational exchange between impact investors, intermediaries and investee companies. A conceptual framework emerges from the study to guide impact investing practice. Furthermore, a single embedded case study is conducted to explore how the exchange partners engage with behaviour change interventions that substitute trust with a mutual opportunity to incorporate sustainable development initiatives in the delivery of an affordable housing development. The findings indicate that mutual goals increase collaboration and cooperation, but are curtailed by the outcome of cost benefit analysis which impinges on trust. Nevertheless, there is scope for impact investors to encourage the uptake of circular economy principles through education and awareness with learning reinforced in project specific facilitated workshop settings.Item Embargo Exploring the role of board-level corporate social responsibility committees in corporate social responsibility performance: a configurational approach(Elsevier, 2023-09-22) Bolourian, Soudabeh; Alinaghian, Leila; Angus, AndrewBoard attributes interrelate with one another and the environment in which they are embedded in forming corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance, resulting in configurations of board attributes. By embracing a configurational approach, this study aims to investigate how the CSR-committee as a board structure interacts within different configurations of director characteristics (female-directors, director’s age, tenure, and experience) and other board structures (non-executive directors, CEO-duality, board-size) in shaping CSR-performance. The results of a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) of 789 FTSE350 and S&P500 listed companies during a 4-year period (2013–2016) reveals nine board configurations leading to high CSR-performance, six containing the CSR-committee. Three board archetypes were identified. Their formation is shaped on main differences seen amongst them, leading to distinct archetypes: committee-boards, experience-boards, and hybrid-boards. The result of the configurational approach agrees with the argument “one-size” does not fit all, and different boards can achieve the same results via unique configurations.Item Open Access Exploring the usefulness of a simple linear regression model for understanding price movements of selected recycled materials in UK.(Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2012-03-31T00:00:00Z) Angus, Andrew; Rivas Casado, Monica; Fitzsimons, DThe price volatility of recycled materials exposes many different organisations to financial and regulatory risk. These risks can be partially mitigated by improved understanding of price volatility using econometric models, although these have tended to be sophisticated autoregressive models, beyond the analytical capability or cost structure of the average market participant. In this context, this study explores the use of a simple linearregression model to understand the behaviour of prices for recycled plastic, recovered paper and glass, based on the price of their primary inputs, with a specific focus on the UK market. The results of the simple regression model are compared with a wavelet analysis to determine what information is lost in the trade off with simplicity. Both models found significant relationships between the price of crude oil/ethylene/naphtha and recycled plastics and it appears that there is no loss in model performance by using oil as the explanatory variable, rather than direct inputs (ethylene/naphtha). However, few correlations were found for recovered paper and glass. Initial findings from the wavelet analysis suggest that since 2004 the oil price has become more closely linked to the price of recycled plastics. It must be noted that this study is exploratory and particular dynamics of UK markets for recycled materials may affect price development in a way that would not be repeated on international markets.Item Open Access Food, land and greenhouse gases The effect of changes in UK food consumption on land requirements and greenhouse gas emissions. Report for the Committee on Climate Change.(2010-12-21T00:00:00Z) Audsley, Eric; Angus, Andrew; Chatterton, Julia C.; Graves, Anil R.; Morris, Joe; Murphy-Bokern, Donal; Pearn, Kerry R.; Sandars, Daniel L.; Williams, Adrian G.EXECUTIVE SUMMARY •1. Key findingsThis study examines the land use and greenhouse gas implications of UK food consumption change away from carbon intensive products. It shows that the UK agricultural land base can support increased consumption of plant-based products arising from the reduced consumption of livestock products. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption reduces the area of arable and grassland required to supply UK food, both in the UK and overseas. It also reduces emissions of greenhouse gases from primary production by 19%. A switch from beef or sheepmeat (red meat) to pork or poultry (white meat) reduces food consumption related greenhouse gas emissions and the land area required but increases overseas arable land use. With this exception, the release of arable land now used to grow animal feed exceeds the additional arable land required for increased plant based foods in both the UK and overseas. Reducing livestock product consumption also has the potential to enable delivery of other significant environmental benefits, for example, reductions in ammonia and nitrate emissions. