Staff publications - Cranfield University at Silsoe

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Browsing Staff publications - Cranfield University at Silsoe by Author "Audsley, Eric"

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    Agricultural Futures and Implications for the Environment.
    (2005-11-01T00:00:00Z) Morris, Joe; Audsley, Eric; Wright, Iain A.; McLeod, Jim; Pearn, Kerry R.; Angus, Andrew; Rickard, Sean
    In this context, the overall aim of project is to explore possible long term futures for agriculture in England and Wales in order to inform decision-making on environmental policy and provide a 2 framework for Defra research on sustainable agriculture, climate change and other environmental issues.
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    A foliar disease model for use in wheat disease management decision support systems.
    (Blackwell Publishing Ltd., 2005-10-01T00:00:00Z) Audsley, Eric; Milne, Alice E.; Paveley, Neil
    A model of winter wheat foliar disease is described, parameterised and tested for Septoria tritici (leaf blotch), Puccinia striiformis (yellow rust), Erysiphe graminis (powdery mildew) and Puccinia triticina (brown rust). The model estimates diseaseinduced green area loss, and can be coupled with a wheat canopy model, in order to estimate remaining light intercepting green tissue, and hence the capacity for resource capture. The model differs from those reported by other workers in three respects. Firstly, variables (such as weather, host resistance and inoculum pressure) which affect disease risk are integrated in their effect on disease progress. The agronomic and meteorological data called for are restricted to those commonly available to growers by their own observations and from meteorological service networks. Secondly, field observations during the growing season can be used both to correct current estimates of disease severity and modify parameters which determine predicted severity. Thirdly, pathogen growth and symptom expression are modeled to allow the effects of fungicides to be accounted for as protectant activity (reducing infections which occur postapplication) and eradicant activity (reducing growth of pre-symptomatic infections). The model was tested against data from a wide range of sites and varieties, and was shown to predict the expected level of disease sufficiently accurately to support fungicide treatment decisions.
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    What can scenario modelling tell us about future European scale agricultural land use, and what not?
    (Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam., 2006-04-01T00:00:00Z) Audsley, Eric; Pearn, Kerry R.; Simota, C.; Cojocaru, G.; Koutsidou, E.; Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Trnka, M.; Alexandrov, V.
    Given scenarios describing future climates and socio-techno-economics, this study estimates the consequences for agricultural land use, combining models of crop growth and farm decision making to predict profitability over the whole of Europe, driven solely by soil and climate at each location. Each location is then classified by its profitability as intensive or extensive agriculture or not suitable for agriculture. The main effects of both climate and socio- economics were in the agriculturally marginal areas of Europe. The results showed the effect of different climates is relatively small, whereas there are large variations when economic scenarios are included. Only Finland's agricultural area significantly responds to climate by increasing at the expense of forests in several scenarios. Several locations show more difference due to climate model (PCM versus HadCM3) than emission scenario, because of large differences in predicted precipitation, notably the Ardennes switching to arable in HadCM3. Scenario modelling has identified several such regions where there is a need to be watchful, but few where all of the scenario results agree, suggesting great uncertainty in future projections. Thus, it has not been possible to predict any futures, though all results agree that in Central Europe, changes are likely to be relatively small.