Trade-offs are unavoidable in multi-objective adaptation even in a post-Paris Agreement world

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dc.contributor.authorPapadimitriou, Lamprini
dc.contributor.authorHolman, Ian P.
dc.contributor.authorDunford, Robert W.
dc.contributor.authorHarrison, Paula A.
dc.date.accessioned2019-08-29T15:22:16Z
dc.date.available2019-08-29T15:22:16Z
dc.date.issued2019-08-21
dc.description.abstractIn a post-Paris Agreement world, where global warming has been limited to 1.5 or 2 °C, adaptation is still needed to address the impacts of climate change. To reinforce the links between such climate actions and sustainable development, adaptation responses should be aligned with goals of environmental conservation, economic development and societal wellbeing. This paper uses a multi-sectoral integrated modelling platform to evaluate the impacts of a + 1.5 °C world to the end of the 21st century under alternative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for Europe. It evaluates the ability of adaptation strategies to concurrently improve a range of indicators, relating to sustainable development, under the constraints imposed by the contrasting SSPs. The spatial synergies and trade-offs between sustainable development indicators (SDIs) are also evaluated across Europe. We find that considerable impacts are present even under low-end climate change, affecting especially biodiversity. Even when the SDIs improve with adaptation, residual impacts of climate change affect all the SDIs, apart from sustainable production. All but one of the adaptation strategies have unintended consequences on one or multiple SDIs, although these differ substantially between strategies, regions and socio-economic scenarios. The exception was the strategy to increase social and human capital. Other strategies that lead to successful adaptation with limited unintended consequences are those aiming at adoption of sustainable behaviours and implementation of sustainable water management. This work stresses the continuing importance of adaptation even under 1.5 °C or 2 °C of global warming. Further, it demonstrates the need for policy-makers to develop holistic adaptation strategies that take account of the synergies and trade-offs between sectoral adaptation strategies, sectors and regions, and are also constrained by scenario context to avoid over-optimistic assessments.en_UK
dc.identifier.citationPapadimitriou L, Holman IP, Dunford R, Harrison PA. (2019) Trade-offs are unavoidable in multi-objective adaptation even in a post-Paris Agreement world. Science of the Total Environment, Volume 696, December 2019, Article number 134027en_UK
dc.identifier.issn0048-9697
dc.identifier.urihttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.134027
dc.identifier.urihttp://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/14484
dc.language.isoenen_UK
dc.publisherElsevieren_UK
dc.rightsAttribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International*
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/*
dc.subjectAdaptationen_UK
dc.subjectSustainable developmenten_UK
dc.subjectParis Agreementen_UK
dc.subjectTrade-offen_UK
dc.subjectShared socioeconomic pathwaysen_UK
dc.subjectSDGen_UK
dc.titleTrade-offs are unavoidable in multi-objective adaptation even in a post-Paris Agreement worlden_UK
dc.typeArticleen_UK

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