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption reduces UK grassland needs for UK food production by several million hectares. This land could be used to supply livestock products for export markets although our scenarios assume that the proportions of imports, domestic production and exports remain constant. In these circumstances, some of the grassland released could be used to produce arable crops, including crops for biofuel production. Almost all of it could be converted to woodland or managed in other ways for biodiversity and/or amenity purposes. Conversion of this land resource to woodland has significant potential to increase soil carbon storage while supplying biomass for energy. Scenario Cropped area required, kha Grassland area required, kha Total area, kha Greenhouse gas emissions, kt CO2e/ year * UK OS Total UK OS Total UK OS Total Baseline 3,388 4,458 7,846 11,228 1,944 13,172 21,018 51,693 29,001 80,694 50% reduction in livestock with land release priority: Uniform 3,123 4,131 7,254 4,161 700 4,861 12,115 36,282 29,456 65,738 Maximise non-tillable land release 3,123 4,131 7,254 2,905 700 3,605 10,859 36,246 29,451 65,697 Maximise release of tillable land 3,123 4,131 7,254 7,102 700 7,802 15,056 36,282 29,457 65,739 Red to white meat with land release priority: Uniform 3,443 4,908 8,351 3,879 486 4,365 12,716 45,812 27,575 73,387 Maximise release of non-tillable land 3,443 4,909 8,352 2,909 486 3,395 11,747 45,867 27,572 73,439 Maximise release of tillable land 3,443 4,908 8,351 6,947 486 7,433 15,784 45,878 27,575 73,453 50% reduction in white meat consumption: Uniform 3,201 3,735 6,936 11,228 1,944 13,172 20,108 49,525 28,500 78,025 * The greenhouse gas emissions do not include possible effects of land use changeSummary table. The area of land needed to supply UK food and the greenhouse gas emissions from food production under current circumstances and under the seven scenarios studied. In a reduction scenario, concentrating remaining livestock production on different land types (e.g. concentrating on intensive production on lowland farms versus extensive production on lower quality land) has little effect on greenhouse gas emissions from primary production. This indicates that there is relatively little scope to reduce emissions by restructuring production (at least restructuring in relation to land use). It is further noted that concentrating livestock production on higher quality land would cause an almost complete closure of production for UK markets on land not suited to intensive grass or arable production, with biodiversity and economic impacts (discussed further below). The risks of unintended consequences with respect to greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low given the assumptions in the scenarios, but the actuality of such change will depend on future economic, social and political drivers. The report includes detailed analyses of land use and emissions data together with extensive discussion of a wide range of effects based on literature analysis. •2. Study objectivesThis study was conducted for the UK Government's Committee on Climate Change (CCC) to examine if UK agriculture can support consumption change away from carbon- intensive food products. For the purposes of the consumption scenarios, it is assumed the relationships between imports, exports and domestic consumption remain constant for each of the commodities used by the UK food system. The following questions were addressed: 1. Land needs: Given land quality considerations (e.g. land capability and constraints), to what extent is it possible to support a change in the UK consumption of meat and dairy products with a corresponding increase in substitute goods from UK agricultural land? Can a reduction in meat and dairy product consumption release land for other purposes? To what use would this freed-up land be suitable (e.g. food production, biomass production, carbon sequestration, other ecosystem service provision, forestry, etc.)? 2. Greenhouse gas emissions: What are the implications of the transition in production for GHGs both in the UK and abroad (including soil carbon releases, sequestration, reduced production of feed, etc, as well as reductions in direct N2O and CH4 emissions? 3. Other effects: What are the other implications, including for water, other pollutants, farm incomes, availability of manure as a fertiliser input, public health, ecosystem services, biodiversity, and animal welfare? 4. International implications: If UK agricultural land cannot support consumption changes, what are the international implications in terms of agricultural production and land-use displacement (e.g. deforestation, land for biofuels, land for food), and GHGs?