dc.description.abstract |
Over the period 1961 – 90 the North East Arid Zone of Nigeria experienced a decline
in annual rainfall totals and increased aridity which placed increasing pressure on
rain fed, millet-based farming systems. The changes in seasonal rainfall total and
distribution have been examined and it has been shown that the rate of decline has
been consistent across the region. The decline has been dominated by reduction in
the number of rain days during the middle of the rainy season and there is no
evidence of a significant change in the length of the growing season. Over the same
time period, there has been a small, but significant, increase in mean air temperature
which has resulted in a small increase in potential evapotranspiration. Other climatic
parameters (vapour pressure, solar radiation and wind speed) appear to have
remained stable, although the paucity and dubious quality of much of the historical
meteorological data make rigorous statistical analysis difficult.
A water balance model (BALANCE) developed by the author, was calibrated for a
millet crop grown on a typical sandy loam soil in Maiduguri (Nigeria). The model
was necessarily parsimonious, but was shown to perform well when calibrated
against observed soil water content. However, the empirical nature and high
sensitivity of key parameters relating to bare soil evaporation and drainage mean that
it is difficult to parameterise the model by laboratory, or independent field
measurements.
Applying the calibrated model to daily rainfall and average evapotranspiration data
from Nguru (Nigeria) for the period 1961 – 93 showed that, with the exception of
extreme drought years, the increased aridity would have had little impact on the
viability of traditional millet and millet-cowpea intercropping systems prior to the
early 1980s. However, after that date, predicted seasonal millet transpiration, and
hence predicted yields, have declined, and long duration cowpea intercrops, which
were traditionally matured on residual soil moisture after the millet harvest have had
insufficient water.
Whilst the BALANCE model has been useful in examining the impact of climatic
variability on agro-hydrology, it is not a crop physiological model and the interaction
between soil water and crop development is poorly represented. The model cannot, therefore be applied with confidence to investigate the potential yield benefits of
physical or agronomic interventions to alleviate the impacts of aridity. Although
more complex models exist to do this, they require detailed parameterisation of the
crop physiology, which was not possible within the scope of this study. |
en_UK |