Citation:
C. Henriques, I. P. Holman, E. Audsley and K. Pearn, An interactive multi-scale integrated assessment of future regional water availability for agricultural irrigation in East Anglia and North West England. Climatic Change, Volume 90, Numbers 1-2, pp 89-111, September 2008.
Abstract:
A multi-scale approach has linked farm level decisions with regional water
availability assessments that allow for environmental water needs and the
competing demands for water. This is incorporated within a user-interactive
software tool, enabling the impact of a range of variables to be easily
examined. Climate change leads to increased potential irrigation demand in East
Anglia and North West England. Under baseline socio-economic conditions, results
suggest that such increased future water demands can be met in the North West,
but in the drier East Anglian region are counter to the decreasing water
availability under all climate scenarios. The decreasing availability is
moderated or exacerbated according to the environmental priorities of the future
socio-economic scenarios. Under economically focussed regional futures, water
supply availability increases at the expense of the environment, despite high
water demands. Under environmentally focussed futures, demand restrictions are
needed due to the further decreased water availability as a consequence of the
high environmental priority. Results show that the effectiveness of water
pricing for reducing irrigation demand is also scenario-dependent. Where
regional food production is important, irrigation demand is relatively price-
insensitive and abstraction controls will be most effective, whereas in a global
market-drive future, irrigation demand is shown to be price-sensitive.