•3. MethodsWe developed and used a combination of consumption and production scenarios to examine potential consequences of change. Life-cycle assessment (mainly life cycle inventory analysis) was applied to these scenarios to examine the overall effects of the consumption change on GHG and other emissions from primary production, in the UK and overseas. The production under the various scenarios was allocated to agricultural land resources by a combination of survey-based data analysis and model-derived calculations. Land use change (LUC) emissions (from changing soil C and biomass stocks) were calculated from data in the UK national inventory as well as from the UK Renewable Fuel Agency for overseas land types. Commodity flows as affected by consumption were calculated from FAOSTAT and Defra data. The resulting emissions were allocated to the various inventories in which they are registered, e.g. the UK's GHG inventories for agriculture, LUC, energy use and industry, together with those from overseas that are made up by components from our UK consumption of food and drink. Scientific literature relevant to the wider assessment of these scenarios was analysed (and an ecosystems services method was applied) to enable a qualitative assessment to complement the quantitative analysis. ScenariosWe designed a range of consumption and production scenarios to examine options on both the demand and supply sides. These comprise three consumption and three production scenarios. The consumption scenarios are as follows: Consumption Scenario 1. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption balanced by increases in plant commodities. Consumption Scenario 2. A shift from red meat (beef and lamb) to white meat (pork and poultry). Red meat consumption is reduced by 75%. Consumption Scenario 3. A 50% reduction in white meat consumption balanced by increases in plant commodities. It must be stressed that the nature of scenarios is such that they contain a variety of assumptions about possible future demands and supplies of agricultural commodities. The scenarios are not forecasts. The focus has been on the technical capacity of land and agricultural production, not on the market changes needed to enable change. It should be noted that the balance of supply from the UK and overseas is assumed to remain as it is now. The 50% reduction in livestock products was not applied uniformly across these commodities. Under the reduction scenario (Consumption scenario 1), consumption of milk and eggs is 60% of current consumption, and meat consumption is 36% of current consumption. Sugar consumption is also reduced to align with healthy eating guidelines. Reduction in consumption of livestock products is balanced by increasing plant consumption on the basis of constant food energy supplied. Fruit and vegetable consumption was increased by 50% and basic carbohydrate (e.g. cereals, potatoes) and oil rich commodities (except palm oil) by 33%. Substitution was estimated on the basis of food energy use at the commodity level using FAOSTAT data. Expert opinion was obtained in relation to the viability of consumption change under Scenario 1. This indicated that diets at the consumer level under this scenario are viable from a nutritional viewpoint. It was also noted that Consumption Scenario 1 aligns with healthy eating guidelines in other countries. The production scenarios are focused on the intensity of use of different types of land. The result is a difference in the quantity and type of land ‘released' from production from change that reduces land needs. The production scenarios are: Production Scenario 1. Uniform land release - ‘pro-rata' changes in land requirements across land types. Production Scenario 2. Maximise release of tillable land - ruminant meat production concentrated on lower quality land. Production Scenario 3. Maximise release of low quality land - ruminant meat production concentrated on high quality land. The combination of consumption scenarios 1 and 2 and three production scenarios gives a total of 6 system scenarios. These are complemented by Consumption Scenario 3 giving a total of 7. •4. ResultsLand needsAll consumption change scenarios reduce the total amount of land estimated as required to support the UK food system. A switch from red to white meat increases the need for overseas arable land, although a larger area of UK land that can be tilled is released. Under a reduction scenario, the amount of extra land required for the direct consumption of plant products is less than the amount of arable land released from livestock feed production. The net effect on total overseas arable land needs is a reduction of about 311,000 ha and a net release of about 265,000 ha arable land in the UK. The need for grassland is greatly reduced. The release of grassland with some arable potential ranges between 1.6 to 3.7 million ha depending on where remaining production is concentrated. The release of grassland with no arable potential ranges from 0.7 to 6.9 million ha. Under a reduction scenario, concentrating remaining production on better quality land would almost entirely eliminate sheep and beef production for the UK from the hills, most uplands and less productive lowland areas. Under Consumption Scenario 2 (a shift from beef and sheepmeat to white meat from pigs and poultry), the diet needs of pigs and poultry result in a net increase in demand for overseas grown crops, although considerably more potentially arable land is released in the UK. More arable cropping is needed both in the UK (an additional 55,000 ha) and to a much greater extent overseas (about an additional 466,000 ha), driven largely by soy. However, the release of arable quality grassland in the UK exceeds the increase in overseas arable landed needed for producing this feed. The result is a net release of between 1.6 and 2.9million ha potentially arable land in the UK plus the release of 1.3 to 6.6 millionha of land suitable only for grassland. Under Consumption Scenario 3 (a 50% reduction in white meat consumption balanced by an increase in plant products) the changes