Development of a dynamic model for strategic port planning and investment

Abstract

Different levels of congesti'on are 'encountered in ports all over the world and particularly in developing countries. Depending on the volume of traffic flow over time, the changes of development in the economy and industrial activity and the random arrival and service pattern of ships; the optimum berthing capacity resulting in minimum cost at any future time period has to be determined to avoid undesirable repercussions. The existing methods fail to provide the links between the aggregate economy, demand and optimal berthing capacity for all time periods of the planning horizon, and conventional techniques based on static frameworks are used to arrive at optimal strategies for specific times into the future. This study is an attempt to remedy those difficulties and relate future demand to optimal berthing capacity in an interactive dynamic fashion. Three models are developed: a forecasting model linking seaborne trade to gross domestic product, population, productions consumption and elasticity of demand;, a simulation model relating the various demand levels to different port configurations; and an investment model relating the resulting congestion cost to capital cost, where an optimal strategy in berthing capacity is achieved for the years 19859 19909 1995 and 2000. The last model has been extended using the above mentioned points in time to result in an optimal berthing capacity for any future time period within the planning horizon 1985 - 2000. This model is validated through forecasting, simulating and appraising the 1992 and 1998 results and reducing the amount, costs and time of work by 75 per cent.