Browsing by Author "Abba, Yahajja Zara Ibrahim"

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    A whole systems view to driving decentralised renewable energy investments in Sub-Saharan Africa.
    (Cranfield University, 2024-01) Abba, Yahajja Zara Ibrahim; Ozkan, Nazmiye; Drew, Gillian H.
    The scaling-up of decentralised renewable energy (DRE), such as solar mini- grids, is vital to achieving climate goals and universal electricity access in sub- Saharan African (SSA) countries. However, high investor risk perception continues to impede DRE investment in SSA, highlighting the importance of understanding investors' risk perception and developing appropriate risk mitigation actions. Yet, the risk management (RM) literature offers a fragmented and singular approach, where the multidimensional nature of risk factors and their interactions are overlooked. In addition, current studies do not consider DRE site- specificity alongside investor heterogeneity in quantifying the implications of mitigation actions on the evolution of investment decisions. In this context, and to address these research gaps, this thesis aims to develop, validate, and implement a unified RM framework incorporating an investment decision model to assess the impacts of actions on investment and electricity access spatially, thus offering a more holistic outcome for decision-makers. This thesis focuses on solar mini-grids in Nigeria, which has one of the highest electricity deficits in SSA. The framework is implemented in two phases. In phase one, investment risks and potential mitigations were evaluated as perceived by four investor groups and various stakeholders through questionnaires, semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and an analytic hierarchy process methodology. In phase two, a novel DRE decision-support model was deployed to enhance existing methods by using a system dynamics-agent-based modelling (SD-ABM) approach. This approach incorporates complex interactions and feedback between heterogeneous investor and location attributes to establish investment outcomes for various case study mitigation scenarios. This thesis the following contributions. Phase one provides new empirical data comprising: identifying 13 additional risk factors compared to the literature, establishing importance of risk factors as perceived by diverse investor groups in Nigeria, and proposing mitigation strategies, some of which were tested in phase two as scenarios. The results indicated variations in risk importance among investors, with the most critical risk factors being revenue risks, limited access to low-cost capital, currency risks, insecurity, and inadequate policy implementation. Phase two contributes to the knowledge of how complex system modelling can be applied to evaluate the impact of mitigation actions on the spatial evolution of DRE investment in a liberalised market. The case study results revealed that the most impactful mitigation scenarios were increased funding availability and the implementation of renewable energy mandates for domestic finance institutions. Whilst our findings confirm the criticality of concessional investors as identified in the literature, we find that meeting electrification targets necessitates incentivising risk-averse non-concessional-type investors. The developed model can additionally enable policymakers to explore the potential implications of further policy actions and investors to identify potential projects that suit their investment profiles during the feasibility phase.
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    Catalysing decentralised renewable energy investment in Nigeria: investor-focused risk evaluation and de-risking strategies
    (Elsevier, 2025-06-01) Abba, Yahajja Zara Ibrahim; Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye; Drew, Gillian H.
    Scaling up private investment in Decentralised Renewable Energy (DRE) is crucial for achieving universal electricity access in sub-Saharan Africa. Tailored de-risking actions based on investors' risk perceptions can facilitate investment. However, current literature provides a fragmented perspective of investor-specific DRE investment risks. Through a multi-step participatory approach involving an online survey, focus groups, and interviews, 40 multidimensional risk factors across six categories were evaluated using the analytical hierarchy process, to establish their significance among four investor groups: development finance institutions, domestic finance institutions, developers, impact investors. Overall, economic and financing risk categories emerged as most critical, while social and environmental risks were least prioritised. However, risk factor priorities varied among different investor groups, highlighting key mutual high-priority risk factors amounting to 37–58 % of risk weighting including currency volatility, low access to low-cost capital, revenue risk, and insecurity. Limited awareness of existing risk mitigation practices, cultural and behavioural barriers to energy use, and path dependence were identified as influential risk drivers. Evidence-based risk mitigation strategies such as priority sector lending mandates, portfolio aggregation, stronger policy implementation, social interventions, collaboration, and capacity development are recommended to facilitate DRE investment. This study serves as a reference for decision-makers to prioritise actions for catalysing DRE investment.
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    A holistic risk management framework for renewable energy investments
    (Elsevier, 2022-03-04) Abba, Yahajja Zara Ibrahim; Balta-Ozkan, Nazmiye; Hart, Phil
    Private investments are critical enablers to achieving energy access for over 770 million people worldwide. Despite decreasing capital costs, investments in renewable energy (RE) projects in developing countries are low due to unattractive risk-return profiles. Through understanding key risks drivers and their interactions, actionable insights can be drawn to mitigate investment risks, making energy more accessible. This paper reviews RE risks and methods used for risk assessment and mitigation for developed and developing countries with a focus on Sub-Saharan Africa countries (SSA). The review finds that while risk analysis and evaluation mainly employed semi-quantitative multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and system dynamics (SD) methods for developing countries, qualitative methods were used to identify mitigations. The methods assessed technical and economic risks at a minimum, while MCDA and SD methods can assess social, political, and policy risks. The efficacies of mitigations were tested using SD and quantitative methods such as agent-based modelling and Monte Carlo simulation. The paper further introduces a ‘holistic multi-dimensional investor risk management framework’ which can be used to identify actions to improve investment risks in a structured manner. The framework addresses four fundamental limitations observed in the existing literature, recognising that RE risks are complex and involve multidisciplinary perspectives having interactions and feedbacks with other risks, actors, and their actions. This review provides a valuable reference to investors, policymakers, and researchers, providing a catalogue of risks, methods deployed in literature, including a framework to identify impactful actions to improve risk levels.