are much less complex with no changes in grassland needs. Increases in demand for arable land for direct human consumption amounted to about 154,000 and 172,000 ha (domestic and overseas respectively), but these are more than compensated for by the release of arable land from feed production (341,000 and 668,000ha domestic and overseas respectively). Focusing a reduced cattle and sheep industry on non- arable land would result in the release of substantially more tillable land (currently grassland). In a 50% livestock production consumption reduction scenario, maximising the use of lower grade land (semi-natural grassland, hill land etc.) releases 3.7 million of tillable grassland (including 1.3million ha of good arable land). The opposite approach of withdrawing production from less capable land releases just 1.7 millionha of potentially arable land, with almost no release of the grassland well suited for to arable production. The land-use trade-off is therefore clear. Under a 50% livestock consumption reduction scenario, 2 million ha of tillable grassland is required to compensate for the withdrawal of cattle and sheep production from 6.9 million ha of non-tillable grassland. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption opens up the opportunity to release about half of UK land currently used for UK food supplies if remaining production is concentrated on the more capable land. If land is released uniformly, almost two-thirds of this release takes place on grassland not suited to arable production and the remaining third is grassland with some arable potential. There would be with higher levels of land release in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland than in England. Depending on where the remaining production takes place, a large proportion of land released may be very unproductive, but it can be assumed that about 5 million ha with potential for other agricultural uses would be available, for example for the production of livestock for export (if they did not reduce their livestock consumption), for producing arable biofuel crops, planted woodland and re-wilding (to natural woodland in many cases). Greenhouse gas emissionsAll consumption scenarios reduce greenhouse gas emissions from primary production. The largest reduction is from a livestock reduction scenario (Consumption Scenario 1): from 81 to 66MtCO2e (19% reduction). The switch from red to white meat reduces emissions by 9% and a 50% reduction in white meat consumption by only 3%. The net effect on emissions depends greatly on the alternative use of the grassland released from food production. The study indicates the range of possible consequences on soil and biomass fluxes. If all tillable grassland released from food production was converted to arable use, 8 to 17MtCO2e per year would be released over 20 years through the effects of land use change. Converting all released land with the potential to support good tree growth to woodland would cause a net carbon uptake equivalent to about 7.5 to 9.5MtCO2e per year in soil and wood per year over 20 years. Land use preference (e.g. focusing remaining production on high quality land) has little effect on emissions. This is an important result indicating that supply chain emissions are unresponsive to changes in industry structure with respect to the land used. The location of emissions reductions (UK or overseas) was identified. Currently, we estimate that 36% of primary production emissions are overseas. All scenarios reduce UK emissions while Consumption Scenario 1 has little effect on overseas emissions and Consumption Scenario 2 reduces overseas emissions by 5%. None of the scenarios involve a net export of emissions and the GHG reduction benefits in the UK are proportionally greater than those overseas because of the tight link between UK livestock consumption and production. OTHER EFFECTS Other emissions All consumption scenarios are expected to reduce other emissions. Consumption Scenario 1 halves ammonia emissions. Reductions in nitrate emissions, eutrophication emissions generally, and acidification are almost as large (ca 45%). Biodiversity and carbon sequestration It is widely asserted that grassland, especially semi- natural grassland, has a higher biodiversity value compared with other types of vegetation, natural climax vegetation for example. It is often claimed that the retention of these grasslands is important for the continued delivery of some ecosystem services, for example, carbon sequestration. In many other European countries, the uplands and hills are usually wooded. For example, 32% and 29% of the land area in Germany and France respectively are wooded compared with 12% in the UK. Thus conversion to climax woodland or other forms of forestry is one obvious alternative use for released grassland. Our study has identified benefits for carbon sequestration in soil when grassland is converted to woodland (there should also be potential benefits in the use of harvested wood). Our analysis of land use statistics reveals the large proportion of UK land currently occupied by cattle and sheep. Without these livestock, this grassland (much of which is semi-natural grassland) would revert to the natural vegetation - deciduous woodland in many cases. Our results show that the use of livestock to retain semi-natural grasslands is not dependent on the current high level of livestock product consumption. A 50% reduction in demand still leaves a market which is large enough to support this activity. However, given how a declining market affects all suppliers, a livestock reduction scenario presents special challenges to the maintenance of semi-natural grasslands. Livestock systems provide a wide range of services that are currently used by society. In a reduction scenario, rural areas lose skills and employment in the livestock sector and there would be ramifications for linked industries such as the meat processing or veterinary sectors. Culturally important features, for example, hedgerows and stone walls, and much of the fauna and flora associated with grassland would be no longer needed. In the UK as a whole, land that is most likely to be taken out of production is associated with difficult production conditions. In England, upland moorland and common land now in a semi-natural state could change to fully natural vegetation cover. In upland areas, where the majority of re-wilding under Consumption Scenario 1 and 2 would be located, evidence suggests that various natural communities including scrub, bracken, bramble, and woodland with their own assemblage of flora and fauna are likely to develop, with potential increases in wild herbivores such as deer, hares, and rabbits. The majority of SSSIs currently under-grazed occur in lowland areas, for example in southern and eastern parts of England, and a lack of livestock results in difficulty in applying the grazing pressure required to maintain the semi-natural faunal and floral diversity. Recreational access to the uplands, which is now facilitated by open grassland landscapes, may be impaired and evidence suggests that visitors view the loss of traditional semi-natural landscapes, with associated meadows, hedges, and stone walls, negatively. Whilst a reduction in the current ecosystem service provision associated with livestock production from cattle and sheep can be expected under Consumption Scenarios 1 and 2, the net change is also dependent on the alternative use to which land is put. In upland SSSIs, overgrazing is often problematic and reducing grazing pressure may allow semi-natural habitats to recover, in particular dwarf shrub heaths, bogs, acid grassland and upland habitats. The release of large areas of land could also be used to diversify upland areas. For example, semi-natural upland woodlands have declined by 30-40% since the 1950s and the UK Habitat Action Plan has therefore included a target to increase the area of upland oak woodland through planting or natural regeneration of current open ground. In the lowlands, approximately 10% of the current arable land could be released for other activities, such as bioenergy crops, woodlands, recreational land, wetland creation, nature reserves, flood protection, carbon sequestration, and urban development. Each of these land uses will have its own specific range and flow of ecosystem services associated with it. While in general, the release of agricultural land with high environmental value from food production is not viewed as positive, Defra has concluded that there are likely to be situations where positive outcomes can occur. Economic considerations The reduction in the amount of land needed to supply the UK goes hand-in-hand with a reduction in the value added by agriculture supplying UK consumed food. A 50% reduction in livestock product consumption (Consumption Scenario 1) reduces the UK farm-gate value of livestock products from £7.6 to 3.5 billion. The farm-level economic impact of a change along these lines will depend crucially on what replacement output is found for the land released and on market effects that are beyond the scope of this study. One economic response scenario is that the land resource released remains in agriculture serving export markets. Another strategy is to use the land for non-food purposes. Using biomass energy cropping as a benchmark and assuming a price of £40/tonne dry matter biomass wood, we estimate that replacing the value of the food output of higher quality land released will be challenging, although it is reported that biomass energy is an economically viable alternative to sheep production on uplands.[1] Potential unexpected or unintended consequences Changes to UK crop production The general conclusion that a reduction in livestock production consumption will have little effect in total arable land requirements masks some important regional effects. This scenario will reduce arable crop production for livestock feed and increase arable production for direct human consumption, including a 50% increase in fruit and vegetables. The increase of 0.6 million ha of UK crops for human consumption includes an increase of about 0.2 million ha in potatoes, field vegetables and fruit. Research indicates that agricultural change driven by healthy eating recommendations will result in expansion of production of these crops particularly in the south and east of England.[2] Many of these crops are irrigated and some are protected using for example poly-tunnels. Whilst the change in land use is small in absolute terms, the local effects on water resources and landscape could be significant. It should be noted however that the increase in fresh fruit and vegetable consumption in these scenarios arise from the full implementation of current UK healthy eating guidelines (‘five-a- day') and are not just a consequence reduced livestock product consumption. Potential unexpected or unintended consequencesUneven distribution of economic effects The effect of a contraction in the value of farm output for UK markets will be unevenly distributed. There will be many losers, but also some winners. Given regional land quality characteristics, almost all Welsh, Scottish and Northern Irish farmers would be affected by output contraction counterbalanced by output growth in the south and east of England. Effects on overseas land use The reduction in livestock product consumption will have little effect overall on net overseas land needs. Release of land in South America and the USA used for animal feed, especially soy, will be counter-balanced by increases in a wide range of crops elsewhere. The consumption changes also reduce the need for overseas grassland. This affects three countries in particular: Ireland (dairy products, beef), New Zealand (butter and lamb), and South America (beef). The effect on Brazil is now small as imports have dwindled in recent years but the change would close off the UK as a growth market for Brazilian beef in the longer term. The effects on Ireland are particularly significant. •5. ConclusionThis study has clearly shown that UK land can support consumption change that reduces greenhouse gas emissions from the food system. The reduction in land needed to supply the UK that comes with a reduction in livestock product consumption brings potential environmental benefits and significant opportunities to deliver other products, including other ecosystem services, from UK agricultural land. The study has shown that some risks currently argued as arising from consumption change are small. In particular the study shows that arable land needs will not increase if the consumption of livestock products is decreased. The risk that emissions will be exported is also shown to be small. The identification of the significant potential benefits of consumption change combined with the low risks of unintended consequences has far-reaching implications for guidance to consumers and the development of agricultural policy. The results are broadly applicable to other European countries which means they are relevant to international policy development, for example the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy. [1] Heaton, R.J., Randerson, P.F., Slater, F.M. 1999. The economics of growing short rotation coppice in the uplands of mid-Wales and an economic comparison with sheep production. Biomass and Bioenergy 17: 59-71. [2] Jones, P.J. and Tranter, R.B. 2007. Modelling the impact of different policy scenarios on farm business management, land use and rural employment Project Document No. 13. Implications of a nutrition driven food policy for land use and the Rural Environment. Work package NoItem Open Access Forecasting the probability of commercial wind power development in lagging countries(Elsevier, 2022-04-13) Zwarteveen, Jan Willem; Angus, AndrewThere is significant under-utilization of wind energy resources, particularly in countries that have high wind potential. From the 67 highest wind potential countries, 39 have installed less than 500 MW of wind power capacity, while the remaining countries have an average installed capacity of 20,596 MW. In the lagging countries, there is significant potential for sustainable value creation, however large investment gaps need to be closed. Entering a new market for wind power Original Equipment Manufacturers is complex and requires a prediction of the future market size. Quantitative research to promote wind power internationalization is scarce. The objective of this paper is therefore to estimate the market size by predicting the probability of commercial wind development in the lagging countries. The purpose is to help the Original Equipment Manufacturers in their market entry decisions. The second purpose is to provide an example how to reduce risk required to close the Sustainable Development Goals financing gap. Using a binary logistic regression model based on technological path creation theory, the probability for the 39 lagging countries to enter the wind power commercialization stage was predicted. Results show that 12 of the lagging countries have a high probability to commercialize wind energy. A new simulation-based approach was presented to stimulate wind power market entry. The prediction of adoption probability proves useful to reduce risk required to close the financing gap to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals.Item Open Access The green economy: The link between corporate social responsibility and financial performance during economic shocks(Cranfield University, 2015-01) Donnelly, Myles; Angus, Andrew; Lickorish, Fiona A.A prominent claim within the literature is that ‘green’ firms are fundamentally more resilient to financial, environmental and social shocks, relative to firms that take no environmental action. To test this, this study compared the financial performance of firms in the UK FTSE4good, and similar firms outside the FTSE4Good through selected financial, environmental and social shocks Firstly the FTSE4Good indices were compared to the performance of the FTSE All-Share through several shocks. The results of which indicated through average returns, ranking performance and descriptive statistics that the FTSE4good Benchmark did not provide resilience in excess of the FTSE All-Share. The lack of significance was thought to be the consequence of diversification caused by the heterogeneity of each firm’s core business. The FTSE4good UK 50 showed neither and advantage nor disadvantage in resilience performance relative to the FTSE All-Share but the higher moments in the distribution of the returns (skewness and kurtosis) shows evidence of decreased risk in producing extreme negative returns. Furthermore, the discrepancies were also thought to be a consequence of the level at which FTSE4good include firms in the index series. To account for this discrepancy, FTSE4good’s ESG ratings were used to identify the best in class firms, eliminating middle ground performance. Only firms classified according to social performance showed conclusive evidence of an advantage for investors who could reduce their risk profile by selecting only firms with relatively high social responsibility ratings. The results show that the assumption that green firms are more resilient to shocks is too imprecise, at least when analysed in terms of financial performance across the period covered by this study. To become a more effective indicator of environmental, social and governance performance the FTSE4good must demand higher levels of performance from constituent firms and punish any transgressions more severely.Item Open Access Hidden flows and waste processing - an analysis of illustrative futures(Taylor & Francis, 2010-12-14T00:00:00Z) Schiller, Frank; Angus, Andrew; Billington, Stephen; Herben, Martin; Raffield, Thomas; Young, P. J.; Longhurst, Philip J.; Pollard, Simon J. T.An existing materials flow model is adapted (using Excel™ and AMBER™ model platforms) to account for waste and hidden material flows within a domestic environment. Supported by national waste data, the implications of legislative change, domestic resource depletion and waste technology advances are explored. The revised methodology offers additional functionality for economic parameters that influence waste generation and disposal. We explore this accounting system under hypothetical future waste and resource management scenarios, illustrating the utility of the model. A sensitivity analysis confirms that imports, domestic extraction and their associated hidden flows impact mostly on waste generation. The model offers enhanced utility for policy and decision makers with regard to economic mass balance and strategic waste flows, and may promote further discussion about waste technology choice in the context of reducing carbon budgItem Open Access The impact of corporate governance on corporate social responsibility at the board-level: a critical assessment(Elsevier, 2020-12-30) Bolourian, Soudabeh; Angus, Andrew; Alinaghian, LeilaThe purpose of this research is to synthesise and critically evaluate the extant literature investigating the role of board of directors as a core element of corporate governance in corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance. Adopting a systematic review approach, a sample of 67 studies from 18 highly regarded scholarly journals published between 1992 and 2020 is examined. Distinguishing between two board attributes of director characteristics and board structures, our study uncovers similarities and inconsistencies regarding the effects of various board characteristics and board structures on CSR performance. First, our study reveals that these attributes do not work in isolation but interact with each other and the context in which they are embedded in shaping CSR performance. Additionally, our review identifies substantial variation in conceptualisations, theoretical frameworks, the use of measurements and the contexts across studies providing a basis to offer a comprehensive synthesis of dominant scholarly discourses and an organising lens for future scholarship.Item Open Access An improved wavelet-ARIMA approach for forecasting metal prices(Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2014-03-31T00:00:00Z) Kriechbaumer, Thomas; Angus, Andrew; Parsons, David J.; Rivas Casado, MonicaMetal price forecasts support estimates of future profits from metal exploration and mining and inform purchasing, selling and other day-to-day activities in the metals industry. Past research has shown that cyclical behaviour is a dominant characteristic of metal prices. Wavelet analysis enables to capture this cyclicality by decomposing a time series into its frequency and time domain. This study assesses the usefulness of an improved combined wavelet-autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) approach for forecasting monthly prices of aluminium, copper, lead and zinc. The performance of ARIMA models in forecasting metal prices is demonstrated to be increased substantially through a wavelet- based multiresolution analysis (MRA) prior to ARIMA model fitting. The approach demonstrated in this paper is novel because it identifies the optimal combination of the wavelet transform type, wavelet function and the number of decomposition levels used in the MRA and thereby increases the forecast accuracy significantly. The results showed that, on average, the proposed framework has the potential to increase the accuracy of one month ahead forecasts by $53/t for aluminium, $126/t for copper, $50/t for lead and $51/t for zinc, relative to classic ARIMA models. This highlights the importance of taking into account cyclicality when forecasting metal prices.